Waste Cost Forecasting

1
Waste Cost Forecasting

• James H. Scott
• Abaxial Technology, Inc.
• May 2005

2
Why Forecast Waste Costs?

• Waste cost analysis is the cornerstone of cost
  forecasting and provides data regarding the true
  cost of waste
• Waste cost forecasting provides insight into
  future costs associated with generation, handling
  and disposal of waste
• Waste cost forecasting allows more realistic
  assessment of the institutional impact of waste
  generation

3
Waste Cost Analysis

• The methodology adopted for the LANL waste cost
  analysis is the EPA Full Cost Accounting (FCA)
  method
• Costs are for a point in time (FY04)
• Costs are on a per unit basis
• No back end costs
• Accrued by activity
• Income from recycling (if any)is included

4
Full Cost Accounting

• Accounting on an outlay basis
• Cost categories include
• Conventional Costs
• Regulatory Costs
• Legal Costs
• Overhead
• Use process flow to define activities

5
Waste Costs

• Conventional Costs Regulatory Costs
  Overhead
• Procurement Permitting GA costs
• Transportation Notification Health
  monitoring
• Waste handling Reporting Spill response
• Waste management Monitoring P2 training
• Storage WMC training Outreach
• Disposition Inspections/audits HazMat
• Site specific training Penalties/fines Eme
  rgency response
• Site studies Regulatory Management Legal
• Construction

6
Waste Streams

• Waste streams include
• TRU
• LLW
• MLLW
• Rad Liquid
• Chemical/Hazardous

7
Process Flow
8
Waste Volume Forecast
LANL produces an annual 5 year waste volume
forecast for several waste streams. LLW is shown
below.
9
Waste Cost Forecast

• Use the results of the waste cost analysis and
  the results of the waste volume forecast to
  produce a waste cost forecast based on FY04 waste
  cost
• Inflate waste costs in out-years by some suitable
  factor yet to be determined
• The maximum/minimum format will be used in the
  waste cost forecast.

10
Summary

• LANL will develop a waste stream specific waste
  cost analysis for FY04 using the EPA Full Cost
  Accounting methodology.
• This cost analysis, coupled with the waste volume
  forecast, will produce a waste cost forecast
• The waste cost forecast will be used to assess
  the true cost of waste generation at LANL and the
  institutional impact of waste generation.
• Completion expected this summer.