The Science behind Scenario Planning: Complex Systems Analysis

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Oliver Chikumbo
Centre for Sustainable Forest Management
The Science behind Scenario Planning Complex
Systems Analysis
www.forestresearch.co.nz/sfm
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Sustainability of ecosystem goods services
healthy ecosystem
diverse array of processes
sustainability
goods services to humanity
Goods items given monetary value in the
marketplace
Services valued but rarely bought or sold
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Managing ecosystem sustainability

• interactions are a major challenge for
  example
• ecosystem management requires careful planning
• integrated of differing views and components
  vital
• decision support systems sustainability of the
  whole

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Decision support systems

• Problems
• data spatial time-series
• real world problems - fraught with multiple
  conflicting objectives that have to be traded-off
• numerous combinations possible

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Case Study Eden Management Area (NSW,
Australia)

• Problem
• management of 5734 forest stands 200 000 ha
• goal to satisfy 7 conflicting objectives -
• - harvesting forestry capital budgeting water
  quantity sediment movement (water quality)
  fauna habitat quality adjacency (blocksize
  constraint green-up period)

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Eden Management Area model
Fauna Model
Economic Information
STANDSIM Inventory records
Cm
C-PLAN
forestry operation costs revenue
animal populations
timber yield tables
Sediment Movement Models
reserve / off-reserve design
AQUALM
Data integration
water production
sediment production
Trade-off algorithms
GIS
WEB
OUTPUT
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Ecosystem goods and services

• Reduced sedimentation
• Water quality and quantity
• Reduced land slipping
• Maximise C storage
• Increased biodiversity
• Increased scenic values
• Improved economics (industry opportunities
  employment)

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Conclusions
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Planning Natural Ecosystems
AGRICULTURE
BIODIVERSITY
STRATEGIC
RECREATION VALUES
WATER VALUES
WOOD
WILDLIFE
ALLOCATE RESOURCES 50 100 years
SECURITY AREAS
ADJACENCY
MANAGE RESOURCE USE Accomplish objectives 1 10
year Plans
RESOURCE TO ROAD TRIGGERS
OPERATIONAL
CORRIDORS
LAND CONDITION
SERVICES
GOODS
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Systems Theory
v(t)
output
stimuli
input
system
y(t)
u(t)
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Example plantation ecosystem
irrigation
species
re-arrangement
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Primary goals of ecological sustainability

• maintaining vitality of ecosystems (i.e.
  ecological processes, including soil formation,
  energy flows and carbon, water and nutrient
  cycles)
• maintaining biological diversity
• managing the net social benefit derived from a
  mix of land uses within ecological constraints

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Ecosystem "services" include
Maintaining hydrological cycles Regulating
climate Cleansing water and air Maintaining
the gaseous composition of the atmosphere
Pollinating crops and other important plants
Generating and maintaining soils Storing and
cycling essential nutrients Absorbing and
detoxifying pollutants Providing beauty,
inspiration, and recreation
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Ecosystem "goods" include Food
Construction materials Medicinal plants Wild
genes for domestic plants and animals Tourism
and recreation
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Ecosystem processes include
Maintenance of energy flux,
dissipation, climate change Maintenance of
hydrologic flux, hydrologic cycle, water
quality Biological productivity, plant
pollination Maintenance of biogeochemical
cycling, storage, mineral-gaseous cycles,
water-air quality Decomposition, weathering,
soil development-stability, soil quality
Maintenance of biological diversity Absorbing,
buffering, diluting, detoxifying
pollutants-xenobiotic