Steelhead Viability: Where are we now and where are we going

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Steelhead Viability Where are we now and where
are we going?

• Paul McElhany
• NOAA Fisherie
• Northwest Fisheries Science Center

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Talk Outline

• Recent NOAA Status Review
• General Conclusions
• Big Issues
• Next Steps
• TRT Viability Criteria
• Purpose of criteria
• General Structure
• Preliminary Targets
• TRT Population Evaluations

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Biological Review Team

• Reviewed status of all listed species in 2003
• Relied on available data

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Winter Steelhead Populations in LCR
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Summer Steelhead Populations in LCR
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Population Statistics in BRT Review
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(No Transcript)
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Big Issue 1 Hatcheries

• Interim Policy ESUs must be naturally self
  sustaining
• Identified relation of hatchery stocks to ESUs

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Hatchery Stock Categories
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Key Point About Hatcheries-gt
Hatchery fish may be part of ESU ---- but they
do not positively affect the natural
self-sustainability of the ESU
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Big Issue 2 Anadromous-Resident Interactions

• ESU Question three categories
• Sympatric in ESU
• Historically Allopatric out of ESU
• Recently Allopatric (i.e. Above Dams) unknown
• Risk Question
• Big Uncertainty
• Anadromy essential life-history component for
  long-term ESU viability

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Big Issue 3 Recent High Returns

• How do recent high returns affect risk
  evaluation?
• What happens next time marine survivals decline?
• Long-term predictions in marine survival?

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Next Steps in ESA Listing

• Policy consideration of recovery measures
• Public announcement of proposed listing this month

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Technical Recovery Team Tasks

• Identify populations
• Inform recovery goals (viability criteria)
• Identify limiting factors
• Determine impact of potential recovery actions

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Useful Figure?
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ESA Delisting Criteria

• No longer threatened or endangered
• Measurable and objective
• Must relate to listed unit (e.g. ESU)
• Not necessarily the flip side of listing criteria
• Includes biological metrics of fish performance
  AND evaluation of threats
• Part science part policy

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Viable Salmonid Populations (VSP)
Three simple steps!

• Partition ESU into demographically independent
  populations
• Evaluate viability of individual populations
• Abundance
• Productivity
• Spatial structure
• Diversity
• Determine how many and which populations need to
  be in what status

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How many and which populations?

• Catastrophic Risk
• Metapopulation Processes
• Evolutionary Processes

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WLC-TRTViability Criteria Framework
ESU Criteria
Strata Criteria
Population Persistence Probability

• Population Attributes
• Productivity and Abundance
• Diversity
• Habitat
• Spatial Structure

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LCR Steelhead Strata
Life History
Ecological Zone
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Within strata- How many and which populations?

• The recovery unit should have a enough
  populations with sufficiently high viability
  levels that the unit will persist.
• The populations restored/maintained at viable
  status should be selected to
• Allow normative metapopulation processes (include
  core populations).
• Allow normative evolutionary processes (include
  genetic legacy populations)
• Minimize susceptibility to catastrophic events.

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Population Persistence Categories
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Strata rule set

• At least two viable populations (gt level 3)
• Average population persistence score gt2.25

Results in viability criteria proportional to
historical population numbers
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Current Status
1.16
1.06
1.21
1.26
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Example Viable ESU
2.29
2.33
2.25
3.00
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North Santiam Steelhead Attribute Persistence
Probabilities
Abundance and Productivity
Diversity
Habitat
Spatial Structure
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Conclusions

• BRT recognizes many ESUs still at risk
• Viability criteria in development
• Identifying recovery plan actions