VegDRI: 2005 Retrospective and Future Plans

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VegDRI 2005 Retrospective and Future Plans

• Jesslyn Brown
• SAIC
• USGS/Earth Resources Observation and Science

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Main Topics

• Project Timeline
• 2005 Key Events, Status, Issues
• Future Directions
• Current and future sensors (MODIS, VIIRS)
• Drought decision supportrangeland producers

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VegDRI Timeline
Proposal to USGS Geographic Prospectus
Proposal to NASA Decisions CAN
USGS
NASA
Proposal to USDA Risk Management Agency
USDA-RMA
Development of prototype VegDRI System
Link to NIDIS
Build operational VegDRI System
Calculation of prototype spatial products
Test operational VegDRI System
Transition to MODIS NDVI
Evaluation of VegDRI products
Database built using AVHRR inputs
Test MODIS SWIR-based products
Web mapping viewer
Integration into USDM
Quasi-operational product delivery
Put into operation
Research drought prediction
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
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Can Remote Sensing Help Address Limitations of
USDM?

• Coarse level of spatial detail
• Lack of detailed, accurate, and objective
  assessments of range and pasture conditions
• Gaps in observation networks (especially in the
  West)
• (Svoboda et al. 2002 Western Governors
  Association 2004)

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Principal Drought Monitor Inputs
CPC Daily Soil Model
USGS Streamflow
Palmer Drought Index

30-day Precip.
USDA Soil Ratings
Satellite Veg Health
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Source Felix Kogan, NOAA
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• Resolution is quite coarseclimate divisions
• Is vegetation health drought-related?
• Seasonality of vegetation not taken into account

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15 years of AVHRR satellite greenness data
permit studies of relative condition of land
surface
Start of Season End of Season Length of
Season Growing season greenness Greenness
to-date
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Timeline
Proposal to USGS Geographic Prospectus
Proposal to NASA Decisions CAN
USGS
NASA
Proposal to USDA Risk Management Agency
USDA-RMA
Development of prototype VegDRI System
Link to NIDIS
Build operational VegDRI System
Calculation of prototype spatial products
Test operational VegDRI System
Transition to MODIS NDVI
Constructed database using AVHRR and climate
inputs
Evaluation of VegDRI products
Test MODIS SWIR-based products
Web mapping viewer
Integration into USDM
Quasi-operational product delivery
Put into operation
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
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Internet portal for data access and distribution
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Integrating Satellite and Climate Data

• Seasonal greenness condition from satellite
  highlights areas with anomalous vegetation
  condition
• Deficits (compared to average condition) might be
  caused by drought, flooding, late greennup, land
  cover conversion, etc.
• Climate information is needed to provide evidence
  that enables interpretation of the satellite data
  anomalies

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Timeline
Proposal to USGS Geographic Prospectus
Proposal to NASA Decisions CAN
USGS
NASA
Proposal to USDA Risk Management Agency
USDA-RMA
Development of prototype VegDRI System
Link to NIDIS
Build operational VegDRI System
Calculation of prototype spatial products
Test operational VegDRI System
Transition to MODIS NDVI
Evaluation of VegDRI products
Constructed database using AVHRR and climate
inputs
Test MODIS SWIR-based products
Web mapping viewer
Integration into USDM
Quasi-operational product delivery
Put into operation
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
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Study Area

• 780 Weather Stations
• 7 Attributes
• Standardized Precipitation Index
• PASG (derived from satellite NDVI)
• Available Water Capacity
• Ecoregions
• Land Cover
• SOS anomaly
• PDSI

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Regression Tree Method

• Data mining technique ideally suited for the
  analysis of complex data
• Flexible and robust
• Deals with nonlinear relationships
• Simple to understand
• Generates a statistical model with rules that can
  then be applied to geospatial data for map output

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Methodological Approach
Model Inputs
Avg Seasonal Greenness
VegDRI (Vegetation Drought Response Index)
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Results for Seven-state Prototype Area

• Regression tree model run on 780 weather
  stations, 7 attributes
• Produced rule-based models for 3 phases during
  the growing season
• Dependent variable PDSI

