Eastern Region Activities

1
Eastern Region Activities

• Fred McMullen
• Sub-Regional Aviation Workshop
• WFO Columbia, SC
• 26 February 2009

2
Measuring Weather / Traffic Impact
The Weather Index expresses severity of weather
impact on the NAS, weighted by air transportation
service demands
En-route Convective Weather
Local Airport Weather
Capacity, Safety constraints
Traffic Demand
ATM, Airline Response Strategies
Operational Outcomes
National Airspace System (NAS)
3
Weather Impacted Traffic Index (WITI)Quantifies
the hand the NAS was dealt today

• WITI is a weighted sum of three components

• En-route Component reflecting impact of
  convective weather on routes to/from major
  airports
• Terminal Component for major airports local
  weather impact
• Queuing Delay Component for same airports
  reflecting excess traffic demand vs. capacity

Weather is weighted by traffic

• Used by the FAA on a regular basis
• Measure system performance in an objective
  manner
• Compare different seasons Wx/traffic impact
  with outcomes (e.g. delays)

4
WITI-FA (Forecast Accuracy)

• En-route weather
• E-WITI uses actual convective Wx data (NCWD)
• E-WITI-FA uses convective forecast data, (CCFP)
• Both use the same scheduled traffic on major
  flows
• Convective forecast data is converted to
  quasi-NCWD format (probability or intensity of
  Wx converted to max NCWD score for hexagonal
  grid cells)
• Terminal weather
• T-WITI uses actual surface Wx data (METARs)
• T-WITI-FA uses forecast data (TAFs)
• Both use the same scheduled traffic at major
  airports
• TAF converted to quasi-METAR form, rolling
  look-ahead stream

5
Delta Weather vs. Delta Weather Impact
(Delta WITI)
CCFP converted to Quasi-NCWD
NCWD
Delta Wx
Wx itself was overforecast
6
Delta Weather vs. Delta Weather Impact
(Delta WITI)
Large areas covered by this CCFP see very little
traffic
7
Delta Weather vs. Delta Weather Impact
(Delta WITI)
WITI-FA (CCFP converted to Quasi-NCWD)
E-WITI (NCWD)
Delta WITI
Wx impact on traffic was underforecast
8
Terminal WITI Based on Forecast Wx T-WITI-FA

• Apply the methodology developed for en-route
  convective weather (E-WITI-FA) to terminal
  weather
• First, compute T-WITI using METARs
• Then, compute T-WITI-FA using TAFs for same
  airports

FTUS43 KLOT 302300 KORD 010423Z 010424 05012KT
P6SM BKN250 FM0900 12007KT P6SM BKN250
FM1400 24012KT P6SM VCTS BKN035CB FM1800
30012G18KT P6SM BKN040 FM2200 01012KT P6SM
FEW050
9
WITI In Operations
Monday, December 15, 2008 IAH Low ceilings, GDP
of 36 According to WITI model for ceilings above
700 Ft, AAR of about 82 could have been sustained
(according to FAA OIS, IAH AAR for IMC varies
from about 72 to 80 depending on ceilings)
IAH METAR and TAF data
9
10
WITI In Operations
Monday, December 15, 2008 LGA Wind, GDP of
32-36 Actual wind was generally below 15 Kt, less
than forecast
LGA METAR and TAF data
10
11
WITI In Operations
Onset of clouds AOB 2300ft happened earlier than
forecast
12
AvnFPS

• Operational Impact Capability

13
Assessing Forecast Impact on Operations

• Part of QCing TAFs before dissemination
• Default checks on TAFs are from NWSI 10-813
• Fuel-Alternate
• vsby lt 3 miles or ceilings lt 2000 feet
• LIFR Condition
• vsby lt 1 mile or ceilings lt 500 feet
• More sophisticated checks are possible and can be
  tailored to specific airports having unique
  operational constraints

14
TAF Impact Writing

• Elements of the TAF forecast groups can be
  examined and used in expression attribute of
  impact rules
• Presence of thunderstorms (ts) True/False
• Visibility (vsby) statue miles
• Ceiling Height (cig) feet
• Wind (wind.shift,wind.cross,wind.runway) knots
• expr is a Python expression that evaluates
  either True or False.

15
TAF Impact Writing

• A forecast of strong crosswinds at a major hub
  can cause ground delays. Use BOS as an example.
• Need runway orientations to calculate wind
  components orthogonal and parallel to runway(s)

Runway 4R/22L referenced as 0 Runway 9/27
referenced as 1 Runway 15R/33L referenced as 2
16
TAF Impact Writing

• windn.cross crosswind for runway n
• windn.runway parallel component to runway n
• windn.shift tail-to-head or head-to-tailwind
  change from last forecast group (T or F)
• Edit /awips/adapt/avnfps/etc/tafs/KBOS/impact.cfg

conditions itemscond_1,cond_2,cond_3,cond_4

cond_3 tagwshft level2 textsignificant
windshift on 15R/33L exprwind2.shift and
wind2.runwaygt15 cond_4 tagxw level3 textsi
gnificant crosswind on 15R/33L exprwind2.crossgt
15
17
Monitoring Customization

• AvnFPS Rule Editor allows customized rules of
  many sources
• METARs
• Lightning
• LLWS
• CCFP

• See AvnFPS Users Guide Appendix B for more
  details

18
TAF Editor Tools

• Dropping new modules into the /toolpy directory
  will cause it to show up in the TAF Editor

• More details on writing TAF Editor tools can be
  found in Appendix F of the AvnFPS Users Guide

