2018 Emissions Projection Inventory Summary

1
2018 Emissions Projection Inventory Summary

• VISTAS Technical Analysis Workgroup and
• Planning Workgroup Meeting
• Atlanta, GA
• August 25, 2004
• Gregory Stella
• VISTAS Technical Advisor Emission Inventories
• Alpine Geophysics, LLC

2
Emission Projection Methodology

• Initial 2018 projection inventory designed to be
  used in emissions sensitivity modeling
• For this application, ultimate accuracy of the
  inventory was not required
• Intent to closely represent emissions produced by
  subsequent, more thorough emission projection
  process

3
Emission Projection Methodology (2)

• Initial 2018 inventory relied on existing
  information available in early 2004
• EPAs Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) future
  year forecasts
• VISTAS states and stakeholders reviewed and
  revised these factors

4
Emission Projection Scenarios

• VISTAS Planning Workgroup developed list of Base
  Case assumptions for 2018
• based on recently promulgated emission reductions
• Federal
• State
• Local
• Site-specific

5
Emission Projection Scenarios (2)

• Base 1 (Promulgated as of January 1, 2004)
• Atlanta / Northern Kentucky / Birmingham 1-hr
  SIPs
• Gulf Power (Crist 7) SCR application
• Heavy Duty Diesel (2007) Engine Standard (HDD)
• Large Spark Ignition and Recreational Vehicle
  Rule
• North Carolina Clean Smokestacks Act
• NOx RACT in 1-hr NAA SIPs
• NOx SIP Call (Phase I- except where states have
  adopted II already e.g. NC)
• Petroleum Refinery Initiative (October 1, 2003
  notice MS WV)
• RFP 3 Plans where in place for one hour plans
• TECO VEPCO Consent Agreements
• Tier 2 Tailpipe
• Title IV for Phase I and II EGUs
• VOC 2-, 4-, 7-, and 10-year MACT Standards
• Combustion Turbine MACT

6
Emission Projection Scenarios (3)

• Base 2a
• Base 1 assumptions
• 8-hr attainment plans (e.g., NOx RACT)
• Industrial Boiler/Process Heater/RICE MACT
• Nonroad Diesel Rule (Tier 4)
• NOx SIP Call (Phase II remaining States IC
  engines)
• TVA scrubber application
• Interstate Air Quality Rule (IAQR) (Now CAIR)
• Base 2b
• Base 2a assumptions
• Excludes IAQR

7
Emission Data Sources

• Domain-wide inventory comprised of multiple
  components
• VISTAS 2018 EI Contractor Developed Emissions and
  Inputs
• RPO Provided Data (via direct solicitation from
  RPOs)
• WRAP 2002 point and area source emissions
• WRAP agricultural fire emissions (elevated)
• CENRAP 2002 area source NH3 emissions
• U.S. EPA Proposed Clean Air Interstate Rule
  (CAIR) Inventories
• U.S. EPA NEI 2002 (Preliminary)
• Non-VISTAS area and mobile source emissions
• U.S. EPA 2001 Modeling Platform Emissions
• Non-VISTAS point source emissions
• Canadian / Mexican Emissions same as Phase I

8
Other Data Sources

• Economic Growth Analysis System (EGAS) 4.0
• County-level SIC or SCC-based growth rates
• Energy Information Administration (EIA)
• Generation demand data by energy region
• EPAs CAIR Inventories and Factors
• Control factors for all source sectors derived
  from CAIR inventories of future years or
  interpolation
• Both Base and Control case needed and used
• Based on data from proposal of rule
• Other VISTAS-Specific Adjustments
• State provided VMT growth rates, Southern Company
  hourly data, NC hog farm moratorium, etc.

