CRITICAL SKILLS RELATED TO TROPICAL CYCLONES OPERATIONS AND RESEARCH NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL PERSP

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CRITICAL SKILLS RELATED TO TROPICAL CYCLONES
(OPERATIONS AND RESEARCH) NAVAL POSTGRADUATE
SCHOOL PERSPECTIVES

• Russell L. Elsberry
• Nearly all of the U. S. Navy and U. S. Air Force
  M.S.-level education is at the Naval Postgraduate
  School. Most of the Ph.D.-level education is
  also at NPS. When these officers leave the
  service or retire, they frequently fill civilian
  positions in meteorology.

OFCM Mini-workshop addressing federal community
critical skill shortages related to
meteorology23 September 2009
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BACKGROUND

• Educational skill requirements for the M.S.-level
  curricula in meteorology/oceanography (METOC) for
  the U. S. Navy and in meteorology for the U. S.
  Air Force are established in curriculum reviews
  with senior officers in each service (see PPT 3).
• Program modifications are then made to add,
  delete, or restructure the courses to fit into a
  course matrix (see PPT 4).
• U. S. Navy course adjustments are difficult since
  they impact both meteorology and oceanography
  department courses.
• U. S. Air Force required courses are less
  restrictive, but each officer has an assigned
  specialization to meet needs of his/her next duty
  station.

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Draft Educational Skill Requirements (ESRs) for
6401P-Code

• Understand principles of physical and dyn. prop.
  Of oceans and atm. Also an understanding of
  numerical models and their processes.
• Able to observe, assimilate, analyze, interpret,
  predict ocean and atmos. parameters and
  conditions using field experimentation, direct
  and remote sensing observational techs,
  statistics, and analysis and numerical models.

• Critical thinking skills to solve environ.
  challenging problems in METOC related fields for
  the navy using scientific research tech., tools,
  equip. with an emphasis in one of three areas
• Acoustics
• Physical Oceanography
• Meteorology
• (specific needed skills in each listed)
• Thesis requirement emphasizing operational
  applicability.
• Understanding of GIS and PTA.
• Complete all NPS requirements for the Joint MS in
  Meteorology and Oceanography.

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Proposed Matrix for 373 Program 6401P Code
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CHALLENGES IN EDUCATING METOC OFFICERS

• Navy wants generalist officer able to serve
  in both meteorologist and oceanographer billets,
  so curriculum has many more courses than required
  for M.S. degree
• Navy also wants specialist capabilities to
  serve in positions such as Typhoon Duty Officers
  at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center
• Some officer students do not have mathematical
  and physics background required for curriculum,
  and may be several years removed from college
• Computer skills (if any) limited to games
  versus scientific programming

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• Functionality of METOC officer changes in new
  concept of operations
• Becomes an interpreter, monitor, or quality
  controller of (automated) productsgenerated by
  numerical forecast systems.
• The fundamental change is to a probablistic
  approach to allow the decision-maker to quantify
  risk (exception may be on mesoscale space/time).

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• Educational implications of new concept of
  operations
• Bottom tier implies a fundamental understanding
  of in situ and remote-sensingobservations in
  both atmosphere and ocean.
• Tier-1 forecast implies a fundamental
  understanding of numerical modelforecast
  systems, including data assimilation and ensemble
  prediction systems

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• Educational implications of new concept of
  operations
• Tier-2 implies a fundamental knowledge of the
  performance (capabilities,accuracies,
  limitations) of all forecast system products
  (atmosphere and ocean)
• Tier-3 implies a knowledge of how the accuracy of
  the forecast system productwill be a factor in
  the decisions of all customers

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GENERALIST EDUCATION IN NEW CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS

• Clearly statistics is of high importance
  should differential or partial differential
  equations be a requirement for an interpreter of
  numerical model products?
• An implicit assumption is that the numerical
  model guidance is so accurate (at least in the
  middle latitudes) that human intervention will be
  required only in extreme forecast busts
• Are midlatitude (quasi-geostrophic) dynamics
  courses necessary?
• Are midlatitude synoptic meteorology classes
  necessary?
• Does the METOC officer have to know fundamentals
  of thenumerical model, e.g., finite difference
  schemes, spectralmethods, parameterization of
  physical processes, three- orfour-dimensional
  variational data assimilation?

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GENERALIST EDUCATION AT THE NAVAL POSTGRADUATE
SCHOOL

• Continue to teach thermodynamics, dynamics of
  midlatitudes, and two midlatitude synoptic
  meteorology courses as have always taught, except
  synoptic laboratory exercises are
  computer-generated (click and interpret).
• Numerical model course (required for U. S. Navy
  but optional for U. S. Air Force) is a survey of
  the atmospheric model forecast system, which now
  includes an introduction to ensemble prediction
• Justification Even if the generalist position
  is only to interpret numerical model products,
  the decision maker (Ship Captain, Base Commander,
  Fleet Admiral) will only accept guidance if the
  METOC officer is perceived to have credibility
  based on education, understanding how the
  atmosphere works, and how it affects the mission.

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SPECIALIST EDUCATION AT THE NAVAL POSTGRADUATE
SCHOOL

• Tropical meteorology is taught (three hour
  lecture, four hour laboratory) as a
  sponsor-required course for the U. S. Navy and
  optional for the U. S. Air Force
• Tropical cyclones are about two-thirds of
  lectures and all of the laboratory exercises, and
  the approach is primarily how do tropical
  cyclones differ from extratropical cyclones
  covered in the core synoptic course
• Key tropical cyclone-related topics such as
  remote sensing observation systems, numerical
  models and statistics are covered somewhat in
  other courses

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TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTINGIN THE FUTURE

• Forecasts will be extended to medium-range and
  beyond
• Forecasts will be extended from 5 days to 7
  days
• Intraseasonal (10-30 day) forecasts of tropical
  cyclone eventswill become available
• Seasonal forecasts will be primarily
  dynamically based rather than statistical, and
  more focus will be on regions (rather than
  basins) and on likely number of landfalls
• Intensity, structure, and precipitation
  forecast will (necessarily) be probablistic
  rather than deterministic
• More specific impacts (storm surge, flooding)
  forecasts will be required, but the issue will be
  how to convey risk and uncertainty in the
  warnings

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RESEARCH REQUIREMENTS TO SUPPORT TROPICAL
CYCLONES - I

• Much improved global models, both for
  deterministic and ensemble forecasts, and for
  providing initial and lateral boundary conditions
  for regional tropical cyclone models
• Higher horizontal and vertical resolution
• Improved physics, especially for convection
• Improved data assimilation in the tropics
• Coupling with the ocean, especially for
  intraseasonal
• Much improved regional models for intensity and
  precipitation
• Higher horizontal resolution
• Improved physics, especially for boundary layer
  and convection
• Improved data assimilation on the mesoscale
• Coupling with the ocean
• Multiple skillful regional models for consensus
  forecasting

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RESEARCH REQUIREMENTS TO SUPPORT TROPICAL
CYCLONES - II

• Impact models (deterministic and ensemble)
• Storm surge plus wind wave
• River and bay flooding
• Localized damaging winds
• Societal and economic research on tropical
  cyclones
• Development of effective warning system
  strategies for a diverse society
• Understanding and improving appropriate
  response to warnings
• Improved data assimilation on the mesoscale
• Effective mitigation and preparedness
  strategies

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RESEARCHER SHORTFALLS

• Lack of global model developers (Dr. Simon
  Chang, NRL)
• Universities are not doing this kind of
  research
• Data assimilation on the mesoscale
• Convection and boundary layer in high winds
• Ocean data assimilation and prediction for
  strongly forced conditions