Important Trends In Software Engineering

1
Important Trends In Software Engineering

• Global e-Business Program
• Seattle University
• Summer 2003
• Everald E. Mills, Ph.D. CSSE Dept. Seattle
  University

2
Software Engineering

• What is Software Engineering ?
• Where is Software Engineering today ?
• Where is it going ?

3
I. What Is Software Engineering?

• Is it
• Programming ?
• Computer science ?
• Engineering ?
• A real discipline ?
• A professional activity ?

4
Some Basic Definitions

• Software -- Computer programs, procedures, and
  possibly associated documentation and data
  pertaining to the operation of a computer system.
• Engineering -- Application of systematic,
  disciplined, quantifiable approach to some
  process.

5
The Software Process (Life Cycle)

• Development
• Operation
• Maintenance
• Corrective
• Enhancement

6
Resulting Definition Of Software Engineering

• Definition -- The application of systematic,
  disciplined, quantifiable approaches to software
  development, operation and maintenance.
• - IEEE Standard 610.12-1990, IEEE Standard
  Glossary of Software Engineering Terminology,
  IEEE Standards Collection Software Engineering,
  IEEE (1997).

7
Why do we need it ?

• The Software Crisis
• First identified at NATO Conference, Garmisch,
  Germany, 1968
• Characterized by software which is
• of poor quality
• over budget
• late
• Naur Randell (1969)

8
II. Where Is Software Engineering Today ?

• Although significant improvements have been made
  in specific areas, the rapidly evolving nature of
  the software industry has resulted in little
  overall improvement in the overall situation --
  in fact ..

9
The Crisis Persists

• More than 30 years later, the software crisis
  is still with us
• Major problems are still the same
• poor quality (correctness, bugs, usability,
  maintainability, etc)
• over budget
• delivered late, or not at all

10
Software Quality Problems

• Correctness, bugs, usability, etc
• Examples --
• U.S. Strategic Air Command alert (Nov 9, 1979) --
  alert scramble in response to report that Soviet
  Union had launched missile attack
• Therac 25 medical linear accelerator treatment
  device -- two patients died of severe overdoses
  of radiation (1985-1987)
• Gulf War (1991) -- U.S. Patriot missile defense
  failed to detect Scud missile due to time error
  -- 28 Americans died as a result.

11
Schedule/Cost Problems

• An example -- U.S. Internal Revenue Service
• Hired Sperry Corporation to build automated
  income tax form processing system (1980-1985)
  --the resulting system couldnt handle the work
  load, cost almost twice what was expected, and
  had to be replaced soon after initial
  installation. By 1996, the situation had not
  improved.

12
Not A Crisis -- But A Chronic Condition

• Software Crisis has lasted too long to be a
  crisis -- rather, its a persistent, chronic
  condition of the software business
• Software Engineering is the proposed solution to
  the problem. Its aims are
• production of fault-free software, delivered on
  time and within budget, that satisfies the users
  needs, and is easy to maintain.

13
A Closer Look At The Software Life Cycle

• Development
• Operation
• Maintenance
• Most problems can be traced to the Development
  phase of the life cycle, so most efforts to
  improve software have focused on this aspect.

14
Software Development (1)

• In the early days of computing, software
  development was viewed as consisting only of
  coding, or programming the computer
• It was a black art, practiced by skilled (?)
  individuals, usually working alone
• This approach worked relatively well when
  programs were small simple

15
Software Development (2)

• As computer systems (both hardware and software)
  have become larger and more complex, the software
  development process has also become more and more
  complex -- and the simple art of programming in
  the small is no longer capable of coping with
  the task.

16
Software Development (3)

• Changes in software over time
• grew in size from 10s or 100s of lines to
  1000s to 1,000,000s of lines of code
• operating environment changed from simple batch
  operations to complex multiprogramming systems,
  to time-sharing and distributed computing to
  todays Internet network computing environment.

17
Software Development (4)

• Today, the software development process is
  generally considered to consist of a number of
  essential activities
• requirements gathering and analyis
• design
• implementation (I.e. programming)
• testing, verification, validation
• installation
• (followed by operation and maintenance)

18
Software Development (5)

• Important conclusions -
• todays typical software project involves large,
  complex programs which are too difficult for any
  one person to handle
• a number of persons must work in teams in order
  to complete any such project in a reasonable time
  
• management skills are as important as technical
  skills

19
Software Development (6)

• Software Engineering today --
• Recognizes that the technical process of software
  development cannot succeed without the
  application of sound management principles
• Software projects can fail for either technical
  or managerial reasons -- but most often project
  failures result from poor or nonexistent
  management practices.

20
Software Development (7)

• Major attempts to improve software results
• Software Engineering Institute (SEI) -- founded
  by U.S. Department of Defense, in conjunction
  with Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA
• SEI developed Capability Maturity Model (CMM) for
  assessing software capability

21
SEI Capability Maturity Model

• Maturity Level 1
• Maturity Level 2
• Maturity Level 3
• Maturity Level 4
• Maturity Level 5
• Compare ISO 9000 and SPICE (Software Process
  Improvement and Capability dEtermination).