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Timeline
Proposal to USGS Geographic Prospectus
Proposal to NASA Decisions CAN
USGS
NASA
Proposal to USDA Risk Management Agency
USDA-RMA
Development of prototype VegDRI System
Link to NIDIS
Build operational VegDRI System
Calculation of prototype spatial products
Test operational VegDRI System
Transition to MODIS NDVI
Constructed database using AVHRR and climate
inputs
Evaluation of VegDRI products
Test MODIS SWIR-based products
Web mapping viewer
Integration into USDM
Quasi-operational product delivery
Put into operation
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
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Example VegDRI Products
1989
1993
2002
1997
2004
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May 3, 2005
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May 17, 2005
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May 31, 2005
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June 14, 2005
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June 28, 2005
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July 12, 2005
27
July 26, 2005
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August 9, 2005
29
August 23, 2005
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September 6, 2005
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September 20, 2005
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VegDRI map for July 25, 2002
Imagine how the USDM would have looked if one of
the inputs was VegDRI
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Timeline
Proposal to USGS Geographic Prospectus
Proposal to NASA Decisions CAN
USGS
NASA
Proposal to USDA Risk Management Agency
USDA-RMA
Development of prototype VegDRI System
Link to NIDIS
Build operational VegDRI System
Calculation of prototype spatial products
Test operational VegDRI System
Transition to MODIS NDVI
Constructed database using AVHRR and climate
inputs
Evaluation of VegDRI products
Test MODIS SWIR-based products
Web mapping viewer
Integration into USDM
Quasi-operational product delivery
Put into operation
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
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Timeline
Proposal to USGS Geographic Prospectus
Proposal to NASA Decisions CAN
USGS
NASA
Proposal to USDA Risk Management Agency
USDA-RMA
Development of prototype VegDRI System
Link to NIDIS
Build operational VegDRI System
Calculation of prototype spatial products
Test operational VegDRI System
Transition to MODIS NDVI
Constructed database using AVHRR and climate
inputs
Evaluation of VegDRI products
Test MODIS SWIR-based products
Web mapping viewer
Integration into USDM
Quasi-operational product delivery
Put into operation
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
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Evaluation

• Qualitative and quantitative evaluation
• Citizen panels
• Assembling users in South Dakota and Nebraska to
  collect feedback on products and web page
• Comparison with truth
• Appropriate ground data is scarce
• Crop yield
• Rangeland condition

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Issues

• Develop measures of uncertainty
• Accurate calculation and delivery of near-real
  time climate data
• Appropriate gridding techniques for climate
  dataoperations issue
• Appropriate weighting for remote sensing and
  climate variables

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Timeline
Proposal to USGS Geographic Prospectus
Proposal to NASA Decisions CAN
USGS
NASA
Proposal to USDA Risk Management Agency
USDA-RMA
Development of prototype VegDRI System
Link to NIDIS
Build operational VegDRI System
Calculation of prototype spatial products
Test operational VegDRI System
Transition to MODIS NDVI
Constructed database using AVHRR and climate
inputs
Evaluation of VegDRI products
Test MODIS SWIR-based products
Web mapping viewer
Integration into USDM
Quasi-operational product delivery
Put into operation
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
41
Timeline
Proposal to USGS Geographic Prospectus
Proposal to NASA Decisions CAN
USGS
NASA
Proposal to USDA Risk Management Agency
USDA-RMA
Development of prototype VegDRI System
Link to NIDIS
Build operational VegDRI System
Calculation of prototype spatial products
Test operational VegDRI System
Transition to MODIS NDVI
Constructed database using AVHRR and climate
inputs
Evaluation of VegDRI products
Test MODIS SWIR-based products
Web mapping viewer
Integration into USDM
Quasi-operational product delivery
Put into operation
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
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Spectral Sensitivity
Green Grass
Dark Soil
Dry Grass
VISIBLE
NEAR IR
SHORTWAVE INFRARED
UV
1
2
NOAA AVHRR 1970sgt
1
2
4
6
3
5
7
MODIS 2000gt
LANDSAT ETM 1990sgt
1
2
3
4
5
7
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MODIS NDVI
July 12, 2004
July 12, 2005
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MODIS NDWI2130
July 12, 2004
July 12, 2005
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Summary

• Remotely sensed data can provide complementary
  information to direct observations for drought
  monitoring
• Continuation of development for using improved
  satellite technology to address limitations in
  the USDM (i.e., filling gaps, sub-county scale)
• Facilitate understanding and quantify uncertainty

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Satellite-based Measures of Vegetation Condition
(Percent Average Seasonal Greenness)
Seasonal Greenness
x SG(89-02) 29
Percent of Average SG(02) 82.7
27
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6/28/00
6/28/01
6/28/02
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Political Spotlight on Drought

• Western Governors Association 2004 report on
  National Integrated Drought Information System
  (NIDIS)
• White House CENR Subcommittee for Disaster
  Reduction included drought as a Grand Challenge
• IWGEO working on a plan for NIDIS as a Near Term
  Opportunity
• In Congress, NIDIS is explicitly addressed in
  pending Domenici/Hastings/Rehberg Drought Bill