Work

1
(No Transcript)
2
Fiscal Impact Modeling The TexSAFE Experience

• Garen Evans
• Community Resource Development
• Mississippi State University

3
(No Transcript)
4
TexAFE

• Decision-making
• What if scenarios
• Community Education
• Linkages in a local economy
• Policy Analysis

5
Review of Impact Models

• Input-Output Analysis
• Wassily Leontief
• Computable General Equilibrium
• Kraybill et al. 1992
• Econometric
• Adams et al. 1975
• Simulation
• Law and Kelton 1982

6
Input-Output Analysis

• Wassily Leontief
• b. 1906
• Nobel Prize, 1973
• for the development of the input output method
  and for its application to important economic
  problems.

• x (I-A)-1 y

7
Input-Output Analysis

• Advantages
• Inexpensive ease of use
• Disadvantages
• Theoretical CRS, fixed inputs, elasticities
• Practical lacks fiscal component, easily abused.

8
Integrated Modeling

• The theoretical motivation for integrating
  econometric models with input-output models stems
  from the restrictive assumptions of either
  component when used by itself.
• (Rey 2000)
• Strategies
• embedding, linking, coupling

9
TexAFE The Idea

• Identify Direct Impacts
• Estimate secondary impacts with input-output
  analysis.
• Use total I-O impacts with TexAFE.
• Estimate fiscal changes.

10
Secondary data (254 counties cross-sectional)
New jobs and earnings
TEXAFE
IMPLAN Input-output model
Regression equations
Impacts output value-added earnings
jobs
Coefficients
Spreadsheet
Baseline, project, and impacts
11
TexAFE Whats Inside

• Spreadsheet Model
• Easy to use and maintain
• Multiple spreadsheets
• Base model data
• Local data
• Statistical estimators
• Modular results

12
TexAFE Data

• Demographic
• Population
• Total, school-aged, elderly
• Commuting
• Economic
• Jobs, earnings, income, unemployment
• Fiscal
• County revenues, expenditures
• Rates city, school district, special district

13
TexAFE Estimators

• NETCMT f(jobs, unemp)
• POPf(jobs, netcmt)
• CLFf(pop,hisp)
• SACf(pop,hisp)
• INCOMEf(pop,earn)

• RETAILf(income)
• PROPVf(income)
• HOTREVf(income)
• MIXBf(income)
• CA_REVXf(pop)
• CA_IGEDf(pop)
• CA_DEXPf(pop)

14
(No Transcript)
15
TexAFE Calibration
16
(No Transcript)
17
(No Transcript)
18
TexAFE Output

• Demographics
• Property Revenues
• Sales Revenues
• Other Revenues
• Expenditures
• Accounts

19
(No Transcript)
20
(No Transcript)
21
(No Transcript)
22
(No Transcript)
23
TexAFE Wind Turbines

• 82.5 megawatts on 3200 acres
• 180 million

24
TexAFE Wind Turbines

• Pecos Wind Farm
• Property Taxes
• Buena Vista Iraan ISDs 22.8 million (25pv)
• County Taxes
• 8.2 million without tax abatement
• 2.4 million with tax abatement
• Present Value of 10 year tax abatement
• 5,794,276

25
TexAFE Cheese

• 97.5 million
• 1 cheese plant
• 24 dairy farms

26
TexAFE Cheese

• The county property tax base increases by 109.5
  million.
• The net fiscal impact for all jurisdictions in
  the county is 1.275 million annually (nominal
  dollars).
• The net present value of the fiscal impact over
  20 years for all jurisdictions is 17.12 million
  (real dollars).

27
TexAFE Space Transport

• First commercial spaceport in Texas.
• Fiscal impacts
• Promo/enabling
• Economic impacts
• Ascender Project

28
Distribution of Sales Tax Revenues
29
Where to Start?

• Shields, M.. 1998. An Integrated Economic Impact
  and Simulation Model for Wisconsin Counties.
  Ph.D. Dissertation. University of Wisconsin.
  Madison.
• Swallow, B., and T. Johnson. 1987. A Fiscal
  Impact Model for Virginia Counties. Review of
  Regional Studies 17(1)67-74.
• Swenson, D., and D. Otto. 2000. The Iowa
  Economic/Fiscal Impact Modeling System. Journal
  of Regional Analysis and Policy 2864-75.
• Community Policy Analysis Network
• http//rupri.org