Updates of the IA Component in the CIDA CARBON SEQUESTRATION PROJECT Presentation on May 26, 2005, T

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Updates of the IA Component in the CIDA CARBON
SEQUESTRATION PROJECT(Presentation on May 2-6,
2005, Toronto, Canada) Adaptation and Impacts
Research Group, Environment Canada, and
Sustainable Development Research Institute
(SDRI)/UBC Email yongyuan.yin_at_sdri.ubc.ca
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Outline

• Main purpose of the IA component
• IA research framework and methods
• Implementing IA in three cases
• Data collection and the householder surveys
• Impact assessment
• CS land use scenario analysis
• Results and Achievement
• Work plan in the summer of 2005
• Barriers experienced and need to resolve

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Purpose of the IA

• to identify the economic and environmental
  impacts of land use changes
• to ensure that the project will promote linkages
  between carbon sequestration plans and
  sustainable development in China
• to enhance capacity of Chinese scientists and
  stakeholders in developing CS policies and
• to improve Chinese stakeholders awareness of CS
  so that CS plans can be integrated into local
  sustainable development strategies.

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Output from Component I

Output from Component II



Carbon sequestration capacity of

different tree species and CS



Carbon map and forest map

use plans or options






Survey, Data Collection and Impacts Analysis
(economic and

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ecological analysis methods)








Sustainable development indicators
Identification and inventory of

existing
and potential CS plans or
or evaluation criteria (goals)



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3
multiple evaluation criteria



land use options










Desirable land use options





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Developing Partnerships

Multiple stakeholders, planners, analysts, and
public



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-

Domain of the multi
criteria adaptation options evaluation system
(GP or AHP)



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Socio-Economic and Ecological Impact Analysis

• Various methods including economic analysis,
  carbon yield calculation, and statistical models
  are employed to study the economic ecological and
  social impacts of land use changes
• Detailed impact analyses will be presented in
  case studies by Drs. Zhou, Ouyang, Kang and Xu

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Economic Impacts Analysis

• Net economic costs of forestry CS options are
  used as the measurement of economic efficiency.
• main costs of converted lands for carbon
  sequestration are a function of the opportunity
  cost of land, land treatment and conversion
  costs, and the maintenance costs.
• Main benefits are a function of subsidies from
  government, poverty alleviation, forestry
  products, and certificates of emission reductions
  (CERs)
• Cost benefit analysis (CBA) has been applied for
  economic impact analysis. The householder survey
  results are used to calculate costs and benefits
  of each agricultural and forestry activity.
• A general formula to calculate the net present
  value of benefit to cost ratio is given by
• Where NPV is net present value () Bt and Ct
  refer, respectively, to the benefit and cost t
  years from now and r is the discount rate.

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Ecological Impact Analysis

• Forestry Carbon Sequestration Rates or Carbon
  Yields
• Average carbon flow rate
• Yij t is the additional flow of carbon into (Yij
  t gt 0) or out of (Yij t lt 0) the forestry sink at
  township i with land use scenario j in year t.
• Water Balance
• Soil Erosion Rates
• Regression method

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Social Impact Analysis

• Other important social impacts include increasing
  alternative employment opportunities, female
  participation in resource management, and
  improved social sustainability.
• Heihe site The theory of fundamental orientation
  (Bossel, 1999) (CAREERI presentation)
• Liping site The survey and statistic method (Dr.
  Zhous presentation)
• IA and Liping, econometrics and statistics (Dr.
  Wei Xus presentation)

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Two IA approaches linking CS land use policies
and local Sustainability

• Goal Programming (GP) a multi-objective
  mathematical programming model, for integrated CS
  scenarios evaluation
• A multi-criteria decision making technique, the
  Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to identify
  desirable CS land use scenarios
• FAO (2004) also suggested using GP and AHP for
  analysis of CS land use scenarios

