The SENSOR project and SIAT

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The SENSOR project and SIAT

• Katharina Fricke
• fricke_at_zalf.de

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Gliederung

• Summary SENSOR Project - Sustainability Impact
  Assessment tools for environmental, social and
  economic effects of multifunctional land use in
  European Regions
• Implications for a Sustainability Impact
  Assessment Tool (SIAT)
• Sustainability Impact Assessment Tool (SIAT)

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Ex-ante Impact Assessment
The role of Impact Assessment for European Policy
MakingIA Guidelines, June 2005
Impact Assessment
1. identifying the policy problem
EC level consultation
2. defining the objectives
Sustainability Impact Assessment Tools
3. developing the main policy options
4. analysing their impacts
5. comparing the options
6. outlining policy monitoring and
evaluation
Stakeholder involvement
after Tabbush et al. 2005
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SENSOR
Sustainability Impact Assessment Tools for
environmental, social and eoconomic effects of
multifunctional land use in European Regions
Frame conditions Purpose Assess EU
policies related to land use and rural
development Enduser EU Policy
makers Scale Regional (NUTS2/3) scale
with European coverage
(EU 2721) Constraint Use existing
pan-European data Consortium 33 European
partners from 15 countries Extension 3
partners from Latin America and 2 from China
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NUTS

• Nomenclature des unités territoriales
  statistiques Systematik der Gebietseinheiten
  für die Statistik
• hierarchische Systematik zur eindeutigen
  Identifizierung und Klassifizierung der
  räumlichen Bezugseinheiten der Amtlichen
  Statistik in den Mitgliedsländern der
  Europäischen Union
• NUTS 0 Nationalstaaten
• NUTS 1 Größere Regionen/Landesteile
• NUTS 2 Mittlere Regionen/Landschaften
• NUTS 3 Kleinere Regionen/Großstädte
• LAU 1 Gemeindeverbände
• LAU 2 Gemeinden
• (LAU Local administrative unit)
• Verordnung (EG) Nr. 105/2007 der Kommission vom
  1. Februar 2007 zur Änderung der Anhänge der
  Verordnung (EG) Nr. 1059/2003 des Europäischen
  Parlaments und des Rates über die Schaffung einer
  gemeinsamen Klassifikation der Gebietseinheiten
  für die Statistik (NUTS)

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Assumptions

• Socio economic drivers (demographic change, the
  participation rate in the labour force, world
  economic growth, the world oil price,and
  expenditure on research development )
• Policy cases

Driver
Models
Pressure

• Economic adjustments
• Land use change

• Bio-geophysical indicators
• Socio economic indicators

State

• Impact issues
• impact identification and impact valuation
• Relation to landscape function

Values
Impact

• Sustainable development
• Land Use Functions

Actions

• Up to decision maker
• Not requested from SENSOR

Response
Land Use Policies
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SIAT

• Sustainability Impact Assessment Tool

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Rationale
Project aim Focus for SIAT
To deliver ex-ante Impact Assessment Tools (SIAT)
to support decision making on policies related to
multifunctional land use in Europe and in
targeted third countries (since Dec. 2006)
IA- Guidelines (EC 2005) 1 Identifying the policy
problem 2 Defining the objective 3 Developing the
main policy options 4 Analysing the impacts 5
Comparing the options 6 Outlining policy
monitoring and evaluation
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SIAT Development
Methods Complementary Application

• Evolutionary rapid development operational
  prototyping (Guida 1999)
• Requirement analysis by stakeholder involvement
  (Wiegers 2003).

• Reviewing and benchmarking of existing knowledge
• Adjustment of basic requirements
• Develop a simplistic Prototype
• Group discussions with end users
• Targeted input by expert interviews
• Final negotiation with regard to given capacities

G. Guida , G.Lamperti , M. Zanella Software
Prototyping in Data and Knowledge Engineering,
Kluwer Academic Publishers, Norwell, MA,
1999. K.E. Wiegers Software Requirements, Second
Edition. Redmond,Wash. Microsoft Press, 2003.
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SIAT Challenges

• Comparative static Meta-Model
• Trade offs across 6 sectors
• SIA, policy impacts / valuation
• Response protocols knowledge rules
• Stakeholder-validation
• Server-based application
• Flexibility (OpenMI)
• More than 100 indicators, NutsX and Nuts2-level
• Indicators, LUF, Thresholds
• Transparency, Traceability

Definition
Methods
Results
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Methodology
2 Translation to functions
3 Output results
1 Input policy variables
Change in land use
Subsidies
Commitments
Taxes
Agriculture
Policy variable
Forestry
environmental
Tourism
Indicator value
Indicator 1
Energy
Indicator 2
economic
Indicator 3
Transport
social
Sustainability threshold
Nature Co
Indicator 4
Indicator 5
Change in land use
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Scenario development
A Reference Scenarios
B Policy Cases

• 2012 CAP financial reform
• Bioenergy policies
• Forest Strategy
• Biodiversity (e.g. Natura 2000, HNV farmland)
• Transportation policies

Oil price Demography Participation rate World
demand RD expenditure
High growth Business as usual Low growth
Projection year 2025
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Integrated assessment of indicators in LUF
Spatial reference III 30 region
clusters (Renetzeder, Wrbka et al.)
Work
Land based production
Health Recreation
Cultural
Ecosystem processes
Infrastructure
Residential non-land based industry
Habitat
Abiotic resources
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Prototype III
System Integration
Modelling framework
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Prototype III
System Integration
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SIAT prototype III
Knowledge base
End User Tool

• Current integration state
• 192 fact sheets
• including long versions
• 22 environmental indicators(34)
• 31 social indicators (64)
• 14 economic indicators (17)
• 1 policy case, 3 instr.
• (1 in process)

• Current integration state
• complete system integration
• to display full storyline
• graphical re-design
• new GUI

• Current integration state
• complete system integration
• to display full storyline
• graphical re-design
• new GUI

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Prototyp II des SIAT http//www.ip-sensor.org/
Products - SIA-Tool