Estimating C

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Estimating CI waste arisings
Glyn Jones Environmental Economist
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Contents

• Background
• Estimates and forecasts
• Method
• Issues

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Background

• Planners need CI data
• CI data is sparse and difficult to collect
• Three historic surveys
• Forecasting too simplistic

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Method estimation of current arisings

• ONS data for each region
• Clean/adjust NW data PPC data
• Extrapolate to other regions
• Sector by size band
• Sector by waste type (SOC)

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For each cell
Other regions universe of companies no. of
companies by SIC and sizeband
Adjusted NW survey results tonnages by SIC and
sizeband
X
NW universe of companies no. of companies by
SIC and sizeband
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Method estimation of current arisings

• ONS data for each region
• Clean/adjust NW data PPC data
• Extrapolate to other regions
• Sector by sizeband
• Sector by waste type (SOC)
• Validation

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Method forecasting future arisings

• Need to link forecasts to expected shape of
  future economy
• Use outputs from regional models

Changes the volume and type of future waste
streams
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GMFM data as example
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Declining industrial employment
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Expanding service sector
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Method forecasting future arisings

• Method forecasting future arisings
• Need to link forecasts to expected shape of
  future economy
• Use outputs from regional models
• What-if scenario tool

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CIWhat-if ?
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Issues

• Data availability
• ONS ok
• PPC delayed
• Regional models nearly there, enough detail?
• Validation timescale
• Sensitivity analysis

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Suggested timeline

• Regional estimates by December 12th
• Validation by December 19th
• By ADAS (deposit data) and regions
• Forecasts by January 9th
• Forecast validation by January 16th
• Final report January 30th