9
2018 Future Year Emissions

• National, Episodic Emissions (January / July)
• VOC, NOx, CO, SO2, PM-10, PM-2.5, NH3
• EGU, Non-EGU Point, Area, Nonroad, Highway
• Unit or County-SCC level
• Biogenic Emissions
• BEIS 3.09
• Converted to IDA Format Required By Model

10
VISTAS EGU Projections

• EGU workgroup recommended two options for base
  case inventories
• Choosing two options provided complementary data
  to inform decisions on the final Base Case

11
VISTAS EGU Projections Option 1

• Modify EPAs Proposed CAIR IPM runs
• Extract VISTAS sources from the final IPM parsed
  files and integrate data modifications provided
  and approved by VISTAS States and EGU workgroup
• Retain non-VISTAS state sources at CAIR
  projections
• Use winter season data for January episode
• Use summer season data for July episode

12
VISTAS EGU Projections Option 2

• Projections calculated from VISTAS 2002 base year
  inventories
• Used VISTAS 2002 planning year inventory (e.g.,
  typical) as the basis
• Economic Growth Analysis System (EGAS) 4.0 or the
  Energy Information Administration (EIA)
• Estimates of reduction percentages as calculated
  from EPAs CAIR files
• Refined future emission rates from stakeholder
  input regarding utilization rates, capacity,
  retirements, and new units

13
VISTAS EGU Point Source Data

• Annual 2018 NIF 3.0 files developed by MACTEC
• Includes EGU point source data
• State and stakeholder reviewed, revised,
  submitted
• Passed through stack parameter QA tests
• Hourly EGU profiles generated to temporally
  allocate emissions during appropriate episodes
• Used historical average of EPA CEM and
  stakeholder data
• Prepared hourly emission estimates and SMOKE
  input files for matching sources

14
VISTAS Stakeholder Submissions

• Southern Company
• AL, GA, FL, MS facilities
• Submitted hourly emissions and heat input for all
  sources
• Many which were not CEM sources
• Reviewed by States and SIWG
• All data approved and used

15
VISTAS Non-CEM EGU Pollutants

• Current modeling paradigm uses temporal profiles
  for non-CEM based pollutants
• VISTAS generated hourly emissions for VOC, CO,
  PM, NH3 using hourly to annual heat input ratios
• Allowed related non-CEM emissions to be
  distributed with CEM-based data
• Prevented non-CEM emissions to be distributed
  when unit not operating
• e.g., we no longer see VOC/CO/PM/NH3 emissions
  when NOx/SO2 are zero

16
VISTAS Non-CEM EGU Sources

• Used State CEM averages to create new EGU-based
  profiles
• Historical average of 2000, 2001, and 2002
• By month
• By day of week
• By hour of day (weekday/weekend)
• NOx, SO2, and heat input
• Takes into account seasonal control rates
• Profiles applied to units based on SCC-pollutant
  combination
• 101xxxxx/201xxxxx
• NOx, SO2, Other

17
Example Profiles Using CEM DataMonthly NOx
Emissions - Typical
18
Example Profiles Using CEM DataMonthly SO2
Emissions - Typical
19
Example Profiles Using CEM DataMonthly Heat
Input - Typical
20
Example Profiles Using CEM DataJuly NOx
Emissions Typical Weekday
21
Example Profiles Using CEM DataJanuary SO2
Emissions Typical Weekend
22
VISTAS Non-EGU Point Source Data

• Annual 2018 NIF 3.0 files developed by MACTEC
• Includes non-EGU point source data
• State and stakeholder reviewed, revised,
  submitted
• Passed through stack parameter QA tests
• EGAS Version 4.0
• Including VISTAS specific modifications
• DOE-EIA Energy Efficiency Factors
• Applied to combustion source types
• Other stakeholder provided modifications to CAIR
  control factors to simulate VISTAS Base Cases

23
Non-VISTAS Non-EGU Point Sources

• Start with non-VISTAS base year inventory
• Also developed under Task 3c
• Combination RPO 2002 / EPA 2001 emissions
• EGAS Version 4.0
• Applied at SIC-level
• DOE-EIA Energy Efficiency Factors
• Applied to combustion source types
• Same control factors as modeled by EPA in CAIR
• No CEM derived factors used in non-VISTAS states

