CLIVAR MJO WORKING GROUP WCRPWWRP MJO Task Force

1
CLIVAR MJO WORKING GROUP -gt WCRP/WWRP MJO Task
Force  
D. Waliser, K. Sperber, J. Gottschalck, H.
Hendon, W. Higgins, I. Kang, D. Kim, E. Maloney,
M. Moncrieff, K. Pegion, N. Savage, S. Schubert,
W. Stern, A. Vintzileos, F. Vitart, B. Wang, W.
Wang, K. Weickmann, M. Wheeler, S. Woolnough, C.
Zhang
VAMOS Panel Meeting 12 San Juan, Puerto Rico 2009
2
Motivation

• The MJO is the dominant form of intraseasonal
  variability in the Tropics.
• The MJO impacts a wide range of weather climate
  phenomena.
• Monsoon Onset Breaks
• ENSOIOD IInteractions
• Tropical Cyclone Modulation
• Midlatitude Weather Impacts
• Organization of Chl, Aerosols, Ozone, etc
  variability.
• Our weather climate models have a poor
  representation of the MJO.
• Great benefit could be derived from better
  predictions of the MJO - Helps to bridge the gap
  between weather and seasonal predictions.

Figures Maloney, PMEL/TAO, Nakazwa, MJO WG,
Lin, Waliser
3
Considerations of Remaining Predictability
2 week time scale will repeat itself 260 times
during lead time for one decadal prediction and
2600 times for 1 century projection.
4
US CLIVAR MJO Working Group 2006-08 Summary of
Accomplishments

• Develop MJO WG Web Site. www.usclivar.org/mjo.php
  
• Diagnostics Link, Meeting Telecon
  Updates, Theme Pages
• 2) Diagnostics for Asessing Model Simulations.
• On Website. J. Climate Article In Press. Also
  adopted by NCAR/NCL.
• 3) Application of Diagnostics to Models.
• CAM3.5, CAM-3Z, spcam, ECHAM4/OPYC, CFS, SNU,
  GFDL, GEOS5
• J. Climate Article REVISION JUST SUBMITTED.
• 4) Operational MJO Forecasts Metrics.
• Designed, Implemented at Several Opertional
  Centers, w/ WGNE Help
• and NCEP/CPC leading, BAMS Article drafted by J.
  Gottschalck
• 5) Workshop/Experimentation Planning
• November 2007, Irvine, CA. BAMS meeting summary
  published.

5
Model Simulation Diagnostics
Need systemmatic ways of assessing quality,
progress, model changes.
J. Climate Article In Press. Also adopted by
NCAR/NCL.
6
Model Simulation DiagnosticsApplication to
Contemporary Models
7
MJO Simulation Diagnostics W-F Precip U850
J. Climate Article In Press. Also adopted by
NCAR/NCL.
8
Developing an MJO Forecast Metric US CLIVAR MJO
WG Based on Wheeler Hendon 2004
9
Examples Display Format
Observational RMM1 / RMM2 values for the past 40
days 15-day model forecasts --Green
line Ensemble mean week 1 (thick), week 2
(thin) --Ensemble members light gray shading
90 of forecasts
dark gray shading 50 of forecasts
10
(a)
(c)
(b)
(d)
(e)
Figure 2 Wheeler and Hendon (2004) RMM phase
plots for five different ensemble forecasting
systems (a) NCPE, (b) CANM, (c) UKME, (d) ECMF
and (e) BOME (10days). The Realtime Multivariate
MJO index 1 and 2 are the x-axis and y-axis
respectively and range from -4 to 4. The numbers
and text within the box represent MJO phase. The
red and blue lines show the last 40 days of
observations (red--January 2009, blue--December
2008). The green line is the model ensemble mean
(thick--first 7 days, thinsecond 8 days) and
yellow lines are individual ensemble member
forecasts. The light (dark) gray shading
indicates that 90 (50) of the members fell
within highlighted region respectively. The
larger dot is the last observation point.
11
CLIVARWGNE -gt CPC/NCEP MJO Prediction Project
Common Metric -gt Compare/Validate ----gt MM
Ensemble
IMD and KMA planned
Courtesy J. Gottschalck
http//www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlin
k/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
12
MJO Workshop - 2007
New Approaches to Understanding, Simulating, and
Forecasting the Madden-Julian Oscillation
BAMS Meeting Summary
http//www.usclivar.org/mjo.php
13
CLIVAR MJO Workshop Recommendations
Follow on activities foci of collaborations
Renewing/Continuing MJOWG as WCRP/WWRP Task Force

