Modeling of Caps on Flexible Mechanisms the Position of the EU

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Modeling of Caps on Flexible Mechanisms - the
Position of the EU

• Ger Klaassen
• IAEA Workshop The Clean Development Mechanism and
  Nuclear Power, 7-8 Oct. 1999 Vienna

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The EU-Position

• Further elaboration for principles, rules and
  modalities for the Kyoto mechanisms
• Which shall include a concrete ceiling on their
  use
• Priority to elaboration for CDM
• Comprehensive, strong, efficient and effective
  compliance mechanism

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Concrete Ceiling for all 3 mechanisms

• On acquisitions the highest of
• a) 5 of (base year assigned amount)/2
• b) 50 (emission in any year from 1994-2002 -
  assigned amount)
• On net transfers
• 5 of (base year assigned amount)/2
• However, can be increased if verifiable domestic
  reductions are higher

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Example for the EU
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Example for the FSU (Russia, Ukraine, Baltic)
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Acquisitions (Mton C)
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Acquisitions (Mton C) cont.
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What are the Costs?
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Conclusions

• EU ceiling on acquisitions and transfers could
  restrict trade volumes significantly (down from
  17 to 6 billion /year)
• This affects CDM (200 million ton carbon/year
  4.8 billion less)
• EU cap might costs around 12 billion /year