24
VISTAS Fire Emissions

• 2018 fire emissions based on typical year fire
  acreage
• Acreage estimates collected from States and
  federal agencies for recent time periods
  representative of typical conditions or readily
  available
• Typical based on a minimum of five years of
  data where possible
• State or county level of aggregation for each
  fire type
• These data were then used to normalize the 2002
  base year inventory to typical conditions
• Wildfire acreage 7 VISTAS States
• Prescribed fire acreage 6 VISTAS States
• Average of State data used for non-reporting
  areas
• North and South State tiers

25
VISTAS Fire Emissions (2)

• Modeling files generated using more specific raw
  data
• Includes acres, dates, and locations of fire
  activity
• Dates and locations same as 2002 fires
• Generated elevated fire file for sources with
  appropriate data elements
• Non-elevated sources retained in county-level
  area source file

26
VISTAS Agricultural and Land Clearing
FiresTypical Year Adjustment Factor
27
VISTAS Prescribed and WildfireTypical Year
Adjustment Factor
28
VISTAS Prescribed and WildfireAcres Burned
29
VISTAS Agricultural and Land Clearing FiresAcres
Burned
30
Non-VISTAS Fire Emissions

• Other RPOs contacted for recent data availability
• WRAP provided agricultural fires in elevated form
• Based on BSM 2018 forecast
• No other RPO responded with data
• All other areas from EPA Preliminary 2002 NEI
• Applied EGAS 4.0 growth factor
• Retained as county-level area source emissions

31
VISTAS Onroad Emissions

• Initial 2018 VMT estimates were developed at the
  vehicle class (i.e., LDGV, LDGT1, LDGT2, etc.)
• Specific growth factors for county and vehicle
  class derived from linear growth estimates of VMT
  from EPAs Heavy Duty-Diesel Engine Rulemaking
  inventories
• Based on Mobile workgroup review, 2002 MOBILE
  input files were revised to reflect appropriate
  factors (i.e., I/M, fuel programs, etc.) in the
  forecast year
• MOBILE input files run through SMOKE for episode-
  specific meteorological conditions

32
VISTAS Nonroad Emissions

• NONROAD model sources
• Four seasonal NONROAD model runs at the county
  level for each scenario and for each VISTAS state
  
• Seasonal runs account for differences in average
  seasonal temperature, as well as RVP
• Locomotives/Aircraft/CMV
• Projected emissions from 2002 to 2018 using
  growth rates developed at the county-SCC-pollutant
  level from EPAs Nonroad Diesel and CAIR
  modeling inventories
• Forecasts described as already considering
  economic growth and in-place control measures
• Additional adjustments for large spark ignition
  and recreational vehicle rule applied

33
Non-VISTAS Onroad and Nonroad Emissions

• County-level emissions taken from EPA inventories
• Heavy-Duty Diesel or CAIR
• Interpolation of end years to generate 2018 data
• Modeled with temporal factors from SMOKE

34
VISTAS Area Source Data

• Annual 2018 NIF 3.0 files developed by MACTEC
• Includes remaining area source data (no fires)
• State and stakeholder reviewed, revised,
  submitted
• EGAS Version 4.0
• VISTAS specific modifications
• Other stakeholder provided modifications to CAIR
  control factors to simulate VISTAS Base Cases

35
Non-VISTAS Area Sources

• Start with non-VISTAS 2002 inventory
• Also developed under Task 3c
• EGAS Version 4.0
• Applied at SCC-level
• DOE-EIA Energy Efficiency Factors
• Applied to combustion source types
• Same control factors as modeled by EPA in CAIR

36
Canadian Emissions

• Same as Base Year and Phase I
• Canadian Criteria Air Contaminants (CAC)
• National, Annual Inventory
• Sub-Provincial Level (Equivalent to County)
• Same Criteria Pollutants as NEI
• 1995 Area / Mobile Publicly Available
• 1990 Point Sources Modeled
• Latest data still confidential