• Lowest level, ad hoc
• Repeatable process
• Defined process
• Managed process
• Optimizing process, with feedback and continuous
  improvement

22
CMM -- Changes Needed To Move From Level to Level

• Level 1 to Level 2
• Level 2 to Level 3
• Level 3 to Level 4
• Level 4 to Level 5

• Process discipline, Project mgmt.
• Process definition, Engineering mgmt.
• Process control, Quantitative mgmt.
• Continuous process improvement, Change mgmt.

23
Other Attempts To Improve Software Quality

• ISO 9000 -- (International Standard Organization)
  -- 9000 series standards, pertain to improvement
  of design, development, production activities,
  not just for software
• SPICE (Software Process Improvement Capability
  dEtermination) -- an international process
  improvement initiative, over 40 countries
  involved
• CMM, ISO 9000, SPICE -- all aimed at improving
  the software development process

24
Results Of Process Improvement Raytheon Corp. --
1987-1992

• Improvement efforts
• Invested about 1 Million each year for five
  years in process improvement activities
• -- IEEE Software, July 1993

• Results
• 7.70 return on every dollar invested
• 130 increase in productivity
• evolution from CMM Level 1 to Level 3

25
Application Of CMM

• Application of CMM does facilitate software
  process improvement , lower costs and improve
  productivity
• Progression through CMM maturity levels is
  time-consuming and difficult
• Achievement of Level 3 requires four years on
  average
• -- IEEE Software, May/June 1999

26
Todays Software Industry

• A 1999 report indicates that, by 1997
• only 2 of software organizations had achieved
  CMM Level 4 or 5
• almost 62 were still at Level 1
• since it requires about 4 years to achieve Level
  3, the number of organizations at top Levels (4
  5) is still not large (in 2003)
• -- IEEE Software, May/June 1999

27
Characteristics Of Todays Software Industry

• Driven by intense market forces, including
  persistent pressure to deliver software on
  unrealistic time schedules
• Continuing rapid evolution of software
  methodologies and systems
• Unable to adopt and utilize proven methodologies
  in timely fashion

28
Todays Software Industry (1)

• Even though much is now known about how to
  improve software production, the overall state is
  not much better than ever, due to the urgency of
  meeting unrealistic delivery schedules and the
  continuing rapid evolution of the software
  industry
• -- i.e. poor quality, late delivery, over budget

29
Todays Software Industry (2)

• Software glitches cost the U.S. economy 59.5
  billion each year , according to a recent U.S.
  Department of Commerce study approximately 50
  per cent due to users, and 50 per cent due to
  vendors and developers .
• -- ACM TECHNews, July 1, 2002

30
III.Where Is Software Engineering Going ?
Important Factors.

• Market pressures
• short production cycles, unrealistic delivery
  dates
• shortages of skilled personnel
• New methodologies/technologies
• Technology transfer limitations

31
Market Pressures(1) Scheduling Considerations

• Management personnel often agree to unrealistic
  schedules, due to market pressure and desire to
  beat the competition
• Results
• unrealistic schedules
• untested, defective products
• customer dissatisfaction

32
Market Pressures(2) Estimating Software Project
Costs

• Enlightened software organizations are making
  increased use of proven, quantitative techniques
  for estimating project size, and the
  corresponding requirements for effort and
  schedule.
• Improved (quantitative) estimates help avoid
  early commitments to impossible scheduled
  delivery dates.

33
Market Pressures(3) Software Cost Estimation
Tools

• Numerous approaches, including
• estimation by analogy
• lines of code techniques (LOC)
• Function Points methods (IFPUG)
• COCOMO model, Boehm (COCOMO II)
• Walston/Felix model
• In 2002, over 50 cost estimation tools marketed
  in the US, 25 in Europe
• -- Software Cost Estimation in 2002,
  CrossTalk, June 2002

34
Market Pressures(4) -- Shortages Of Skilled
Personnel

• Late 90s to 2000 in US, dot.com frenzy led to
  major shortages of skilled personnel
• Solution more out-sourcing and importation of
  skilled workers
• Dot.com bust of 2001 -- eliminated shortages
  increased competition in world software
  development market

35
New Methodologies (1)

• New methodologies continue to appear, more
  rapidly than they can effectively be put into use
• Major Problem How does one know whether a new
  methodology is worth putting into use ? (Some
  may not be.)
• Adoption requires major investment -- will there
  be a positive ROI ?

36
New Methodologies (2)

• Programming paradigms
• ad hoc
• functional
• procedural
• structured
• object-oriented
• pair programming
• XP (eXtreme Programming)
• next ??

37
New Methodologies (3)

• CASE Tools
• (Computer Aided Software Engineering)
• Todays complex programming environments require
  complex, sophisticated software tools -- which,
  again, raise the question of adoption costs and
  ROI (usually positive in the long run, but
  negative in the short run).

