On concurrence of Decision Making Processes

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On concurrence of Decision Making Processes

• Prof. Dr. Habil. Andrzej Janicki
• andrzej.janicki44_at_neostrada.pl
• Faculty of Mathematic and Natural Sciences
• John Paul II Catholic University of Lublin,
  Poland
• The Military Institute of Aviation Medicine in
  Warsaw, Poland
• VIPSI Conference - Belgrad
• April 2009

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• We can assume that a humans decision phenomenon
  is a creation of life needs and a decision-making
  process taking place in emotional or rational
  spheres of each individual. On the solid ground
  of conducted researches dedicated to
  decision-making processes in each of these
  mentioned spheres there is both an advanced
  scientific and practical well-known output
  regarding particular theories and activity
  procedures in different applications.
  Consequently, we are able to distinguish the
  category of behavioral decision-making theory
  and the category of mathematical decision-making
  theory.
• From the area of consideration, there are taken
  two complex situations with a high level of
  uncertainly. Firstly, the situation in which a
  human who takes an individual and direct decision
  has, to a large degree, acts instinctively.
  Secondly, there is the situation in which a human
  takes a problem-solving decision with a support
  of the initial decision, prepared by an expert
  panel or by an expert computing system.

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PENETRATING OF PHIELDS OF SIENCE, TECHNICK AND
HUMAN ACTIVITY
MODEL
PSYCHOLOGY, SOCJOLOGY
POLITICAL SIENCE
SOCIAL ECONOMIC ISSUES
TELEMATICS
PROCEDURES, AGENTS, PROJECTS, ORGANISATIONS-
MANAGEMENT
MODEL OF AUTOMATION
IST
MODEL OF TELECOMMU-NICATION
MODEL OF INFORMATICS
OBJECTS, PROCESSES, NETWORKS, CHAINS - CONTROL
AUTOMATION - ROBOTICS
PEOPLE - ECONOMY
ECONOMY
MATHEMATICS
NATURAL SIENCES e-ECONOMY
IST - INFORMATION SOSIETY TECHNOLOGIES
REALITY
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• SOURCES OF KNOWLEDGE - INTERDISCIPLINARY
  APPROACH
• Philosophy of action - focuses on the essential
  nature of action (action is an event carried out
  by the agent)
• Action in linguistic - is a four 1) activity
  (e.g run,eat), state (e.g know, be sick, seat),
  accomplishment (e.g drawn, eat an apple, climbe
  a mountain), achievement (e.g realise, reach the
  summit).
• The main parameters involved in distinguished
  these classes, form the point of view of their
  relations with time, are as follows having (or
  being) a culmination point, being downward
  homogeneous, being cumulative and being punctual
  or atomic.
• Action in artificial intelligence - is based on
  the theoretical foundation of the role of
  believes, desires and intentions in the so called
  practical reasoning (it means a reasoning that
  leads to an action).
• Planning process - planning is an abstract
  explicit deliberation process that chooses and
  organises actions by unticipating their expected
  outcomes. It basicly treats the action as 'black
  boxes' with pre-conditions and post-conditions.
  We usually assume that each action has its
  preconditions and the expected outcomes, which
  gives an account for its application in planning.

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• An ONTOLOGY is an explicit specification of a
  conceptualisation
• An ONTOLOGY is an explicit, partial account of an
  conceptualisation.
• The term 'CONCEPTUALIZATION' used in 01
  definition means a structure (D,R), where D is a
  domain and R is a set of relations.
• The term 'CONCEPTUALIZATION' used in 01
  definition means the representation by an
  intentional structure of the form (W,D,R), where
  W is a set of possible worlds, D is a domain and
  R is a set of intentional raqlations on D. An
  intentional relation of arity n on D is a
  function from W into 2
• Intuitively conceptualization requires that each
  of its relations is always relative to a possible
  world. Possible worlds could in principle be
  anything, but a frequent use is to consider they
  are a single 'world' at different times.
  Intentional structure has this advantage, that it
  allows the specification of the meaning of a
  relations independly of the (actual) state of
  affairs.

