Interdependence, Resilience and Sustainability of Infrastructure Systems for Biofuel Development

1
Interdependence, Resilience and Sustainability of
Infrastructure Systems for Biofuel Development
PI Ximing Cai Co-PIs Yanfeng Ouyang, Madhu
Khanna, Gregory McIsaac, Atul Jain, SPs Steven
Eckhoff, Sivapalan Murugesu, Imad Al-Qadi,
Stephen Gasteyer University of Illinois at
Urbana-Champaign Michigan State University
2
Introduction
Goal To develop innovative engineering
guidelines for the expansion and operation of
interdependent infrastructure systems that
sustainably support the emerging
bio-economy. Premises The emerging bio-economy
will increase the interdependencies among
infrastructure systems and interactions among
engineered infrastructures, social communities
and the natural environment, which makes it
critical to address infrastructure resilience and
sustainability within a broad socioeconomic
context.
3
Introduction
Infrastructure interdependence
4
Key Questions to Address
Introduction

• To achieve the biofuel goals, are strategic
  changes in water supply, transportation system
  and feedstock production required?
• How will environmental regulations, climate
  control policies and technology advances affect
  infrastructure needs?
• How will the time horizons used for biofuel and
  engineering planning affect engineering system
  resilience and sustainability?
• To what extent is there a divergence between the
  privately profitable and the socially optimal
  design?
• What mix of knowledge, resources and social
  networks will enable social resiliency
  (decision-making capacity and adaptability) at
  the community, regional, state and national
  level?

5
Introduction

• Adventures!?
• An engineering system bigger than engineering
  and a holistic approach to address
  infrastructural interdependencies and
  environmental and socio-economic impacts
  underlying a socio-technical framework
• A team of engineers, natural scientists and
  social scientists trees or forest?
• Engineering vs. policy OR engineering and
  policy in the context of the biofuel debate?
• Extend operations research from human controlled
  engineering systems (e.g., manufacture systems)
  to large-scale coupled human-nature systems

6
Key Methodology
Framework for assessing infrastructure
sustainability, a three-dimensional framework,
composing economic efficiency, environmental
preservation, and social development
7
Key Methodology
Conceptual development A probability
representation
Perturbation (DS) Probability
Interdependency
Resilience
8
Key Methodology
Modeling framework for integrated system
simulation and decision making.
9
Key Methodology

• Bottleneck infrastructure
• Perturbation propagation

10
Implications for engineering infrastructure
distribution?
Miscanthus yield (tons/ha)
Switchgrass yield (tons/ha)
11
Spatial distribution of Miscanthus yield in
Illinois (supported by data from field trials at
the three locations)
12
(No Transcript)
13
Implications for technology choices? Farmgate
Costs of Production of Cellulosic Feedstocks in
Illinois
14
Implications for the environment?
Life Cycle GHG Emissions
7.54
3.64
2.09
0.92
GHG emission reduction relative to
gasoline Corn 52 Corn stover
88 Miscanthus 89 Switchgrass 71
15
Summary Implications for engineering?

• Critical engineering infrastructures such as
  water supply and transportation, as a system of
  systems, will be required to support the biofuel
  industry
• Infrastructure interdependence will be enhanced
  by the energy food resource environment
  nexus
• Infrastructural resilience and sustainability
  issues are beyond engineering and should be
  addressed within a broad socioeconomic context by
  an interdisciplinary approach
• Great challenges are posed for engineering
  researchers to communicate with researchers in
  other fields