Earth Science and Applications From Space

1
Earth Science and Applications From Space

• A Community Assessment and Strategy for the Future

2
Statement of Task

• Review status in resolving major scientific
  questions
• Consensus on top-level scientific questions that
  should drive Earth and environmental observations
  for 2005-2015
• Examine opportunities to exploit these
  observations
• Recommend a prioritized list of measurements
  identify new space-based capabilities
• Identify important directions that should
  influence planning beyond 2015

3
Work Plan

• Survey or executive committee
• Interdisciplinary panels
• Panel on Climate Variability and Change
• Panel on Solid-Earth Hazards, Resources, and
  Dynamics
• Panel of Water Resources and the Global
  Hydrologic Cycle
• Panel on Weather
• Panel on Earth Science Applications and Societal
  Needs
• Panel on Land-use change, Ecosystem Dynamics and
  Biodiversity
• Panel on Human Health and Security

4
Guiding Principles

• Identify a compelling vision
• Connect to society
• Focus on research and operational uses of
  space-borne measurements
• Build on existing studies and programs
• Include science and applications in the context
  of Earth as a system
• Focus on a decadal planning horizon
• Place in a national context NASA, NOAA, other
  federal agencies
• Seek community voice
• Consider costs associated with prioritization

5
Theme Elements for Climate

• Climate forcing
• Climate feedbacks
• Attribution of change
• Projection of future change decades to century
• Seasonal-to-interannual variability and change
• Ocean structure and dynamics
• Paleoclimate
• Climate data records
• Forecast testing and improvement
• Climate services

6
Study Products

• Spring 2005 assist Congress
• Spring 2006 final report
• Summary aimed at the public

7
Process

• Invited proposals
• More than 80 being considered by Climate
  Variability and Change Panel
• Independent Panel Deliberations
• Town Meetings

8
Reports that serve as a Model

• Follow mode of Astronomy Decadal Surveys
• Finite set of prioritized missions
• Challenge Earth Sciences new mode
• Challenge Earth Sciences breadth of disciplines
• Challenge Earth Sciences current assets are
  longer than typical decadal survey all are
  needed
• Challenge Earth Sciences monitoring, research
  and pre-operational status

9
Approach to Prioritization

• Satisfy two Community Objectives
• Explore the intellectually challenging scientific
  problems associated with understanding the Earth
  and all of its interacting components
• Apply this knowledge effectively to benefit
  society on time scales from hours to years

10
Approach to Prioritization

• Achieving a robust program- Part 1 Achieving
  Balance
• Programmatic Balance
• Community Balance
• Technology Balance
• Societal Benefits Balance
• Fundamental/Applied Balance
• Observations, Analysis, Modeling Balance

11
Approach to Prioritization

• Achieving a robust program- Part 2 Meeting Needs
• Meets Today's Needs
• Meets Future Needs
• Resource Commitment
• Life-Cycle Perspective

12
Evaluation Categories

• CATEGORY I Higher Science/Societal Value Higher
  Readiness
• CATEGORY II Higher Science/Societal Value
  Lower Readiness
• CATEGORY III Lower Science/Societal Value
  Higher Readiness
• CATEGORY IV Lower Science/Societal Value Lower
  Readiness

13
Panel Reports

• Vision Background Where area should be in
  2025 Goals and Objectives for next decade
  Science and Societal connections(1-3 pages)
• Background on needs/requirements (3-4 pages)
• Status of current understanding/strategic
  thinking
• Status of existing/planned products and needed
  improvements Implications for observations or
  end-to-end information system
• Prioritized observations/measurements/correlative
  needs/needed technology development (15 pg)
• Other special issues e.g. agency roles and
  institutional challenges, data management/distribu
  tion, transition research to operations,
  international considerations, education
  training, end user issues etc. (3-4 pgs)

14
Status for Climate Panel

• Current program reviews
• Draft for Vision driven by science and societal
  needs
• Characterization of the numerous proposals
  related to climate

15
Some Emerging Thoughts

• In terms of science drivers, in 10 15 years
  global change/ variability will be evident if
  modern scientists are correct research will
  change.
• Improved prediction
• Finer scales multiple stresses coupled systems
• Place-based focus
• Expanded family of forecasting products
• Decision support products
• Establishing long term record
• New fundamental measurements
• Room for innovation

16
Final Notes

• Astronomy model for the Earth Sciences?
• Prioritization Challenge is critical
• I am better off listening to you than you are to
  me