3. The Tshwane Regional Emme/2 Transport Demand Model

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3. The Tshwane Regional Emme/2 Transport Demand
Model
13 March 2003
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Emme/2 Regional Modelling-Outline-

• Available models
• Interim Emme/2 Model
• Base Year model results
• Land use data
• Trip generation
• Broader Road Network Planning
• Modelling results
• Conclusion and recommendations

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Emme/2 Regional Modelling-Available Models-

• Premet Emme/2 Model
• Study area GPMC area, part of Northwest
  Midrand
• 670 traffic zones
• Based on 1990/1 O-D survey
• Socio-economic data (population employment)
• 1996, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020
• Mainly Home-based-Work trips
• Educational trips only for Pta-East
• Status Last main Updated 1996/98
• Tshwane Recalibration Emme/2 model
• Study area Tshwane area, parts of NW, Midrand
  Tembisa
• Based on 1998/9 home interviews, CPTR
• Socio-economic date (population, employment and
  students) 2000 only
• Status Model needs to be verified

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Emme/2 Regional Modelling-Tshwane Interim Emme/2
model-

• Traffic zones and network
• As per Tshwane model
• Socio-economic data
• Base year 2000 as per Tshwane model
• Forecasts As per Premet model (2005-2020)
• Tshwane SEQ 2000/2001 Plan Associates report
• Education 2000 base year data
• Matrix development
• Trip generation - Combination of Premet Tshwane
  models as well as the latest external traffic
  counts
• Premet trip distribution and model split
  procedures
• Matrix adjustments (Centurion SEQ)
• 2001/2002 traffic counts
• 2001/2002 Land-use data
• Adjusted trip generation rates

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Emme/2 Regional Modelling-Centurion expected
Land-use data-
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Dominant Land Use 2020
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Expected Residential Densities - 2020
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Expected Non Residential Growth
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Expected Residential Growth
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Emme/2 Regional Modelling-Expected Trip
Generation-
Number of trips during the weekday peak hour
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Emme/2 Regional Modelling-Conclusion and
recommendations-

• Conclusion
• It is evident that the Interim Tshwane regional
  model can be used with sufficient confidence
• A major increase in land-use is expected in the
  study area
• Traffic generated within the study area will
  increase by more than 300 over the next 17 years
• Major road network improvements will be necessary
  to accommodate the additional traffic
• Recommendation
• Accept the results from the Interim model as
  basis for the sub-area traffic model
• Apply the sub-area matrices generated by the
  regional model in the sub-area model
• Apply the sub-area to develop a phased
  implementation plan