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ILAF Integrated Land Assessment Framework
Subject to
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Example of AHP in Selecting Desirable Land Uses
Goal
Sustainability
Environmental
Economic
Social
Land Use Options
Land Use Options
Land Use Options
1. Increase Ecol Forests
1. Increase Ecol Forests
1. Increase Ecol Forests
2. Increase Timber Trees
2. Increase Timber Trees
2. Increase Timber Trees
3. Agro-Forestation
3. Agro-Forestation
3. Agro-Forestation
Step 1 Pair-wise comparison of Sustainability
Indicators. Step 2 Pair-wise comparison of Land
Use Options with respect to each of the
Sustainability Indicators.
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Methodologies
IA Local sustainability indicators
Gender equality
Soil erosion
Ecological stability
Econ return
Minority People engagement
CO2
Water use efficiency
National, provincial and municipal governments,
forestry practitioners, farmers and researchers
(females and minority people are involved)
Stakeholders
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• Forestry CS land use scenarios used for IA study
• The original Chinas Grain to Green (GTG) plan
  (tree species combinations based on existing
  government AR plans)
• Adjusted GTG plan due to government new concern
  of grain production (only convert barren lands to
  forest land), and if the government subsidy will
  be stopped or the GTG program is over
• Land use scenarios based on the National Natural
  Forest Protection Program (NFP)
• Scenarios based on forest land use suitability
  (site index, soil type, climate, tree species
  (expert suggested tree species to maximize CS -
  Component 2)
• Changing forest rotation length or management
  practices.

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• Forestry practices to increase carbon
  sequestration (Richards and Stokes 2004)
• 1. Afforestation of agricultural land
• 2. Reforestation of harvested or burned
  timberland
• 3. Modification of forestry management practices
  to emphasize carbon storage
• 4. Adoption of low impact harvesting methods to
  decrease carbon release
• 5. Lengthening forest rotation cycles
• 6. Preservation of forestland from conversion
• 7. Adoption of agroforestry practices
• 8. Establishment of short-rotation woody biomass
  plantations
• 9. Urban forestry practices

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Data collection and household survey

• Field trips, literature review and householder
  surveys have been conducted to collect
  fundamental data
• Meetings with Chinese government officials
• Householder surveys conducted in three sites
• Land units county and township

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Data Collected for IA Study
Table 1. Data required for the integrated
assessment model
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The costs and benefits of crops in Liping County
Note 1. SN, sample number FT, fertilizer cost,
unite yuan/ha PT, pesticide cost, unite
yuan/ha AM, animals machines cost, unite
yuan/ha IG, irrigation cost, unite yuan/ha SP,
sweet potato 2. Price unite yuan/kg yield
unite kg/ha. Labor unite days/ha Seeds cost
unite yuan/ha Area unite ha
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The costs and benefits of trees in Liping County
Note 1. Seedlings cost unite yuan/ha protect
cost uint yuan/ha Benefits unite yuan/ha 2.
PM, Pinus massoniana TH, tulip tree hackberry
FW, fuel wood WP, wild pepper TT, tea oil tree
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The CS yields of trees in Liping County
Note 1. PM, Pinus massoniana TH, tuliptree
hackberry FW, fuelwood FT, Fruit tree CW,
chestnut walnut TT WN, teaoil tree whizzed
naphthalene TTT, turpentine tung tree WPTEG
, wild pepper tuber of elevated gastrodia
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The impacts on social sustainability of land use
conversion in Heihe site (Zhangyi)
Scores 0-1 is unacceptable 1-2 is dangerous
2-3 is good and 3- 4 is excellent
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In families that women make a meaningful
contribution, change in social economic status of
women is more obvious after land use conversion

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IA Capacity Building and Stakeholder Engagement
Partnership, Stakeholder Meetings, Training
Workshop and Surveys

• The IA engaged females in research and survey
  processes and empowered minority people in land
  use decision making
• Increased capacity among Chinese stakeholders
  (institutions and governments, especially policy
  makers) to use carbon source and sink maps
  (country-wide and local level) for guiding the
  implementation of future Clean Development
  Mechanism (CDM) projects (Outcome 3)
• Increased awareness in local and national
  governments of the link between local and
  regional sustainability planning, and
  carbon-sensitive land use decisions (Outcome 3)

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IA Capacity Building and Stakeholder Engagement
(cont.)

