New Homeowner Attitudes on Wildfire Risk

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New Homeowner Attitudes on Wildfire Risk

• Examining Home Purchase Decisions in Colorado
  Springs Wildland-Urban Interface

Patricia A. Champ U.S. Forest Service, Rocky
Mountain Research Station Christopher M. Barth
Colorado Springs Fire Department
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New Homeowner Attitudes on Wildfire Risk

• Introductions
• CSFD FireWise Program
• Non-Market Valuation Hedonic Study
• Examining Home Purchase Decisions in the WUI
  Social Survey
• Conclusions

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CSFD FireWiseProgram Timeline
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Wildfire Hazard Assessments
FireWise Website
Wildfire Mitigation Plan
Curbside Chipping
Hayman Fire
Citizen Recognition
Class A Roofing Ordinance
Social Survey
Hedonic Study
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Historical Overview

• Camp Carson/Cheyenne Mountain Fire - 1950

• Big Burn - 1854

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Colorado Springs Wildland-Urban Interface

• 28,800 Acres
• 44 Square Miles
• 29,210 Residential Structures
• Cultural Resources
• Natural Resources
• Military Resources

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Wildfire Hazard Ratings

• Parcel Level Ratings
• WHINFOE Model
• 25 Unique Characteristics
• Weighted Values

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FireWise Website http//csfd.springsgov.com
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FireWise Program

• Postcards

• On-Site Consultations

• Neighborhood Meetings

• Newsletter

• Media

• Recognition

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Wildland Risk

• Curbside Chipping

• Mitigation Projects

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Operations

• Suppression

• Brush Patrol

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(No Transcript)
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Initial Questions

• We know that other natural hazards (earthquakes,
  floods) affect home prices.what about wildfire?
• Do homebuyers care about wildfire risk? Has the
  Colorado Springs Fire Departments FireWise
  Program affected preferences of homebuyers?

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Two Parts to This Study

• A model of housing market data looks at the
  effect of parcel level wildfire risk ratings on
  house prices in Colorado Springs. Data allow us
  to unbundle confounding effects of wildfire risk
  and amenity values (i.e. good views positively
  related to higher wildfire risk).
• A survey of recent homebuyersdid wildfire risk
  rating affect their purchase decision?

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Previous Research on Home Prices and Wildfire

• Loomis (2004) Effect of a wildfire event on
  property values. Found a decrease in housing
  values after a wildfire event.
• Mueller (unpublished) Effect of multiple
  wildfires in area on housing prices. First
  wildfire decreases home values. Second wildfire
  in same area causes an even bigger decrease in
  house prices.
• FEMA study (2001) after Los Alamos fire. Found
  the housing price went UP after fire.
• No one has looked at wildfire risk.

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Study Location

• Wildland-urban interface area of Colorado Springs
• Proximate to Pike National Forest, Pikes Peak
  Ranger District
• No major wildfires (or prescribed burns) since
  1950
• Prior to that, two recorded wildfires
• 1854 (several 1000 acres)
• 1950 (9 fatalities and 92 buildings destroyed)

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Background

• Overall risk ratings EXTREME, VERY HIGH, HIGH,
  MODERATE, and LOW
• Comprised of 25 variables (weights are a secret)
• Most important variables construction material
  (roof and siding), proximity to dangerous
  topography, slope, vegetation density around the
  house, and defensible space
• Average website homepage visits
• 676 hits per day in 2002
• 870 hits per day in 2005

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Part 1 The Hedonic Model

• Patty Champ USFS, RMRS
• Geoffrey Donovan USFS, PNW
• David Butry - NIST

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Data for Hedonic Model

• CSFD overall risk ratings and underlying
  variables for 35,000 parcels
• 9,903 home sales January 1, 1998 September 21,
  2004 (El Paso County)
• 6,787 sold pre-website (July 1, 2002)
• 3,116 sold post website

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Data for Hedonic Model (cont.)

• Typical house in the study population
• 27 years old
• 7.8 rooms
• 3.5 bedrooms
• 2.9 bathrooms
• 1970 sf
• 16,000 sf lot
• 244,000 mean sales price

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Four models

• Overall risk variables (wildfire risk model)
• Pre-website
• Post website
• Underlying risk variables (amenity model)
• Pre-website
• Post website

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Models

• Across all four models housing characteristics
  look as one would expect (thats a good sign)
• Duplex ?Phome relative to detached single home
• Condo ?Phome relative to detached single home
• Tract ? Phome relative to custom home
• Mansion ?Phome relative to custom home
• Age ?Phome in pre-website models
• Age ? Phome in post website models
• Finished basement SF ?Phome
• Garage SF ?Phome
• Lot size ?Phome
• Year of sale ?Phome (shows prices rising over
  time)

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Overall Risk Model
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Amenity Model (Individual Risk Variables)
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Findings

