Australian Bankers Association

1
Australian Bankers Association

• 16 October 2003

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Overview
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Contributions to GDP Growth (Year average)
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Composition of GDP Growth (Through the year)
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GDP Growth
World GDP Growth
Major Trading Partner GDP Growth
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Risks to the Outlook

• Budget (May 2003)
• Domestic
• Drought
• Dwelling investment
• Household balance sheets
• International
• Energy prices
• SARS
• Financial markets
• Deflation
• Geopolitical uncertainty
• Over reliance on US
• US current account deficit

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Cash Rates and the Dwelling Cycle
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Household Debt
Household Debt-to-Income
International Comparisons
Household Debt-to-Assets
Interest Payments-to-Income
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Trade Weighted Index
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Evolution of Consensus Forecasts
United States
Japan
Euro Area
Non-Japan East Asia
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G7 Policy Stimulus
G7 Fiscal Balance (1990-2004)
G7 Official Interest Rates
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Developments in Global Markets
Exchange Rates
Equity Markets
Bond Markets (10 yr)
World Oil Prices
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Risks to the Outlook

• Budget (May 2003)
• Domestic
• Drought
• Dwelling investment
• Household balance sheets
• International
• Energy prices
• SARS
• Financial markets
• Deflation
• Geopolitical uncertainty
• Over reliance on US
• US current account deficit

• October 2003
• Domestic
• Drought
• Dwelling investment
• Household balance sheets
• Exchange rate
• International
• Energy prices
• SARS
• Financial markets
• US deflation
• Geopolitical uncertainty
• Over reliance on US
• US current account deficit

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Australian Bankers Association

• 16 October 2003