Managing Decision Making

1
Managing Decision Making

• (for Systems Analysis)

2
Decision-Making Processes

• The result of the analysis must be integrated
  into the organization
• Decision-making how to handle problems
  integrating the system
• Useful, too, at all stages of working with the
  client and within groups.

3
Types of Decisions

• Programmed structured, occurs frequently
• Non-programmed unstructured, rare
• Ex. people follow a script for efficiency cant
  break out - repercussions requires thought and
  responsibility
• Conditions
• States of certainty - know the alternatives
• Under risk - higher risk of mistake
• State of uncertainty - dont know the risks or
  alternatives

4
Rational DM

• Classic model assumptions that people act on
  logic and rational bases assumes
• Decision makers have complete information about
  the situation alternatives
• DMs can eliminate uncertainty to achieve a
  condition of certainty
• DMs can evaluate all aspects logically
  rationally
• (Sounds good, but rarely is the case hence the
  need for analysts!)

5
Steps in Rational DM

• Recognize define the situation
• Identify alternatives
• Evaluate alternatives feasibility,
  satisfactoriness, consequences
• Select best alternative
• Implement choice
• Follow-up and evaluate the results

6
Steps in Rational DM

• Recognize define the situation
• Recognize something (human/machine) isnt working
• Identify alternatives
• The more important the decision, the more
  alternatives needed - e.g., raises for staff
• Evaluate alternatives feasibility,
  satisfactoriness, consequences
• Consequence, e.g., management doesnt follow 2.1
• Select best alternative
• Situational factors and manager chooses for his
  situation cant implement the change, so do
  short-term benefit
• Implement choice
• Incorporate change, but higher-up org must
  approve
• Follow-up and evaluate the results
• Measure benefit - usually quantified data

7
Model of classic DM evaluation of alternatives
8
Behavioral Aspects

• Administrative model
• Managers have (1) incomplete and imperfect info
• (2) are constrained by bounded rationality and
• (3) tend to satisfice accept alternative that
  meets some minimum standard
• Managers tend to be limited by their values and
  unconscious reflexes, skills, and habits
• Examples?

9
Political Forces

• People resist change some embrace it
  uncertainty
• Intuition
• This means more work! Something new means I have
  to learn something new!
• Escalation of Commitment
• Manager has made the decision when challenged
  manager stays with it regardless of error
• Respond by discussing risk propensity

10
Risk Propensity

• How much will the manager risk when making the
  decision to integrate your work? Committed to
  training, maintenance, etc.
• Interaction groups get people to meet, convince
  em
• Delphi groups experts (admin managers)
  discuss PR communicating their authorial
  influence brings change
• Nominal groups experts (admin managers) meet
  to discuss their authority forces the change

11
Group and teams