Modelling perspective: Key limitations of current country projection data in transboundary modelling

1
Modelling perspective Key limitations of current
country projection data in transboundary
modelling activities. What improvements are
needed?

• Jan Eiof Jonson and Leonor Tarrason

2
Why do you need EMEP model results on projections?

• Input to national implementation plans and
  procedures.
• Information on the chemical weather regime in
  2020.

3
Projections presently used in the EMEP model1
value per country per sector Ancillary data used
per sector


Meteorologisk Institutt met.no
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What data are now missing?

• Information on relevant NFR sectors
• Spatial distribution information (gridding)
• Expected seasonal variations

5
My interpretationAre there inconsistencies
and/or effects that you should be aware of?

• I will not talk about uncertainties in emission
  estimates
• Seasonal cycles in emissions (sector)
• NO/NO2 ratios
• Changes in emissions from ships (and aviation)
• Underlying trends (Ozone)
• (Changes in) landuse, natural PM, biomass burning
• Meteorological variability (and trends?)

6
Different sectors different seasonal cycles
Changes between sectors. Does it matter when
you emit???
7
Calculated difference in NO2 in µg m-3, 1990 -
2002

• Summer (June, July, August)
• Winter (January, February)

8
Em1990 scenarioDecrease in summer ozone.
Increase north of the Alps in winter.
9
Does the NO/NO2 ratio matter in the emissions?
10
Effect of particle trap on NO2 concentrations
2020 emissions
11
Difference in PM2.5 and somo35 caused by changes
in NO/NO2 ratio
2020 emissions
12
2020 Emissions in sea areas ( inside 12 mile
zone in red)
13
SOx emissions from ships in Mg
14
Effects on Belgium (perturbations scaled to 100)
15
Effects on ItalyPerturbations scaled to 100
16
Ozone trends at Mace Head
From Simmonds et al. (2004)
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AvgBC scenario Effect of Mace Head correction
Summer
Winter
Mace Head (IE31)
Waldhof (DE02
Obs.
Model
No MH
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Conclusions

• Effects to be aware of
• Sector emissions seasonal cycles
• Underlying trends Background ozone, biomass
  burning, global change
• Meteorological variability
• What is missing?
• Need projections by sector (reported in NFR)
• Gridded projections (by sector)
• Emissions from ships (routing)

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MEAN SURFACE OZONE ENHANCEMENTS FROM
ANTHROPOGENIC NOx AND NMVOC EMISSIONS BY
DIFFERENT CONTINENTS
GEOS-CHEM model, July 1997
North America
Europe
Asia
Li et al. 2002
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Main features of the EMEP model

• 3D Eulerian model
• Polar stereographic projection
• 132x111 grid. 50kmx50km resolution
• 20 vertical layers
• HIRLAM50 meteorology
• Botts advection scheme
• 20 minutes master timestep, 12 substeps for
  chemistry
• Dry and wet deposition
• 71 chemical compounds, whereof 15 short-lived