COCHISE COLLEGE Center for Economic Research

1
COCHISE COLLEGECenter for Economic Research

• Economic Review Outlook
• Bisbee, AZ

2
United States

• Real GDP Growth
• 3.9 in 2004
• 3.2 in 2005
• 3.3 (annual) growth in first 9 months of 2006
• 1st Qtr 5.6
• 2nd Qtr 2.6
• 3rd Qtr 1.6

3
United States

• Consumer Price Index
• 2004 Up 2.7
• 2005 Up 3.4
• Jan-Oct 2006 Up 2.4 (SAAR)
• Energy prices down 1.5 in Jan-Oct 2006 (SAAR)
• Follows 17.1 increase in 2005

4
Interest Rates

• Federal Funds Rate
• Increased 25 basis points each meeting from June
  2004 to June 2006
• Currently 5.25
• Mortgage Rates
• 2003 5.83
• 2004 5.84
• 2005 5.87
• Jan-Oct 2006 6.6
• Oct 2006 6.6

5
How the National Economy Impacts Bisbee

• Fiscal Policy
• Monetary Policy

6
Arizonas Economy

• Gross State Product
• Up 9.1 in 2005
• Up 5.2 (Avg. Annual) between 1997 and 2004
• Fastest-growing state (economically) in the
  nation in 2005
• Fastest-growing state (economically) in the
  nation between 1997 and 2004

7
(No Transcript)
8
The Local Economy
9
Population

• Bisbee
• 2005 Population 6,570
• Down 0.2 from 2004
• Up 7.9 since 2000
• Average 1.5 per year since 2000
• Cochise County
• 2005 Population 131,790
• Up 1.7 from 2004
• Up 11.9 since 2000
• Average 2.3 per year since 2000

10
Population Projections

• In 2015
• Bisbee 7,370 (Avg. 1.1 per year)
• Cochise County 161,458 (Avg. 2 per year)

11
Bisbee Age Groups, 2006
12
Employment
13
Unemployment Rate

• 2005
• U.S. 5.1
• Arizona 4.7
• Cochise County 4.9
• Bisbee 5.4
• Jan-Oct 2006
• U.S. 4.7
• Arizona 4.4
• Cochise County 4.8
• Bisbee 5.1

14
Bisbee Employment, 2005

• Civilian Labor Force 3,215
• New Jobs 90
• Job Growth 3.1
• Top Employers (FTE Employment) in 2006
• Cochise County (678)
• Copper Queen Community Hospital (168)
• Bisbee Unified School District (133)
• City of Bisbee (100)
• Catholic Community Services (79)

15
Bisbee Occupations, 2000
16
Bisbee Jobs by Industry, 2000
17
Cochise County Non-Farm Employment

• 2005
• 37,050 jobs
• 1,900 new jobs
• Annual job growth 5.4
• Goods Producing 7.5
• Private Service-providing 4.8
• Government 5.9

• October 2006
• 38,850 jobs
• 800 new jobs
• 12-month job growth 2.1
• Goods Producing 2.0
• Private Service-providing 2.5
• Government 1.4

18
Cochise County Job Creation/Growth, October
2005-2006

• Job Creation
• Agriculture 450
• Trade, transportation utilities 375
• Professional business services 375
• Government 175
• Education and health services 100
• Mining construction 50
• Leisure hospitality 25
• Manufacturing 25
• Financial activities -25
• Information -50
• Other services -250

• Job Growth
• Professional business services 8.3
• Trade, transportation utilities 5.8
• Agriculture 2.9
• Manufacturing 2.9
• Education and health services 2.5
• Mining construction 1.7
• Government 1.4
• Leisure hospitality 0.6
• Financial activities -2.5
• Information -11.1
• Other services -21.3

19
Average Annual Wage Comparisons, 2005
20
Average Hourly Wage Comparisons, 2005
21
Bisbee Employment Forecast

• Labor Force
• 3,309 in 2006
• 3,369 in 2007
• 3,346 in 2008
• Job Growth
• 2.7 in 2006
• 2.7 in 2007
• 2.7 in 2008
• Unemployment rate
• 5.1 in 2006
• 4.6 in 2007
• 4.6 in 2008

22
Local Sales
23
Bisbee Total Taxable Sales

• 2005
• 67.1 million
• Up 24.1 from 2004
• Real, inflation-adjusted growth of 20.7
• 5.3 of total county sales up from 4.6 in 2004
• Jan-Aug 2006
• 41.9 million
• Down 6.3 from same period in 2005
• Real, inflation-adjusted growth of -10.2
• Primary Contributors to Decline Construction and
  Accommodation

24
Bisbee Taxable Sales by Category
25
Bisbee Retail Sales

• 2005
• 29.4 million
• Up 7.8 from 2004
• Real, inflation-adjusted growth of 4.4
• 4 of county retail sales up from 3.9 in 2004
• Jan-Aug 2006
• 20 million
• Up 3.9 from same period in 2005
• Real, inflation-adjusted growth of 0

26
Bisbee Restaurant Bar

• 2005
• 5.9 million
• Up 16.9 from 2004
• Real, inflation-adjusted growth of 13.5
• 6.1 of county restaurant bar sales up from
  5.6 in 2004
• Jan-Aug 2006
• 5 million
• Up 25.5 from same period in 2005
• Real, inflation-adjusted growth of 21.6

27
Bisbee Accommodation Sales

• 2005
• 3.1 million
• Up 2.6 from 2004
• Real, inflation-adjusted growth of -0.8
• 11.3 of county accommodation sales down from
  13.2 in 2004
• Jan-Aug 2006
• 1.3 million
• Down 40.6 from same period in 2005
• Real, inflation-adjusted growth of -44.5

28
Bisbee Sales Forecast, 2006-2008

• Average Annual Growth
• Total Taxable Sales Up 1.5
• Retail Sales Up 3.2
• Restaurant and Bar Sales Up 9.6
• Accommodation Sales -5.7

29
Housing Real Estate
30
Cochise County New SFR Construction

• Leveling off in 2005 slowest rate of increase
  in several years
• 16.1 decline from Jan-Oct 06 (825 vs. 958)
• Average permit value
• 2005 123,796 (Up 17)
• Jan-Oct 2006 144,560 (Up 16.8)
• Values do not include land price

31
(No Transcript)
32
Bisbee New SFR Construction

• No. of permits
• 2005 10
• Jan-Aug 2006 4
• Average permit value
• 2005 72,046
• Jan-Aug 2006 74,080
• Values do not include land

33
SFR Permit Value Comparisons, 2006
34
Bisbee Area Home Closings
35
Outlook

• Slowing of growth in homes sales
• Stabilization of prices
• Continued shift from sellers to buyers market

36
Happy Holidays!
37
(No Transcript)