China Energy 2050 2050

1
China Energy2050???? 2050
Preliminary Results November 2008 Do Not Cite
2
A View of Chinas Energy Future????????
This material on Chinas energy future is very
preliminary and should not be cited or
distributed. ????????????????????????,??????????
? These estimates will be modified and changed,
possibly significantly, as in-depth analysis
progresses over the coming 9 to 12 months.
????????????,??????9?12?????????????????? Noneth
eless, the story is indicative of serious energy
issues likely to face China over the coming
decades. ???????????????????????????? To follow
the progress (quarterly), e-mail
HYLu_at_lbl.gov. ??????????????(???),?????????HYLu_at_lb
l.gov
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Energy Demand????
4
Energy Demand Business as Usual ???????????
Million Metric Ton Coal Equivalent ??????
Agriculture ??
BAU ???????
Transportation ??
Buildings ??
Industry ??
Source Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050
China Energy Study, preliminary estimates do not
cite or quote
???????????????, 2050?????????. ????,?????
5
BAU Industry and Buildings Assumptions
Optimistic Case???????????? (???????)
Average Annual Growth ??????
2000-05 2005-10 2010-20 2020-30
2030-50 Industry 11.1 4.6 3.3 2.0
2.0 ?? Industry shifts to low energy
intensity products and
pursues energy efficiency ???????????????

• Buildings 8.5 5.4 4.0 1.4 0.6
• ?? New buildings use 30 less energy by
  2030 and 50 less by 2050
• ?2030???????30,?2050???50
• Annual construction declines by 15 in 2020 by
  35 in 2050
• ?2020???????15?2050???35

Source Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050
China Energy Study, preliminary estimates do not
cite or quote ???????????????, 2050?????????.
????,?????
6
Energy Supply????
7
Energy Deficit ????
Million Metric Ton Coal Equivalent ??????
BAU energy demand ????(???????)
DEFICIT ??
Coal 2030 peak 2030?????????
COAL?
Wind????
Hydro????
Oil ??
Demand ??
Imports??
Solar, geothermal ???,??
Nuclear??
Natural Gas???
Coal ?
Source Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050
China Energy Study, preliminary estimates do not
cite or quote
???????????????, 2050????????? ????,?????
8
Peak Coal ??????
Million Metric Ton Coal Equivalent ??????
Scenario 1 peak 2036 ??1-2036????? Scenario 2
peak 2029 ??2-2029????? Scenario 3 peak 2027
??3-2027?????
Source Zaipu Tao, Mingyu Li, What is the Limit
of Chinese coal supplies- a STELLA model of
Hubbert Peak, Energy Policy 35 (2007).
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China
Energy Study. ???? Zaipu Tao, Mingyu Li, What
is the Limit of Chinese coal supplies- a STELLA
model of Hubbert Peak, Energy Policy 35 (2007).
???????????, 2050??????????????,?????
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Oil BAU ??(???????)
Million Metric Ton Coal Equivalent ??????
BAU energy demand ????(???????)
Domestic oil peaks Between 2015 and
2020 2015-2020???????????
Coal 2030 peak 2030?????????
Oil
Demand
Coal
Source Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050
China Energy Study, preliminary estimates do not
cite or quote ???????????????,
2050??????????????,?????
10
Natural Gas BAU ???(???????)
Million Metric Ton Coal Equivalent ??????
BAU energy demand ????(???????)
Natural gas peaks in 2025 2025????????
Coal 2030 peak 2030?????????
Oil ??
Demand ??
Natural Gas ???
Coal ?
Source Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050
China Energy Study, preliminary estimates do not
cite or quote
???????????????, 2050?????????. ????,?????
11
Hydro Optimistic Case ???????
Million Metric Ton Coal Equivalent ??????
By 2025 80 of hydro potential All major rivers
dammed Assumes glaciers in Himalayas do not
melt ?2025?, 80????? ????????????? ????????????
BAU energy demand ????(???????)
Coal 2030 peak 2030?????????
Hydro ????
Oil ??
Demand ??
Natural Gas ???
Coal ?
Source Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050
China Energy Study, preliminary estimates do not
cite or quote
???????????????, 2050?????????. ????,?????
12
Nuclear Optimistic Case ???????
Million Metric Ton Coal Equivalent ??????
BAU energy demand ????(???????)
Build 1-GW plants 9 growth/year 5 in
2030 100 in 2040 200 in 2050 ??1???? ???9 2030?5
?, 2040?100? 2050?200?
Coal 2030 peak 2030?????????
Hydro ??
Oil ??
Demand??
Nuclear ??
Natural Gas ???
Coal ??
Source Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050
China Energy Study, preliminary estimates do not
cite or quote
???????-????????, 2050 ?????????. ????, ?????
13
Wind Optimistic Case ???????
Million Metric Ton Coal Equivalent ??????
BAU energy demand ????(???????)
By 2050 80 of on-shore capacity 33 of total
capacity (including off-shore) ?2050?,80???? 33?
??(??????)
Coal 2030 peak 2030???????
Wind ??
Hydro ??
Oil ??
Demand ??
Nuclear ??
Natural Gas ???
Coal ??
Source Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050
China Energy Study, preliminary estimates do not
cite or quote
???????????????, 2050?????????. ????,?????
14
Solar Advanced Biomass ?????????
Million Metric Ton Coal Equivalent ??????
BAU energy demand ????(????????)
2050 Solar cells biomass contribute more than
domestic oil 2050???????????????? ???????
Coal 2030 peak 2030???????
Wind ??
Hydro????
Oil??
Demand??
Solar, geothermal ???,???
Nuclear??
Natural Gas???
Coal?
Source Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050
China Energy Study, preliminary estimates do not
cite or quote
???????????????, 2050?????????. ????,?????
15
Imports Optimistic Case ??????
Million Metric Ton Coal Equivalent ??????
BAU energy demand ????(???????)
2050. Oil, natural gas exceed domestic
production Substantial net coal
imports 2050?,?????????? ????,?????
Coal 2030 peak 2030???????
Wind ??
Hydro ??
Oil ??
Demand ??
Imports ??
Solar, geothermal ??????
Nuclear ??
Natural Gas ???
Coal ??
Source Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050
China Energy Study, preliminary estimates do not
cite or quote
???????????????, 2050?????????. ????,?????
16
Peak Energy, 2035? 2035??????????
Million Metric Ton Coal Equivalent ??????
BAU energy demand ????(????????)
DEFICIT ??
2035 peak energy? 2035?????????
Coal 2030 peak 2030?????????
COAL
Wind ??
Hydro ????
Oil ??
Demand ??
Imports ??
Solar, geothermal ???,??
Nuclear ??
Natural Gas ???
Coal ?
Source Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050
China Energy Study, preliminary estimates do not
cite or quote
???????-????????, 2050?????????. ????,?????
17
Very Low Energy Demand Case????????Preliminary
Results Expected in December, 2008