Modeling

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Modeling Monitoring / Data Analysis

• Joint Session
• RPO National Workgroup Meeting
• December 3, 2002, 100 - 300
• Crown Plaza, Dallas, TX

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Session Format

• Guided, open discussion
• Focused on, but not limited to list of topics
• How we can/do use each others information
• Session notes will be sent to Discussion Group
  Leads within a week
• 10 minute break at 155, if needed

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Discussion Topics

• Monitor to model comparison
• Species mapping
• Spatial representation
• Temporal issues
• Supplemental measurements
• Unexplained fine mass
• Base year discussion
• Open discussion / QA

4
Model to Monitor Comparison

• Species mapping
• Base inventories are speciated in the emissions
  processing steps and are maintained through the
  photochemical modeling
• Course/primary particles, aerosols, gasses
• Specific species that are not commonly measured
• Speciation is dependent on chemical mechanism
• Examples provided by Kirk Baker follow

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Speciation for ModelsFull CB4 CMAQ, CAMx-M4,
PMCAMx Micro-CB4 REMSADv7
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Model to Monitor Comparison

• Species mapping
• Photochemical model outputs are specific fields
  on an hourly basis.
• How modeled and monitored species are compared
  depends on the specific specie(s) of interest
• Examples provided by Kirk Baker follow

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Model to Monitor Comparison

• Species mapping
• Current questions
• How to standardize species mapping
• Are composite species being compared correctly
• Are there monitoring (modeling) nuances that
  modeling (monitoring) should know
• Are there supplemental observations available for
  comparison with non-standard species
• Can modeling results be used to help make
  decisions on supplemental monitoring or special
  studies

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Model to Monitor Comparison

• Spatial representation
• Photochemical model output provides a value for a
  grid cell of some size
• 36km x 36km 1296 km2
• 12km x 12km 144 km2
• 4km x 4 km 16 km2
• Methods include comparing monitored data to the
  value of the grid cell it is within, averages of
  surrounding grid cells, weighting schemes, etc.

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Model to Monitor Comparison

• Spatial representation
• Current questions
• What spatial extent are monitors representing
• Urban v. rural
• Geographic differences
• Types of monitors
• Differences between species
• Seasonal considerations
• What are the best methods for comparing spatial
  information (modeled) with point measurements

11
Model to Monitor Comparison

• Temporal issues
• Photochemical model output is hourly
• Monitored data varies from continuous to 24-hour
  integrated samples taken every few days
• Diurnal patterns help diagnose model performance
  and model representation of real world physical
  and chemical processes

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Model to Monitor Comparison

• Temporal issues
• Unrealistic to maintain a significant network of
  continuous, speciated monitors at this time
• Modeling could utilize targeted short term
  supplemental measurements of continuous standard
  and non-standard measurements
• Can preliminary model results be used to identify
  areas of interest such as chemical gradients,
  flow corridors, diurnal, seasonal, or specie
  specific areas of interest, for targeted
  supplemental monitoring
• What can be learned from BRAVO, SAMI, OZZIE, etc.

13
Supplemental Measurements

• Are additional field studies being considered
• Is it plausible to plan for short term, targeted
  continuous monitoring projects
• What is available or planned for information
  above the surface level
• Where and when would supplemental measurements
  make the most sense

14
Unexplained Fine Mass

• What is it?
• How to account for in model to monitor comparison
• Seasonality?
• Diurnal pattern?
• Can modeled moisture fields be of help

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Base Year Discussion

• Current thought - 2002
• Most recent EI possible for regulatory modeling
• Allows EI to focus efforts
• More ambient data available (relatively)
• Lacks new monitoring information currently coming
  on line
• Scheduled time frame may be getting shortened
• Any thoughts?

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Open Discussion / QA