• Pre-website, overall risk ratings positively
  related to price
• Post-website, no statistically significant
  relationship observed between overall risk and
  price
• Pre and post website, proximity to dangerous
  topography associated with higher sales prices
• Pre-website, wood roofs increase sales price.
  Post website, they decrease the sales price.
  Wood siding decreases price post website
• Appears as though the CSFD informational campaign
  (website) has had an effect on the housing market

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Part 2 A Survey of Individuals Who Purchased
Homes in the Colorado Springs WUI Post Website

• Patty Champ USFS, RMRS
• Geoffrey Donovan USFS, PNW
• Chris Barth Colorado Springs Fire Department

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Overview

• CSFD administered a survey to a random sample of
  898 individuals who purchased their home in the
  WUI since July 2002 (after the website was
  launched)
• Survey
• Awareness of CSFD FireWise Program
• When in home purchase process did they learn
  about wildfire risk, concern about wildfire,
  expectations about wildfire
• Experience with website (if they used it)
• Information sources for wildfire risk info
• Personal experience with wildfire
• Demographics

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Procedures

• August 2006 mailed a draft survey to 50 Colorado
  Springs WUI households. Based on those comments,
  developed final survey instrument
• November 2006 mailed 898 surveys with a cover
  letter signed by the CSFD Fire Chief
• December 2006 mailed 534 surveys to those that
  did not respond to the first mailing
• 52 response rate, 430 useable surveys

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Results

• Description of the survey respondents
• Respondents experiences with CSFD
• Home purchases and wildfire risk

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Survey Respondents

• Respondent demographics
• Average age 48 yrs.
• 100 graduated from high school 37 advanced
  degrees
• 79 married
• 51 male
• 44 household income gt 100,000
• 94 internet access from home 86 access daily

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Respondents Similar to Population with Respect to
Wildfire Risk
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Perceptions of Wildfire Risk Positively
Correlated with Actual Risk yet Underestimate
Risk
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Respondents are Not Very Concerned About Wildfire
Damaging or Destroying Home

• 13 Very concerned
• 34 Somewhat concerned
• 41 Not very concerned
• 21 Not at all concerned
• Howeverrespondents with higher risk ratings were
  more likely to be very or somewhat concerned

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Awareness of Colorado Springs Fire Departments
FireWise Program

• Many survey respondents (42) aware the CSFDs
  FireWise Program provides information to
  homeowners about wildfire risk
• Respondents with extreme or very high
  wildfire risk ratings were more likely to be
  aware of the CSFD FireWise program than those
  with lower ratings
• 22 of those aware have attended a wildfire
  presentation by CSFD
• 92 of those aware said info provided by CSFD was
  useful

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Awareness of Colorado Springs Fire Departments
FireWise Program

• Not many respondents (16) had accessed the
  CSFDs FireWise website
• Of the 84 that had NOT accessed the CSFDs
  FireWise website
• 80 said it would have been useful to have
  wildfire risk information when making home
  purchase decision
• 81 said they will now check website

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What About the Respondents Who had Visited the
FireWise Website?

• The most common way to learn about the website
  was through a Homeowners Association or
  Neighborhood Organization (37) or a FireWise
  postcard or newsletter (28)
• Only 4 learned about website from their real
  estate agent
• 97 said the website was easy to use

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How Did Respondents Who Visited the Website Use
the Information?

• 82 to learn about wildfire risk rating on their
  home
• 51 to learn how to reduce the risk of wildfire
• 12 to get information about an on-site
  consultation

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How Much Confidence Do Those Who Visited the
Website Have in the Accuracy of the Risk
Evaluation Map (Parcel Level Ratings)?

• 2 No Confidence
• 46 Some Confidence
• 49 Complete Confidence
• 3 Never looked at the map

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Where Did Respondents Get Information
AboutReducing the Risk of Wildfire?

• 45 Media
• 37 CSFD
• 26 Neighborhood Group
• 19 Have not received any information about
  wildfire risk
• 14 Neighbors, friends, or family members
• 12 USFS
• 5 CSFS

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Are All Information Sources Equal?

• No
• Respondents who got information from CSFD, a
  neighborhood group, or neighbors were more likely
  to have scheduled a consultation and thinned
  vegetation.
• This is not true for respondents who received
  information from the media, CSFS, USFS, etc.
• Can not say how information flowsperhaps media,
  CSFS, USFS influence homeowners to get more
  specific information from CSFD or HOA...another
  interesting research question.

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Wildfire Risk and Home Purchase
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Wildfire Risk and Home Purchase

• 75 were not concerned about wildfire risk when
  they purchased their home
• 27 realized their home was located in an area at
  risk of wildfire prior to making an offer on the
  home
• 48 said they did not know their house was
  located in an area at risk from wildfire

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Conclusions

• What the Survey Told Us
• Website and Home Purchase Decisions
• Program Assessment
• Meeting Our Goals
• Moved to Action
• Target Audience
• Website
• Future Directions
• Defined Audience