What the future holds.

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What the future holds.
A presentation by Gabriel Hemery Woodfuel
Conference at Stoneleigh Park, April 17th 2007
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What the future holds.
A presentation by Gabriel Hemery Woodfuel
Conference at Stoneleigh Park, April 17th 2007
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• Setting the scene
• Energy outlook
• Trade in carbon and wood resources
• Wood for fuel or timber?
• Resolving the Energy-Food-Water trilogy
• Woodfuel and the environment
• Challenges for UK forestry
• Summary

www.forestryhorizons.eu
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• 1. Setting the scene
• Worldwide - develop energy supplies and reduce
  GHG emissions
• EU under exploited forests. EU target for
  renewables to provide 12 by 2010. New target
  agreed of 20 by 2020.
• UK across Europe average biomass energy
  contribution is at least 10, except UK where was
  only 1 in 2003
• Woodfuel strategy for England (FC England)
  target of 2Mt of new material to market.
• Current woodland resource under-managed and
  owner-base disconnected to markets (timber and
  woodfuel).

The transition to a low-emissions global economy
will open new opportunities across a range of
industries and services. Markets for low carbon
energy products are likely to be worth at least
500bn per year by 2050. Individual companies
and countries should position themselves to take
advantage of these opportunities. (Stern 2006)
www.forestryhorizons.eu
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• 2. Energy outlook
• Is the world moving inextricably towards energy
  deficit?
• Conventional wisdom demand driven by emerging
  economies.
• Fossil fuel predicted to remain dominant until
  2030, with renewables minor part.
• Business-as-usual outlook could be
  challengedDemand gtgt Innovation gtgt Security.
• Micro-generation may take off faster and to a
  greater degree than expected. Decentralisation
  has positive carbon benefits. Suits woodfuel.

www.forestryhorizons.eu
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• 3. Trade in carbon and wood resources
• Substantial market changes could occur until 2030
  - dependent on development of energy and carbon
  emission credits.
• Wood resources may be reallocated especially from
  board, paper and pulp industries, to meet demand
  in bio-energy sector.
• End of current Kyoto commitment (2012) is likely
  to impact carbon markets - perhaps a new
  voluntary standard will bring much needed
  credibility?
• A new international climate change agreement post
  2012 may force radical changes to the carbon
  market.
• Implications for the UK very difficult to
  predict international logistics of woodfuel
  supply may not stack up long term. Case for
  domestic (national/regional/local) markets may
  become stronger for both woodfuel and timber.

www.forestryhorizons.eu
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• 4. Wood for fuel or timber?
• Energy production has less GHG benefit than
  material substitution?
• Huge potential for increasing wood use in
  construction.
• Non-stem wood elements are significant (46 ).
• Best species, fit for purpose(s) and climate
  change?
• Future silviculture?

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• 5. The Energy gt Food gt Water trilogy
• Competition for water resources - critical for
  electricity generation.
• Land management to play an increasing role in
  water management.
• Energy crops developed at expense of food crops?
• Agricultures role in global economy
  strengthened.
• Competition for economic land use and
  environmental protection will compete with
  conversion of land to new woodfuel resources.

www.forestryhorizons.eu
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• 6. Woodfuel and the environment
• Lack of management in UK woodlands an important
  issue.
• Increased management must not impact biodiversity
  negatively.
• Energy potential in forestry residues is
  constrained by environmental issues (40
  Lindner et al. 2007).
• EUs 20-2020 emissions target seems out of reach
  without detrimental environmental impact or
  disruption of existing timber markets.

www.forestryhorizons.eu
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• 7. Challenges for UK forestry
• Skills shortage in forestry.
• Lack of public understanding.
• Rebuilding the disjointed woodchain.
• Potential shortage of woody-biomass.
• Growing domestic (national/regional/local)
  markets and systems.
• RD forestry research targeted to meet new
  silvicultural needs.

www.forestryhorizons.eu
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• 8. Summary
• Renewables are likely to grow in importance and
  receive additional political support and attract
  innovation.
• However, true GHG benefits may be in combining
  timber production with woodfuel.
• Micro-generation may grow faster than
  anticipated.
• Woody biomass has good potential for heat
  generation.
• Competition for resources (e.g. land and water)
  may be a barrier.
• Resource currently under-managed and owner-base
  disconnected.
• Woodfuel may bring more woodlands into better
  management (SFM).
• Environmental constraints to realising woodfuel
  resource targets may have been under-estimated.

www.forestryhorizons.eu
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• 8. Summary
• Renewables are likely to grow in importance and
  receive additional political support and attract
  innovation.
• However, true GHG benefits may be in combining
  timber production with woodfuel.
• Micro-generation may grow faster than
  anticipated.
• Woody biomass has good potential for heat
  generation.
• Competition for resources (e.g. land and water)
  may be a barrier.
• Resource currently under-managed and owner-base
  disconnected.
• Woodfuel may bring more woodlands into better
  management (SFM).
• Environmental constraints to realising woodfuel
  resource targets may have been under-estimated.
• Thank you for listening

www.forestryhorizons.eu
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Dr Gabriel Hemery MICFor CEnv Director, Forestry
Horizons g.hemery_at_forestryhorizons.eu www.forestr
yhorizons.eu