Steve Koenig

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(No Transcript)
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Forecasting the Future of CEInsights and
Analysis Using CEAs 2011 Industry Forecast

• Steve Koenig
• Senior Manager, Industry Analysis
• Consumer Electronics Association

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Purpose
How to Forecast Session

• Introduce CEAs industry forecast process
• Illustrate ways to utilize CEA forecasts to
  better understand the industry, markets
• Encourage participation through education

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Session Kick-Off
Agenda

• Introduction and Methodology
• CEA Industry Forecast Design and Implementation
• Forecast Analysis How To
• Analyzing the Industry What are the major
  trends?
• Composition Shifts How are trends impacting CE?
• Category Analysis What categories are leading?
• Segments Driving Growth Where is
  growth/opportunity?
• Wrap-Up / Conclusions
• Your Questions

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Introduction and Methodology
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Why Forecast? Usage Then vs. Now
Then

• Guidepost for production - CEA Members
• Industry Promotion - CEA

Now

• Guidepost for production - CEA Members
• Industry Promotion - CEA
• Business Development - CEA Members
• Market Share - CEA Members
• Strategic Product Planning - CEA Members
• Policy Planning and Development - CEA

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Industry Forecast - Nuts and Bolts
Phased Approach
Evaluate Add / Drop Prepare Forms
Data Collection Interviews Aggregate
Assembly Interpretation Publication
Inputs
Analysis
Planning
Processing
Production
10 Week Timeline

• Forecast Frequency 2x Per Year
• Two Deliverables
• Incentive to Participate

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Methodology Overview
Consensus Driven

• Industry-wide participation
• Manufacturers, Retailers, Dealers, Research
  Firms, Etc.
• Quantitative and qualitative inputs

Leveraging CEA Research

• MARA shipment data provides baseline, historical
  trend
• What is the current growth rate?
• Consumer purchase intentions
• Are consumers actually planning to buy?

CEA Analysis

• CEA analyzes, interprets the results

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Whats Covered in the Forecast?
In-Home Technologies
In-Vehicle Technologies

• Digital and Analog TV
• Video Components
• Home Audio Products
• Home Info Tech
• Home Communications

• Aftermarket Autosound
• Factory Installed Systems
• Mobile Video / Navigation
• Radar Detectors
• Vehicle Security

Anywhere Technologies
CE Enhancements

• CE Accessories
• Blank Media
• Primary Batteries

• Digital Imaging
• Portable Entertainment
• Gaming
• Portable Communication

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2011 Forecast HighlightsJuly Edition

• More than 60 participating companies
• Added 5 year forecast for 30 CE accessory
  segments
• Expanded forecast for Set-Top Boxes
• Developed 5 year forecasts for wireless phones
  and PCs
• Added new segments
• Smartphones, VOIP adapters, IPTV Boxes

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Analyzing the Industry
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CE Industry Growth
More Than 5x Increase Over the Past Two Decades
9 Average Annual Revenue Growth
Source Consumer Electronics Association (CEA)
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The Recent Trend
6.4
8.3
13.6
45 over 5 years
Source CEA Sales and Forecasts, July 2007
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Mega Trends Impacting CE
Trends That Cut Both Ways
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Industry Composition 2007
of Shipment Revenues
Mobile 7
Home Info 40
Other 28
Portable Audio 4
Video 19
Home Audio 2
Includes Gaming, Digital Imaging, Accessories
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Industry Composition 1990s
of Shipment Revenues
Home Info 37
Mobile 12
Portable Audio 4
Other 16
Home Audio 6
Video 25
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Industry Composition 1980s
of Shipment Revenues
Video 43
Home Audio 10
Other 8
Portable Audio 7
Mobile 13
Home Info 20
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Category Analysis
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Evaluating CE Categories
Movers and Shakers
Top Five Contributors
Food for Thought Categories under-indexing
industry growth a sign of weakness?
Source CEA Sales and Forecasts, July 2007
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Looking Closer
Solid Gold or Pyrite?
Top Five Growth Sectors
Reasonable Expectations At its peak DVD player
volumes hit nearly 3.0 billion.
Source CEA Sales and Forecasts, July 2007
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Segments Driving Growth
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Digital Display Shipments
Billions of Revenue
2.7 Growth
LCD Panels Lead the Pack
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Take-Away Despite growth turning negative, LCD
market shows promise
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Annual Revenue GrowthDigital Displays
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
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PC Growth
Billions of Revenue
Mobility Trend
Notebook
Desktop
Notebook Avg. Growth 9
Desktop Avg. Growth 4

• Notebook growth rate double that of Desktops
  through 2011
• By 2011 Notebook revenues 2x Desktops

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Wireless Handset Market Shift
Millions of Units
Smartphones
Standard Handsets
Smartphones
Growth Rates
Standard Handsets
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Digital Camera Revenue Drop
7.1
6.6
6.4
6.0
5.3
4.3
Food for Thought 2007 59 replacement buyers.
Focus on outputs, not capture
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More Megapixels No Sales Gain
Billions of Revenue
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10 Megapixel
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Take-Away Multiplying megapixels fail to boost
sales
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Digital Photo Frames
Millions of Revenue
Food for Thought Frames Product or feature?
42 Average Annual Growth Rate
180
235
307
400
486
591
of Total Digital Imaging Revenues
12
8
6
5
3
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DVD Whats Next?
Billions of Revenue
Standard DVD
Next-Gen DVD
Aggregate Revenues
2.5
2.4
2.1
1.7
2.5
Reasonable Expectations At its peak DVD player
volumes hit nearly 3.0 billion.
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Wrap-Up / Conclusions
Forecast Analysis Primer

• Start at the top
• Break it down
• Examine your category
• Compare growth rates
• Get the long term view

Take the pulse of the Industry
Composition, Movers and Shakers
What are the trends? Impact?
How fast is my market growing?
Where does opportunity exist?
How do my sales compare?
Where is the market headed?
What is the potential?
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Now Its Your Turn
Step One Participate in CEAs next Industry
Forecast!

• Next industry forecast cycle begins in November
• New categories
• Quantitative or qualitative
• Drop me a card!

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Questions?

• Steve Koenig
• Senior Manager, Industry Analysis
• Consumer Electronics Association
• skoenig_at_ce.org
• 703.907.4317

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Extra Slides
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Industry Composition 1980s
of Shipment Revenues
Video 43
Home Audio 10
Other 8
Portable Audio 7
Mobile 13
Home Info 20
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AV Quarterly Trends
YTD Trend
Units 0.8 Dollars 4.4
Source CEA Shipment Data Reports
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A/V Wholesale Price Trends
2
20
15
Source CEA Shipment Data Reports
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Price Gains Slowing
5
17
Based on CEA tracked products
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