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• WHAT IS AN ACTION?
• Action is an event, namely, the event that is
  curried out by the agent but more specificly
  action is an event done by an agent for a reason
  for instance (e.g) Action is an event done by an
  agent with the intention to do this action.
• Paralelly to that action is an event which is
  under the control of the agent shortly action is
  a transition between the states or situtions.
• AGENT - AN ESSENTIAL COMPONENT OF ACTION
• In philosophy, an agent, in most cases, is
  synonymous to a human being (person), self or a
  subject.
• The agent
• In conscious has a capacity for self-reference
• Is free
• Is rational
• Persists throw time
• Operates with reasons (such as believes, sesires,
  intentions, obligations etc.)
• and (operating with reasons) is capable of
  deciding, initiating and carrying out actions.
• is responsible for at least some of its behavior
• is constituted by a body

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ARTEFACTS
STRESS

• INFORMATION APRIORI
• EXPERTS EVALUATIONS
• SURVIES RESULTS
• COMPARABLE RESULTS

• KNOWLEDGE MODEL
• MONITORING
• COMPARING
• EVALUATING
• RAPORTING

KNOWLEDGE DATABASE
Information coordination
Computational Intelligence Platform
EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT
Knowledge integration
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EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT
MIND WISDOM
EXPECTATION STIMULATED BY INTUITION
MIND
INTUITION FORCASTING
HUMAN ACTING BASED ON KNOWLEDGE EDUCATION
MIND
KNOWLEDGE ACTING
NATURE
MULTIPLE TRIAL METHOD FAILURE METHOD
EXPERIENCE LEARNING
REAL AGENTS AGENTIES
INTERACTIONS BETWEEN EACH OTHER
CONCLUDING
DECISIONS
CONCLUSIONS
EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT
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• We assume the humans behaviour as particular
  life process, which, - from the formal point of
  view - could be described by a process Z (Z,t),
  where Z means so called behavioral variable
  having fuzzy charakter (uncertain) and t means
  the time.
• There is a set D of activities d taken by
  particular human (or by a cyborg) d ? D and
  d f(z) where z is a particular basic activity
  from described interval of behaviors definites
  with Ze as a four dimensions one.
• As it is well known from the practice the
  knowledge without activity is empty and activity
  without the knowledge is blind. Following this
  assumpion the configuration of the knowledge and
  the activity is a strenght of changes and
  development in frames of the process Z (Z, t).
• It is easy to see that a variable Z takes the
  values from particular domain of basic
  behaviours implemented in the common interval
  Ze what is a subject of a graphic
  visualisation on the next slide.

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INTUITION - EXPECTATIONS
EXPERIENCE - LEARNING
Z (Z t)
MIND - WISDOM
t
tk
Ze
DEDUCTION
tp
PROBLEM AREA
KNOWLEDGE - ACTION
MODEL OF THE PROBLEM AREA TOGETHER WITH ITS
ENVIRONMENT
MIND
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• Processes models taking place in both these
  situations have the game theory character with a
  strong time conditioning and fuzzy data as well
  as values. The conclusions of the first situation
  are based on the Differentiation and
  Consolidation Theory formed in 1992 by Ola
  Svenson from the University of Stockholm. In the
  second situations consideration there is an
  implication of the Bellman-Zadehs approach
  (1970) concentrated on multistage decision-making
  and steering process in a fuzzy environment
  (chaos), which has been also further developed by
  E.Kulikowski (2003) - who created a concept of
  utility function, as well as the Authors
  publications and researches results.
• The conclusion is that there is a fundamental
  usefulness of the Differentiation and
  Consolidation Theory in the area of
  decision-making processes, what takes place in
  the first described situation. There appeared
  also a presumption about a possibility of this
  theory generalization with use of mathematical
  systems theorys elements, to which belongs
  decision-making mathematical theory mentioned
  before. It will be the subject of Authors
  researches and publications in the nearest
  future.

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• THANK YOU
• FOR YOUR
• ATTENTION