Time and Requisite Variety: Lessons from Project Management

1
Time and Requisite VarietyLessons from Project
Management

• Frank T. Anbari and Stuart A. Umpleby
• The George Washington University
• Washington, DC

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The law of requisite variety

• First described by W. Ross Ashby in 1952
• Similar to game theory have a move to counter
  every possible move by an opponent
• Time is a separate dimension not included when
  calculating variety

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First version

• The amount of selection that can be performed is
  limited by the amount of information available
• Example Admitting students to college
• What if there are five students and information
  on only three?
• When all available information has been
  exhausted, do whatever you like.

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Second version

• The variety in the regulator must be at least as
  great as the variety in the system being
  regulated
• Example Buy a computer with a capacity not less
  than the required task
• Example In sports have a defense for every
  offense and seek to create novel offenses

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Implication for management

• When confronted with a task more complicated than
  one can cope with, there are two and only two
  choices
• One Increase the variety in the regulator (for
  example by hiring more staff)
• Two Reduce the variety in the system being
  regulated

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Implementing the second strategy

• The second strategy is surprisingly powerful
• Reducing the variety in the system being
  regulated is possible because a system is a set
  of variables defined by the observer
• That is, one can redefine the system so that it
  is manageable

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Projects and Programs

• A project is a temporary endeavor undertaken to
  create a unique product, service, or resultMost
  projects are undertaken to create a lasting
  outcome.
• A program is a group of related projects managed
  in a coordinated way to obtain benefits and
  control not available from managing them
  individually.
• Project Management Institute (2004)

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Rich, Long History ofProject Management (PM)

• The Wheel
• The Pyramids
• The Great Walls of China
• Roads, viaducts, Canals, and architecture
• Defense systems
• Computers and telecommunications
• Medical and pharmaceutical projects
• Space exploration and utilization

Sources Cleland, David I. The Societal
Contribution of Project Management, IPMA 17th
World Congress on Project Management, Moscow,
Russia June 4-6, 2003, and Anbari, F.T.
Romanova, M.V. Developing Competitive
Organizations trough Six Sigma, Innovation, and
Project Management, EURO / INFORMS Joint
International Meeting, Istanbul, Turkey, July
6-10, 2003.
Continued
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Projects and Project Management

• A project can be defined as a system that
  transforms inputs into outputs and has a feedback
  mechanism
• ? The system to be regulated
• The PM system (including the project manager and
  team) can be defined as
• ? The regulator

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A Systems Approach to Project Management
INPUT PROCESS OUTPUT
Integration Scope Time Cost Quality Human
Resources Communications Procurement Risk
Physical Human Conceptual
Physical Conceptual
Scope Time Cost Quality
FEEDBACK
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Projects as Systems

• Projects are Complex systems
• May have a single or often multiple objectives
• The objectives may have different priorities
• Highly constrained usually with multiple
  constraints
• Some objectives may also act as constraints
• Systems dynamics and interventions by key
  stakeholders increase complexity of the project
  management system

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Project objectives and constraints

• Time and cost have traditionally been considered
  as the main constraints on projects
• The triple constraint theory adds a third
  constraint (often called performance)
• Scope, time, cost, and quality have been proposed
  as the quadruple objectives and constraints
• Risk tolerance and resource availability may be
  added as constraints only

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Quadruple Objectives / Constraints of Project
Management
Scope
Quality
Time
With proper prioritization of project
objectives F. T. Anbari, 1985, 2005
Cost
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Prioritization of objectives Example
Time
Cost
Scope
Quality
Priority
First
Second
Third
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Time and requisite variety

• Previously in discussions of requisite variety,
  time was not considered because it was thought to
  be a different kind of variable
• In the game theoretical formulation, requisite
  variety lists capabilities, which are executed in
  time
• However, time is itself a capability or is a way
  to increase capability
• This is a notion that was excluded in the
  original, formal, game theoretical interpretation
  of requisite variety

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Time in project management

• In managing projects, time is usually considered
  to be a critical (trade-off) variable
• Taking more time often allows projects to be
  completed to satisfy other project objectives
• The time constraint often affects the achievement
  of other project objectives
• The common practice of "extending time" in
  project management calls attention to the formal
  interpretation of time in the cybernetics
  literature
• A broader interpretation of time can bring
  cybernetics closer to other fields

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The Correspondence Principle

• Proposed by Niels Bohr when developing quantum
  theory
• Any new theory should reduce to the old theory to
  which it corresponds for those cases in which the
  old theory is known to hold
• A new dimension is required

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  New Law of
requisite variety                
An Application of the Correspondence
Principle  
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The law of requisite variety and project
management

• The law of requisite variety can make important
  contributions to PM, since the PM system (or
  process) approach is becoming very widely
  accepted in PM
• PM can make an interesting contribution to
  cybernetics and the law of requisite variety by
  appropriately addressing the time variable

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Cybernetics and behavioral science

• An advantage of cybernetics is that it sometimes
  lends itself to mathematical analysis, similar to
  game theory
• Most of behavioral science is not expressed as
  axiomatic theories
• Behavior occurs in time
• Including time with requisite variety may lead to
  analyses closer to behavioral science

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References

• Anbari, F. T. (1985). A Systems Approach to
  Project Evaluation, Project Management Journal,
  Vol. XVI, No. 3, pp. 21 26.
• Anbari, F. T. (2005). Innovation, Project
  Management, and Six Sigma Method. Current Topics
  in Management, Vol. 10, pp. 101-116, New
  Brunswick, NJ Transaction Publishers
• Ashby, W. R. (1952). Design for a Brain The
  Origin of Adaptive Behavior. London Chapman
  and Hall.
• Ashby, W. R. (1957). An Introduction to
  Cybernetics. London Chapman and Hall.
• Checkland, P. (2000). Soft Systems Methodology A
  Thirty Year Retrospective. Systems Research and
  Behavioral Science, Vol. 17, Iss. S1, pp. S11
  S58.
• Schwaninger, M. (2004). What can cybernetics
  contribute to the conscious evolution of
  organizations and society? Systems Research and
  Behavioral Science, Vol. 21, Iss. 5, pp. 515
  527.
• Project Management Institute. (2004). A guide to
  the project management body of knowledge, (3rd
  ed.). Newtown Square, PA Author.
• Umpleby, S.A. (2004). Strategies for Regulating
  the Global Economy. Cybernetics and Systems.
  Retrieved on October 22, 2005 from
  http//www.gwu.edu/umpleby/recent_papers/st_regul
  ating.htm
• Umpleby, S. A. (2002). Should Knowledge of
  Management Be Organized as Theories or as
  Methods? The George Washington University.
  Retrieved on July 28, 2005 from
  http//www.gwu.edu/umpleby/recent_papers/2002_kno
  wledge_of_management_organized_as_theories_or_as_m
  ethods.htm