Economics of A.I.

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Economics of A.I.

• Robin Hanson
• George Mason University

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A Fog of Future Possibilities

• To Deal With
• Focus on big, robust, sharp changes
• Combine expert knowledge from several fields
• Beware experts in A with newspaper level
  knowledge of B.

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Types of Views
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A.I.-Econ View Combos
Econ
Amateur
Expert
Amateur
A.I.
Expert
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Social Science Exists!!

• Once Express Tech in Econ Terms, Can Say
• Techs social implications
• Given weak regulation
• Given particular strong regulation
• Likely regulations, given political climate
• Likely political climates
• Social support of tech innovations
• Tech innovations given social support

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Econ Terms

• Utility Functions what folks want
• Like outputs, e.g. ,products, services
• Dislike give up inputs, e.g., effort, time
• Production Functions - outputs from inputs
• Endowments base inputs, e.g. abilities
• Info - who knows how much about what
• Deals - trades allowed, contracts enforced

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Economics of Robots

• Staple of fiction ancient legends to TV now
• If have more of X, do you want Y more
  (complement) or less (substitute)?
• Machine as Substitute to human labor
• Predicts wages fall to machine cost
• Ricardo 1821, most science fiction
• Automation as Complement to human labor
• Predicts wages rise as automation costs fall
• Wicksell 1923, modern economics consensus
• So are robots a substitute or complement?

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Robots Substitute On Task, But Tasks Are
Complements
Tasks Are Complements
Humans Do These
Machines Do These
Substitute For Task
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A Rising Tide
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A Rising Tide
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A Simple Robot Growth Model
Assume constant
Seek These
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Switch Between Growth Modes
Exogenous Tech
Endogenous Tech
Pre-Robot
Post-Robot
Learning by doing
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100x Faster Growth Isnt Crazy
Slow
Fast
Mid
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Error 9.6 2.0 1.7
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World Product Growth Rate
Could It Happen Again?
Industry
Farming
Hunting
Brains
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Growth Mode Statistics
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Forecasting The Next Mode
Sample growth rate transition
Date
Rate
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Industry Shares of US GDP
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Factor Shares of Income
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Cheap For Robots

• Immortality (even so, most cant afford)
• Travel transmit to new body
• Nature dont need ecosystems
• Wildly differing bodies
• Widely varying mental abilities e.g., run speed
• Survive in severe environments
• Backups insure against severe events
• Labor work gets less tool intensive

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Copies Become Cheap

• Malthusian population explosion
• Makes rapid economic growth
• Robot wages fall to hardware cost
• And hardware costs fall fast too
• Human wages may fall to robot wages
• Depends on human-robot task landscape shape
• Not matter if robots slave or free
• Only Draconian population or wage laws could stop
  

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Humans Eclipsed

• Wages well below human subsistence
• Though some humans may find servant jobs
• But rich if held non-wage assets
• Investments double as fast as economy!
• Robot-Human war unlikely if integrated
• E.g., lefties dont war against righties

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Human Level Robots Require

• Sensors/Actuators (arms/eyes) now
• Processors
  lt2040
• Software
  ??
• Direct code it?
  Hard!
• Learn from brain organization? Eventually?
• Simulate particular human brain? Can Do!

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Needed To Emulate Brains

• Model each brain cell type
• Scan freeze, slice, 2D scan
• Computer (very parallel task)

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Simulating Dominos

• Wave speed, energy are robust
• Only a few details matter
• Brains seem similar

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Emulations Feel Human

• Most emulations are of few best humans
• First mover advantage to show quality
• Remember human life, retain human tendencies
• love, gossip, argue, sing, violate, play, work,
  innovate
• More alienated worlds - as farms, factories were
• Office work in virtual reality,
• Physical work in android bodies
• Many humans wont believe conscious, is me
• But same social implications, few dozen is plenty

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More Implications

• Copies rent bodies, or own on loan
• Evicted if cant pay!!
• To recoup training investment, copy cabal limit
  copy wage
• Security to prevent bootleg copies
• Fast growth discourages transport, encourages
  local production
• Laws hold copies co-responsible

• lt1cm robots seem feasible
• Mind/body sped up with size reduction
• 0.2in. tall gt Subjective year/day in 24hr/4min
• One skyscraper holds billions - is megacity
• City radius now is hour travel distance gt 10sec

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Time Line
For-Profit Research And Development
Non-Profit Research
Sell, Maintain, Use

• IP rights secure?
• Regulation fears?
• Second mover better?
• Secrets leak fast?
• What products drive?

• Rights of Emulation
• Govt. Slow or Speed?
• What tech ready last?
• Computer gt gradual
• Sim/Model gt sudden

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World Product, 10K BC-2K AD
Singularities!
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World Product, 2 Million BC
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Bigger Brains
Millions of Years
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Modeling Exponential Sequences
Exponential Modes
CES Combined
Method Min
Doubling Time Factor 1st Date Mode Biggest World
Product Factor
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Outline

• Economic capacity drives tech, wartech
• World long-term econ trend mostly steady
• Now doubles in 15 years
• So far have seen 2-4 singularities when
• World econ growth rate increased x150-250
• In much less than a previous doubling time
• Next? by 2100, takes 5 yr, double monthly
• Candidate driver whole brain emulation

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Emulation Supply Demand
Later?
Price
Value
Cost
Net
Quantity
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Kinds of Costs

• Design
• Build
• Maintain
• Repair
• Security

• Material
• Energy
• Capital
• Labor
• Time Delay

• Any brain
• Per brain
• Per copy
• Scale
• Scope

Kinds of Strategy
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Kinds of Quality

• Speed
• Weight
• Portability
• Reliability
• Durability
• Power needs
• Environs handle

• Security
• Nearness to human behavior, feeling
• Improve memory, interface range, bandwidth