37
Mexican Emissions

• Same as Base Year and Phase I
• Big Bend National Park Regional Aerosol and
  Visibility Observational (BRAVO)
• 1999 Criteria Emissions Inventory
• 10 Northern Mexican States
• First Regional Scale Mexican Emissions Inventory
  for this Area
• Point, Area, Mobile Sources
• Developed from Urban Scale Factors
• Supplemented with INEGI Activity Data

38
Emissions QA/QC

• All emission data sets reviewed for proper format
  and content
• Ensured appropriate structure for conversion
• Verified all categories represented when expected
• Reviewed for outlying data points
• In cases where errors found, verified original
  data source and corrected or revised with
  appropriate value

39
Emissions QA/QC (2)

• Emission tables and charts developed for
  State-to-State comparisons and to previous
  versions
• County-level density maps plotted to highlight
  hot spots and empty cells
• Direct comparisons to EPA modeling inventories
  for ballpark comparison of growth and control

40
Comparison to EPA Forecasts

• It was not expected that this initial emission
  projection to 2018 would exactly replicate those
  previously completed by other agencies
• In fact, due to the regionally-specific
  information provided through VISTAS stakeholder
  groups, this projection should be unique
• Not only has VISTAS chosen to use a set of growth
  factors slightly different that EPAs most recent
  set, we have attempted to incorporate regional,
  State, local, and facility-based responses to
  recent Federal, State, and local pollution
  reduction actions into the forecast

41
Comparison to EPA Forecasts (2)

• However, the resulting emission changes track
  very closely on a percentage and tonnage basis to
  most pollutants and source sectors when compared
  to recent EPA projections
• An exception is seen for PM and CO increases
  largely attributed to fire emissions
• EPA held Rx fire constant, excluded wildfire
• Note Because of estimation of onroad mobile
  emissions using MOBILE6 module in SMOKE for two
  particular episodes, onroad emissions are not
  included in these results and comparisons.

42
Annual Emissions Change With Comparable Reduction
Programs (Base2a vs. IAQR)
20
10
VOC
NOx
SO2
0
CO
PM-10
PM-2.5
NH3
-10
-20
VISTAS
EPA
-30
-40
-50
43
NOx Emission Changes Resulting from 2018 Base
Case 2a in VISTAS States
600,000
Nonroad
AreaFire
500,000
Non-EGU
EGU
400,000
Annual Emissions (Tons)
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Virginia
Mississippi
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
West Virginia
44
SO2 Emission Changes Resulting from 2018 Base
Case 2a in VISTAS States
700,000
Nonroad
AreaFire
600,000
Non-EGU
EGU
500,000
Annual Emissions (Tons)
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Virginia
Mississippi
Tennessee
North Carolina
South Carolina
West Virginia
45
Annual Emissions Change Comparison Between VISTAS
and EPA Projections(VISTAS States Only Units in
Tons/Year)
6,000,000
VISTAS 2002
5,000,000
VISTAS 2018 2b
EPA 2001
EPA 2015 IAQR
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
NOx
SO2
PM-2.5
NH3
46
Conversion to SMOKE Input Format

• Necessary to convert for emissions modeling
• Scripts developed to convert NIF 3.0 to IDA 2.0
• Each episode modeled separately
• When appropriate, temporal specific emission
  files developed
• EGU and fire emissions
• Onroad calculated with MOBILE6 within SMOKE
• All other emissions / inputs allocated using
  temporal profiles in SMOKE system

47
Non-Emission SMOKE Inputs

• Typical EGU Emissions and Temporal Allocation
  Files
• Historical CEM-matched or stakeholder provided
  source emissions converted to hourly input files
• No temporal allocation needed
• Historical CEM-based profiles assigned to EGU
  emissions not matched to actual CEM data
• Typical Fire Emissions and Temporal Allocation
  Files
• Point source based fires converted to daily input
  files
• Plume rise assigned to make 3-D emissions
• Area source based used revised monthly profile
  developed from historical VISTAS state fire
  inventories