Sin ttulo de diapositiva

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FUTUREFOOD PROJECT HEALTHY AND SAFE FOOD FOR THE
FUTURE - A TECNOLOGY FORESIGHT PROJECT IN
BULGARIA, CROATIA, CZECH REPUBLIC, HUNGARY,
ROMANIA, AND SLOVAKIA
SCENARIO DESIGN
April 26, 2007

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Foresight Method Selection
Reasons which support the election of scenario
design 1) It is an adequate foresight method for
analysing complex and uncertain issues. 2) It is
a qualitative method which does not require
mathematical models. 3) It fosters participation
among industrial agents and it helps to create
networks of experts. 4) It looks for building
consensus. 5) It generates future visions which
facilitate strategy and policy formulation.

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Scenario Design Methodology
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Phase I Problem Conceptualisation

• Objectives
• Environmental analysis of the food industry.
• Understanding of the food industrys cluster.
• Identification of critical issues.

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Phase I Problem Conceptualisation




Food industrys value chain (company level)

• Logistics
• Access to distribution channels
• Market structure of wholesale retail trade

• Quality management
• Food safety health regulations
• Market structure of suppliers (agro-
  business)

• Technology
• Quality assurance
• Productivity

• Technology
• Productivity
• Marketing

• Market intelligence

• Economic determinants (wiiw forecasts)
• Social factors (expert interviews)

Main drivers (examples)

• Access to innovation and technology (e.g.
  development of functional food)
• Access to know how

• Studies on wholesale and retail trade

• wiiw analysis of country studies on the
  agricultural sector (if available)

• Expert interviews

• Expert interviews

Possible inputs

• wiiw forecasts on macro-econ.
  development and food demand
• Alternatively, wiiw analysis of country
  studies on food industry
• Studies on market structure and development

• Expert interviews

• Expert interviews

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Phase I Problem Conceptualisation




Food industrys cluster (industry level)
Knowledge Organisations
Institutional Organisations
Final Demand
Food Value Chain
Basic Suppliers
Farmers
Agribusiness
Distribution Channels
Related Industries and Services
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Phase II Trend Analysis

• Objectives
• Identify and analyse change trends.
• Evaluate change trends according to importance
  level and uncertainty level.

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Phase II Trend Analysis




Geostrategy
Demography
Economy
Technology
Life Styles
Environment
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Phase II Trend Evaluation

• Target Quadrant
• High Importance
• High Uncertainty

High
IMPORTANCE LEVEL
Medium
Low
Low
High
Medium
UNCERTAINTY LEVEL
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Phase III Scenario Design

• Objectives
• Selection of main scenario variables.
• Development of future scenarios.
• Establishment of early indicators.

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Phase III Scenario Design




VERTICAL AXIS


Position
Scenario A
Scenario C






Position -
Position


HORIZONTAL AXIS
HORIZONTAL AXIS




Scenario D
Scenario B







Position -



VERTICAL AXIS
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Phase IV Scenario Implications

• Objectives
• Industry implications for each scenario.
• Gap analysis for each scenario.