19
Enhanced Services

• Routine 3 hour amendments (at least the OEP
  Airports)
• CONSISTENCY between products
• Coordinate with CWSUs
• 06Z and 12Z TAFs are very important
• Timing of convection is key in the 06Z and 12Z
  TAFs
• Be situationally aware of the CCFP product

20
Best Practices

• Focus on the first six hours of the forecast
• Lean toward GFS-LAMP when IFR conditions are
  occurring
• An average of the guidance is often a good
  forecast.
• Check Arrival Fix

http//www.fly.faa.gov/Products/AADC/aadc.html
21
Corridor Integrated Weather System
Canadian
TDWR
NEXRAD
Pilots
Weather Radars
Decision Support Tools
Real-time Weather Product Generator
Models (e.g., RUC)
LLWAS
ASOS
Satellites
Web-based Tools
Surface Weather

• Provides integrated weather picture to FAA and
  Airline personnel
• Accurate 2-hour convective weather forecast, echo
  top information
• 91 Dedicated displays, gt 60 Web users
• 24/7 Availability

Aircraft
Dedicated Displays
Lightning
22
Strategic Planning

• Air Traffic Management (ATM) Planning
• Tactical Planning (0-2hr)
• Strategic Planning (2-6hr)

Median Flight Time 2 hr
2 hr
5 hr
3 hr
2 hr
23
Web Site Access to CIWS Productshttp//ciwswww.wx
.ll.mit.edu
Post-June 2008 CONUS Domain
Pre-June 2008 Legacy Domain
24
Response to User Requests
Colors for the Forecast and Verification Contours
and the Growth and Decay Trends products are
added to the legend
Coverage is extended to the entire continental US
All products loop
All products are accessible from a single window
Updated loop controls provide greater
flexibility, including ability to toggle through
images
25
Winter Mode
26
Winter Precipitation Product

• Provides additional detail within Level 1
  precipitation, which may contain light (Level
  1a), moderate (Level 1b), or heavy (Level lc)
  snow or mixed precipitation
• Precipitation phase is represented in greens
  (rain), pinks (mixed), and blues (snow)
• Loops from -120 min to present in user-selectable
  increments

Filter Options
Product Status Buttons
27
Winter Precip Forecast Product

• Loops available from 5 min to 120 min in 5-min
  increments
• Loop interval displayed on Website is
  user-selectable
• Spatial resolution is a function of zoom 4 nmi
  (8 km) to 0.5 nmi (1 km)
• Update rate 5 min

Filter forecast levels
Product Status Buttons
28
Convective Mode
29
Growth and Decay
30
Forecast Contours
31
CIWS Forecast
32
WFO Operational Uses

• 0-2 hour timing for TAFs and AWWs

KBOS 281120Z 281212 27006KT P6SM FEW250 FM1500
20007KT P6SM BKN250 FM1800 15011KT P6SM
SCT050 FM2200 20009KT P6SM VCTS BKN050CB FM0200
24008KT P6SM SCT050 KBOS 281740Z 282118
28014G19KT P6SM VCSH SCT060 FM0200 24008KT P6SM
SCT050 FM1500 28010KT P6SM SCT050
12Z TAF
18Z TAF
33
AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TAUNTON MA 1224 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008 ...AIRPORT
WEATHER WARNING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
UNTIL 130 PM A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS LOGAN AIRPORT AROUND 1 PM. WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH AND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AIRPORT
BEFORE 130 PM.
1625z CIWS Forecast Contours
34
WFO Operational Use

• Enhanced Short Term Forecasting

6 Hour PoP Forecast
2 Hour PoP Forecast Using CIWS
35
Wiki

• David L. Beachler WFO-CTP
• Fred McMullen ERH-RAM

36
What is it and why

• Wiki -gt Wikipedia
• Housed on a centralized server, and maintained by
  anyone wishing to participate
• Information provides background to local program
  areas, and a means to share information with
  fewer email traffic
• AVN page serves as a clearinghouse
• Organized format, provides resources in a timely
  fashion (Service BackupTAFs)
• Runway charts, approach diagrams, etc will show
  example from WFO-CTP later

37
ERH-MSD Aviation Wiki

• Eastern Region (ER) RAM can provide information
  to Aviation Focal Points (AFPs)
• AFPs have access to best practices from other ER
  WFOs
• Outside box thinking
• Serve as a resource for WFOs conducting service
  backup

38
So where do we start

• ERH now maintains ER-Wiki server
• https//collaborate.werh.noaa.gov/wiki/index.php/M
  ain_Page
• (email username without _at_noaa.gov and email
  password)

39
The look
40
ERH-MSD Main Page
41
ERH-Aviation page
42
Collaborative Tools
43
AVN-CTP
44
Standardized Template

• WFO-AFPs will have their own section
• This will be uniform amongst all offices in the
  structure
• TAF sites/Airport Specific Info/Amendment
  Criteria (SSTAC)
• ER Verification Monthly Scores

45
Standardized Template (draft)
46
Training

• Previously mentioned, no IT background needed
• The ER-AVN Wiki page continues to evolve
• Improvements as more provide feedback
• Standardized nomenclature for AVN items
• This will provide a means to remain efficient
• Prevent future issues with overlaps
• This is common amongst time sensitive documents
  that can be uploaded

47
Contact Info

• David L. Beachler WFO-CTP AFP
• David.Beachler_at_noaa.gov
• Fred McMullen ERH-RAM
• Fred.Mcmullen_at_noaa.gov

48
(No Transcript)