• Further development of process-oriented
  diagnostics/metrics that improve our insight into
  the physical mechanisms for robust simulation of
  the MJO and that facilitate improvements in
  convective and other physical parameterizations
  relevant to the MJO . (e.g., GEWEX/GCSS, WGNE,
  YOTC)
• Continue to explore multi-scale interactions
  within the context of convectively-coupled
  equatorial waves, both in observations and by
  exploiting recent advances in high-resolution
  modeling frameworks, with particular emphasis on
  vertical structure and diabatic processes. (e.g,.
  YOTC, CMMAP, CASCADE, AMY)
• Expand efforts to develop and implement MJO
  forecast metrics under operational conditions,
  with additional focus on boreal summer and
  ensemble development. Includes the development of
  a multi-model hindcast to assess MJO
  predictability forecast skill and development
  of ensemble methods. (e.g., pan-Monsoon, Thorpex,
  WGNE, WGSIP, TFSIP, APCC, AMY).

14
Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) A Scientific
Framework for Addressing the Multi-scale
Organization of Tropical Convection and its
Interaction with the Global Circulation
Duane Waliser, JPL/Caltech Mitch Moncrieff,
NCAR Co-chairs, Science Planning Group
YOTC Data Archiving Period May 2008 Oct 2009
15
Prediction
Observations
Assessments
Service Delivery
Capacity Building
WWRP JSC 2008
16
MJO CCEWsMODELINGinIPCC Models
Difficult to get all Parts of the Variability
Right
Lin et al., 2005
17
MJO Simulation Diagnostics Mean Precip U850
Figure 1 November-April mean precipitation
(shaded) and 850hPa zonal wind (contoured) of a)
CMAP/NCEP1, b) CAM3.5, c) CAM3z, d) CFS, e)
CM2.1, f) ECHAM4/OPYC, g) GEOS5 h) SNU and i)
SPCAM. Contours of mean 850hPa zonal wind are
plotted every 3 ms-1, zero line is represented by
thick solid line. Unit is mmday-1 for
precipitation and ms-1 for 850hPa zonal wind.
18
Multi-Scale Structure
Nakazawa 1988
MJO
How Important is This Finer Structure To The
Phase Speed, Eastward Propagation, etc
19
Results from the Aqua-Planet Experiment (APE)
NICAM Model Looks promising e.g., Matsuno talk
Courtesy, Dave Williamson, NCAR
20
How to address this problem?
Winter 2005-6
Kelvin Waves
Rossby Waves
MJOs
Dominant Convectively-Coupled Tropical Waves
Projected onto OLR Anomalies. Wheeler and
Weickmann, 2001
21
Build a robust satellite Observing system
TOPEX sea surface height QuickScat ocean
surface winds TRMM precipitation TMI sea
surface temperature w/clouds AIRS temperature
and water vapor profiles CloudSat cloud
profiles Calipso aerosol/thin-cloud
profiles AMSRE ocean precip, water vapor, liquid
water MLS upper tropospheric water vapor, cloud
ice, temperature CERES TOA and surface radiative
fluxes MODIS cloud characteristics, ocean color,
land characteristics AURA platform atmospheric
composition/chemistry MISR aerosol and cloud
structure
22
Invest in In-Situ Measurements for
Diagnostic/process studies and data assimilation
T-PARC
AMY
23
Add In-situ measurements over tropical oceans for
Diagnostic/process studies and data assimilation
PIRATA
24
Develop high-Resolution Regional Global
Modeling ( Analysis) Capabilities
Global CSRM
MMF superparameterization
A CRM
A CRM
A GCM cell
(CSU, LLNL, GSFC, PNNL)
Frontier Research Center for Global Change
Courtesy Satoh
NCAR Tropical Chanel Momdel
25
Climate Biases Start with a Time Step
Forecast Bias
NCAR
Climate Bias
Forecast Bias
GFDL
Climate Bias
mm/day
26
YOTC Programmtic Hypothesis We can better
exploit the observation infrastructure and
modeling capabilities that we already have to
achieve better understanding, simulations and
predictions of tropical convection.
27
YOTC Progress Plans

