Does History repeat itself

1
Does History repeat itself?
2
Israel Updates series 9/13/2006
Does History repeat itself?
Analyzing the consequences of the Lebanon Crisis
in the light of Yom Kippur War
Presented by Shlomo Weinish, Community Shaliach
3
On the morning of July 12th, under heavy fire
and bombing of the whole northern border,
Hezbollah Terrorists attacked 2 Hammer
jeeps- killing 3 soldiers and 2 others
were abducted. Shortly after, an Israeli Tank
went into the Lebanese territory and was caught
in a roadside charge trap which killed all 4
crow members. Another soldier was killed on the
rescue attempts.
4
At noon of October 6th, 1973 the Egyptian
Syrian Armies started a coordinated attack on
Israel.
5
Both events came as a surprise, But
A month before the attack (73), movement of
Egyptian Syrian forces towards the Israeli
Border was observed by Israeli look-outs. But,
according to Israeli Army intelligence's
evaluation, the possibility of an attack was very
low since both armies were not prepared to cope
with the Israeli Army.
The last abduction attempt of an Israeli soldier
by Hezbollah occurred last November. Under a
heavy bombing of northern Israel, Hezbollah
terrorists tried to abduct a paratrooper's
soldier near the village Ragar. This event was
not the first abduction attempt. The previous
attempt took place on October 2000, when 3
soldiers were abducted.
6
Timing
The evaluation was wrong and was established on
the exaggerated and overestimated strength of
the Israeli Army based on the Six Days War- 6
years before.
The abduction took place 6 years after the
Israeli armys withdrawal from Lebanon
7
Reliance on wrong strategic concept
1973 The Bar-Lev Line
The Hezbollahs posts line
8
Lack of Army experience
Ehud Olmert
Golda Meir (1973)
9
Chief of staff, Dan Chalutz, appointed his
deputy, Moshe Kaplinski, as his representative
in the north commend over Major General, Udi
Adam.
Army overruling
During the Yom Kippur War, Chaim Bar-Lev, ex
chief of staff, was sent to southern front to
take over commend from Shmuel Gorodish.
10
Political social consequences
After the Yom Kippur War, Captain (reserve) Motti
Ashkenzi led the protest movement that made The
government to establish the Agranat Committee
that its conclusions led to the government
reassignment.
11
These days
Grass roots protest movement demanding an
official investigation Committee and even the
resignation of the government.
12
Thanks for listening