38
New Methodologies (4)

• CASE Tool Paradox
• CASE tools, such as Integrated Development
  Environments (IDEs), such as Visual Basic, etc,
  make it easy to develop software components --
  even if user of the tool has no understanding of
  underlying software concepts gt such tools can be
  dangerous !

39
New Methodologies (5)

• CASE Tool Paradox (2)
• Although CASE tools reduce the amount of effort
  required to produce software components, they
  actually increase the amount of background
  knowledge the user needs to use the tool safely
  and effectively.

40
New Methodologies (6)

• Software Project Management techniques are
  steadily improving, and being applied more
  effectively.
• Increasingly quantitative approach, using
  software metrics
• specific project plans
• detailed task breakdowns
• firm milestones -- specific results on scheduled
  dates
• regular reviews and assessments

41
Technology Transfer Problems

• Engineering technology tends to follow a 15-year
  cycle from initial concept to application in a
  production environment
• concept development - 5 years
• prototyping, and initial use - 5 years
• use in production environment - 5 years
• -- Software Engineering, Pressman, 4th ed, 835.

42
Important Trends

• Software Methodologies
• Computing Environment
• Educational Trends

43
Software Methodologies UML World Conference,
June 11, 2001

• Ivar Jacobson, one of 3 amigos (founders of
  UML) -- identified 4 major trends in software
  development
• 1. Reusable components -- stop repeating work
• 2. More up-front testing -- products with fewer
  defects
• 3. Platform transparency -- reduce todays
  programming complexity
• 4. UML all the way down -- I.e. automatically
  produce final product from UML specifications
  (automated programming -- long time goal!)

44
Software Methodologies -- (2)

• Ivar Jacobson -- There is no technical barrier
  -- only a political barrier to achieving the
  four goals listed above. The political problem
  is due to the huge investments that have been
  made in current programming languages, and
  integrated development environments, replete with
  compilers, debuggers, GUI builders, and other
  productivity-enhancing features.

45
Software Methodologies (3)

• Productivity/Success Rate of software developers
  varies widely
• More successful developers utilize
  rapid-phased-iterative techniques where
  appropriate rather than sticking to one
  classical (waterfall) approach
• New techniques can be applied successfully to
  both small large projects

46
Computing Environment

• Internet/Web-based services market
• will exceed 50 Billion per year by 2005
• Fierce competition
• Microsoft .Net
• vs
• J2EE (Java 2 Enterprise Edition) -- being
  developed and promoted by Hewlett-Packard, IBM,
  Sun Microsystems, etc
• - Net Rivals .., USA Today (07/09/01)

47
Computing Environment (2) Computer/Information
Security

• Some recent reports
• A recent survey of 300 North American companies
  revealed that they suffered 1.2 Million computer
  virus attacks during a recent 20 month period
• Last year (2001) cyberattacks caused about 12
  Billion in damage and losses, including breaches
  of an airport and dam
• -- ACMTECHNews, 03/04/02 05/07/02

48
Computing Environment (3) Other harmful
activities -- SPAM

• All computer users are being deluged by unwanted
  email messages SPAM
• Some estimate that up to 40 of all email on the
  Internet is SPAM
• Intentional threats (viruses, etc) and SPAM are
  greatly increasing the cost of computer system
  administration

49
Educational Trends

• Software Engineering has matured as an
  educational discipline
• Software Engineering Body Of Knowledge (SEBOK)
  has been defined
• BS/MS degree programs have been initiated (1st
  BS/SE Rochester Institute of Technology 1996)
  and will soon be accredited by ABET (US)

50
Educational Trends (2)

• In the past, students have pursued degrees in CS
  to prepare for software development work (i.e.
  software engineering ?)
• In the future, students preparing for career in
  software engineering will be expected to have
  earned degree in SE (not CS) especially if
  accredited

51
Educational Trends (3)

• Prediction approaching long period of
  adjustment between academic computer science
  programs and academic software engineering
  programs which may be painful
• This leads us back to our original question
  What is Software Engineering ?

52
Educational Trends (4)

• Major problem ?
• Despite our original attempt to present a soundly
  based definition for software engineering,
  there are many different views of software
  engineering as shown in the following diagrams.

53
CS
SE
54
SE
CS
55
CS
SE
56
SE
CS
57
SE
CS
58
CS
SE
59
CS
SE
60
CS
SE
61
SE
CS
62
SE
CS
63

• Oh and dont forget --

64
Math
Physics
EE
CS
SE
IS/MIS
CompEngr
65

• So whats your view ?

66
So -- Where Is Software Engineering Going ?

• Full steam ahead, into an even more complex
  software environment, including larger and more
  complex systems, greater security risks and
  increased needs for professional education,
  integrity and competence. Unfortunately, there
  is no definitive road map to help us find our way.

67
The End

• Thank you for your patience.
• Questions ?
• Comments ?

68

• Thank you for coming to visit us at Seattle
  University !
• We hope that you enjoyed your visit, and learned
  a lot while you were here.
• Have a pleasant trip back to Korea !
• Thats all, folks!