• Science Plan Completed, Printed. Abridged
  version submitted to BAMS, Moncrieff et al., 1 of
  5 coordinated papers on seamless weather-climate
  prediction
• http//www.wmo.int/pages/about/sec/rescrosscut/doc
  uments/YOTC-Science-Plan.pdf.
• YOTC Science Sessions Fall AGU08, AMS09,
  Spring AGU09
• Implementation Plan Being Prepared
• (HiRes) Analysis (15 day) Forecast Data Sets
• ECMWF 25km, Available on-line w/ extra
  diabatic fields.
• NASA/GEOS5 - 25km, calculations in progress, w/
  extra fields
• NCEP - 50km, archiving occuring, extra diabatic
  fields needs O(100k)).
• Satellite Data Sets, Archive and Dissemination
• Approximately 15 key satellite-mission data sets
  have been identified for inclusion. NASA GES
  DISC Giovanni system is proposed for
  dissemination. Seeking support from NASA for the
  dissemination.
• Synoptic Event / Period of Interest Discussions
  Underway
• TC, MJO, CCEWs, Monsoon, Diurnal Cycle

28
IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
29
YoTC Analyses Forecasts

• ECMWF
• T799 Analyses
• 10-day Forecasts
• Weather Analyses
• High-Res ICs BCs
• Weather/Satellite Comparison
• Special diabatic and other fields saved.
• Source NSF ONR

http//data-portal.ecmwf.int/data/d/yotc/
30
Satellite Data Analysis Dissemination
NASA Giovanni A-Train Data Interfaces
AIRS AMSR-E CALIPSO CERES CloudSat GPS ISCCP MLS
MODIS PEHRRP QuikSCAT TRMM/TMI
31
(No Transcript)
32
YOTC A-Train Data Co-Location Possibilities for
Studying Modeling Cloud/Convection
MLS
CERES
UTLS T(p), q(p), qi(p), CO (p), O3(p), HNO3(p)
TOA and SFC radiative fluxes
P (hpa)
CALIPSO
Aerosol (p) Cloud (p)
t lt 3
qi(p)
AIRS q(p) T(p)
CloudSat
qi(p) IWP ql(p) LWP Cloud Type (p) Particle
Size (p) Light Precip
MODIS
ECMWF w(p) u(p) du/dp(p) divH(p)
Aerosol Opt Depth Cloud Top - Temperature
Pressure, Particle Size, etc
ql(p)
AMSR Precipitation SST Prec Water LWP Surf. Wind
Speed
Light Precip
33
EXAMPLE Synoptic Event of Interest June/July
2008 MJO/Kelvin Waves -gt E.Pac ITCZ -gt TCs -gt
Gulf Surge -gt NA Monsoon -gt Flash Floods AZ, NM
Contributed by J. Gottschalck/NCEP M.
Wheeler/ABOM
Developing MJO-like system June 3
34
Northward and Eastward Propagating Components
June 6
35
Upstream Kelvin Wave Activity June 19
36
Downstream Propagation -gt ITCZ TC Activity
June 29
37
Gulf Surge Monsoon Activity July 11
38
YOTC Progress Plans

• Research Modeling Framework
• A number of modeling team connections have been
  established and enthusiasm is significant CMMAP
  and Tao/GMAO Superparameterization, Japanese
  NICAM effort, UK Cascade Project, DOE/ARM CAPT
  Transpose AMIP work, several CRM efforts, etc.
  Significant work remains in this aspect of
  implementation, including integration with
  GEWEX/GCSS, CLIVAR, WGNE, AMY, Pan-Monsoon,
  THORPEX, etc, and parameterization improvement
  plans.
• Coordination with Field Campaign
• e.g. AMY, VOCALS, T-PARC Expected leading up to
  and at IP Workshop.
• Implementation Plan and Workshop
• Implementation Plan being Drafted.
  Implementation Planning Workshop, Honolulu, July
  13-15, 09. About 50 invited so far, 30
  accepted, 5 declined, 15 maybe/waiting.
  Implementation Plan deliverable shortly after
  workshop.
• Project Support
• With WCRP WWRP help/request USTEC now provides
  1/2 FTE support for a specialist to help with
  Information and Communication Specialist/Support.
  (NSFNASANOAA).