Four Transitions

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Four Transitions

• Hydraulic (hypothesized)
• Primitive?Hierarchical, militarized, local
  political systems
• ca. 5000 BCE
• Imperial
• ? Imperial secular states
• ca. 500 BCE
• Westphalian
• ? Centralized state power, diverse elite
  ideology, nationalism
• 1500-1650
• Industrial
• ? Industrialization, democratic ideology, compact
  states
• 1750-1900

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Features of Early Civilization

• Social stratification
• Peasantry
• Urban Artisans
• Warriors
• Priests
• Nobility
• Literate bureaucracy
• Walled cities
• Long-distance trade, diplomatic relations and
  military operations

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Persian Empire, ca. 500 BCE
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Roman Empire, ca 50 CE
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Tang Empire 750 CE
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Inca Empire 1500 CE
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Imperial vs. Feudal Systems
These form a continuum imperial systems can be
consolidated out of a feudal system (the Chinese
system did this several times) and when an
imperial system weakens, local political/military
leaders take control and it becomes a feudal
system (this was the fate of the numerous
attempts during medieval Europe to re-establish
the Roman Empire).
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Characteristics of imperial systems possibly
relevant to today

• Military power is concentrated in a single state
  capable of operating at long distances but also
  using local alliances
• Ferguson, Barnet
• Multi-national states
• Economy is dependent on stable long-distance trade

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Characteristics of feudal systems possibly
relevant to today

• Persistent militarized non-state actors that can
  effectively challenge state military power in
  marginal areas
• Decentralization of economic power
• Rise of supra-national organizations with
  significant political and military power
• Re-emergence of religion as a major political
  factor
• Rise of non-national identities as the defining
  characteristic for individuals
• Corporations
• NGOs
• Religion
• Social movements, for example environment

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Significant imports to Europe, 1300-1600

• Information technology
• Paper - China
• Moveable type - China
• Compass - China
• Clock - China
• Hindu-Arabic numbers - Middle East
• Modern accounting - Middle East
• Greek philosophy and medicine - Middle East

• Agriculture
• Intensive rice agriculture - China
• Maize (corn) - Mexico
• Potato - Mexico
• Spaghetti - China
• New luxury foods tea, tobacco, chocolate,
  sugar
• Other
• Spinning wheel - China
• Gunpowder - China
• Black Plague - ??
• Gold and silver - Mexico and Peru

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Medieval vs. Westphalian Systems
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Features of Industrial Civilization

• Democracy replaces monarchy as dominant ideology
• Labor force shifts from agriculture to
  manufacturing to service
• Middle class with literacy, organizational skill,
  leisure time and access to information
• Efficient taxation and social welfare systems
• Global trade, diplomatic relations and military
  operations
• Colonialism and unequal economic development

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Hourglass Hypothesis
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20th Century Highlights

• 1890's Expansion of colonial empires
• 1900-10 Development of European alliance systems
• 1914-1917 World War I
• 1929-1939 Great Depression
• ca.1935 Failure of League of Nations rise of
  militarist governments in Germany, Japan
• 1939-1945 World War IItotal war
• 1945 Founding of United NationsNuclear
  weaponsBretton Woods economic system (1944)

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20th Century Highlights, cont.

• late 1940s Beginning of Cold War
• 1950-70 Decolonization
• 1962 Cuban Missile Crisisbeginning of US-USSR
  détente
• 1970s Global economic instability due to OPEC, US
  inflation collapse of Bretton Woods system
• 1989-90 Collapse of communism in Europe

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Cold War Historical Highlights

• 1917 Bolshevik Revolution in Russia
• 1930's Great Depression USSR recognized by
  European states
• 1941 USSR invaded by Germany becomes ally of
  USA, UK
• 1945-49 USSR installs communist regimes in
  Eastern EuropeFormation of NATO (1949)
• 1948 Communist victory in China
• 1950 USSR explodes atomic bomb
• 1950-51 Korean War
• 1952-54 US destabilization of leftist regimes in
  Guatemala, Iran

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Cold War Historical Highlights

• 1953 Death of Stalin
• 1954 French defeated in Vietnam
• 1955 German rearmamentWarsaw Treaty Organization
  founded
• 1956 De-StalinizationUSSR invades Hungary
• 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion (Cuba)
• 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis
• 1965-72 US involvement in VietnamTet Offensive
  (1968)
• 1968 USSR invades Czechoslovakia

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Cold War Historical Highlights

• 1968-78 US-USSR détente period
• 1980-89 USSR involvement in Afghanistan
• 1980-85 "Second Cold War" under Reagan, assorted
  aging Soviet leaders
• 1985 Gorbachev comes to power in USSR, begins
  liberalization
• 1989 Communist regimes in Eastern Europe
  collapse
• 1991 Soviet Union disbands

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Post-Cold War Highlights

• Unipolar military system complete US dominance
  in conventional military technology
• China emerges as major economic power
• Fragmentation of several states USSR,
  Czechoslovakia, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Yugoslavia
• Failed states in Somalia, Liberia, Sierra
  Leone, Zaire, Afghanistan, former Yugoslavia
• Continued European integration
• Continued economic globalization
• Trans-national terrorist movements and other
  militarized non-state actors

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