• 2002 Lanzhou Workshop and Training Course forty
  five participants (eleven women). Regional
  stakeholders and researchers got train on CS
  issues and local scientists skill on integrated
  assessment methods improved
• 2002 partnership with Liping Forestry Bureau,
  the Office of GTG Program, Agriculture Bureau,
  Statistics Bureau, Water Resources Bureau,
  Planning Bureau, Forestry Bureau, and Minority
  Affairs Bureau. Surveys and interviews with
  Deputy Mayor and township leaders and officials
  responsible for women issues, poverty
  eradication, minority communities, and forest
  protection program, as well as peasants in
  several townships.

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IA Capacity Building and Stakeholder Engagement
(cont.)

• 2003 Yin assisted by Chinese professors,
  graduate students and local officials conducted
  householder surveys in the three IA sites.
• Graduate students trained Heihe site-4 PhD and 1
  MSc students Changbaishan site-2 PhD students
  and Liping-2 professors and 1 MSc
• Chinese partners and local stakeholders engaged
  (many females)
• A large number of householders participated in
  the surveys and completed questionnaire
  Heihe-40 Liping- 171 householders (583 people,
  71 minority people, 46 female)
  Changbaishan-150 householders

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IA Capacity Building and Stakeholder Engagement
(cont.)

• 2004 Liping survey 3 professors and 5 MSc
  students assisted by ten staff from the
  reforestation office, 19 townships, 300 families
  and 60 officers and forest technicians surveyed
• 2004 Heihe survey 2 professors and 9 graduate
  students surveyed 7 municipals, 300 families
  surveyed
• Established partnership with State Forestry
  Administration of China

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IA Relevant to UNFCCC/CDM AR

• UNFCCC/CDM mandate a potential CDM project will
  be required to provide the host developing
  country with new investment and technology to
  enhance local sustainability.
• The proposed CDM AR Project Design Document (PDD)
  requires to provide impact information and
  stakeholders comments
• D. Estimation the net anthropogenic GHG removals
  by sinks
• E. Environmental impacts of the proposed A/R CDM
  project activity
• F. Social impacts of the proposed A/R CDM project
  activity
• G. Stakeholders comments

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Work Done or On Going

• Data collection and householder surveys
• Socio-economic and ecological impact analyses of
  one main category of land use scenarios (GTG) in
  current time
• Local sustainability indicators identified
• CS land use scenarios determined
• Multi-stakeholder partners established
• Capacity building and female participation

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Work to be Done in Summer 2005

• Impacts assessments alternative land use
  scenarios and at township scale
• Land use scenarios evaluation using the AHP
  method
• Stakeholder meetings and interviews for the AHP
  exercise
• Calculation results from the AHP exercise
• Policy workshop to present findings of the policy
  evaluation to stakeholders
• farmers preference
• Complete the IA final report and publish journal
  papers

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Some Barriers Experienced in IA Research

• 1. The budget to support IA activities is small.
  Policy evaluation in summer 2005 is pending to
  CIDA additional fund, which created problems for
  planning IA activities.
• 2. Time lag of IA research procedure (rely on
  data provided by Components 12)
• 3. Communications among IA partners and among
  three components of the project have been
  difficult. Data transfer from Components 12 has
  been slow and some promised data transfer is long
  over due. Data share becomes very difficult, if
  not impossible.
• 4. Components 12 do not cover Heihe site, which
  causes problem for IA work. 
• 5.  SARS
• 6.  Researchers are too busy on too many research
  projects. Their participation in the IA component
  was not adequate.

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Acknowledgements

• The IA research is funded by CIDA CCCDF, and the
  participation of this conference has been made
  possible through the financial support of the
  CIDA CS project and the Adaptation and Impacts
  Research Group, Environment Canada.