Global Conflict And Security

1
Global Conflict And Security

• Dr. Rupayan Gupta
• Department of Economics, Environmental and Global
  Studies
• California State University Bakersfield
• October 25, 2006

2
Global Interdependences Conflict

• During the past 50 years global interdependencies
  have increased tremendously
• These interdependencies are driven by
• Technological advances (for example, in the IT
  communications sectors)
• Increase in the volume and scale of economic
  activities
• Resource scarcity
• International migration
• Greater interdependencies have created the
  potential for greater conflict as well

3
The Nature of Global Conflict

• Economic Conflict
• Conflict over resources
• Conflict over trade
• Conflict over externalities

4
The Nature of Global Conflict

• Non-Economic Conflict
• Ideological conflict
• Religious Conflict
• Conflict over spheres of political influence

5
Types of Global Conflict

• Violent Conflict
• Full-scale wars
• Low-intensity armed conflict
• Violent revolts, separatist and independence
  movements
• Terrorism

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Types of Global Conflict

• Non-violent conflict
• Non-violent economic conflict
• (trade wars, patent disputes, etc.)
• Environmental disputes and disputes over
  resources
• Non-violent protests
  (political
  in nature or against the policies of any
  government)
• Non-violent independence and separatist movements

7
Instruments for Resolving Conflicts

• Force of arms
• - Offensive
• - Defensive
• International sanctions
• Bargaining negotiations
• Disengagement
• Change in preferences developing new technology
• Self-preferences
• Others preferences
• Investment in new technology

8
Some Important Concerns

• Policymakers face some important issues and
  problems when they make decisions on how to deal
  with conflicts
• The cost-benefit calculus
• International Cooperation The problem of
  collective action
• How to negotiate?

9
The Cost-Benefit Calculus

• Policymakers usually have to decide
• What is the best way to resolve a conflict the
  country may find itself in?
• Should the country try to resolve the conflict on
  its own, or should it form an alliance with other
  nations?
• Faced with a choice, should the nation join one
  of the sides in an ongoing conflict ?
• In order to answer these questions, they must
  know
• What are the involved costs and benefits?

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Costs

• Human costs
• - To ones own nation
• - To other nations involved in the conflict
• Financial material costs
• - Costs to ones own generation
• - Intergenerational costs
• Costs to various sectors of the economy
• - Cost to sectors in the economy when
  resources are transferred from those sectors to
  the combat sector
• - Loss of output of various industries,
  financial sector losses, loss in trade
• The nature of these costs depend to a large
  extent on the specific type of conflict that is
  going on

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Costs

• Political costs
• - Internal
• - External
• Negotiation costs
• These costs accrue when one enters into an
  alliance and has to negotiate with ones allies
• These are the costs of negotiation with
  adversaries

The first three types of costs usually go down if
you are able to form an alliance with other
nations However, negotiation costs might go up
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How are wars financed?

• Usually wars are funded through
• New taxes
• Reversing tax cuts
• Borrowing (national international)
• Lowering government spending on certain sectors
  of the economy
• Deficit financing

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Benefits

• Gain in national or global security
• Economic benefits
• (more resources, trade, protection of economic
  activities, market confidence, and economic
  stability)
• Environmental and ecological benefits
• Ideological benefits
• Political and strategic benefits

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Benefits

• Sometimes, joining an alliance may lead to
  certain benefits
• Cost sharing
• Specialization in tasks
• Joint participation can lead to better overall
  results
• (Economies of scale)
• The desired objective may not be achieved without
  international cooperation
• - Non-substitutable skills
• - Weakest-link theory

15
The Cost-Benefit Calculus

• A clear understanding of the costs and benefits
  facilitates the decision of how to best handle a
  conflict
• What is the best instrument to handle a conflict?
• Is unilateralism or multilateralism the best
  policy?

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The Problem of Global Cooperation

• Collective action by members of the global
  community is often required in many situations
• Intervention in conflict situations
• (Kosovo, Bosnia, Afghanistan)
• Cooperation in the arena of global security
• Post-conflict reconstruction
• (Somalia, Ghana, Lebanon)
• Solution of resource conflicts
• Solution of conflicts arising out of the presence
  of externalities

17
Game Theory and Conflict Studies

• Mathematician John Von Neumann (1903-53) used
  game theory to model military strategy during the
  Cold War, as part of his work for the RAND
  Corporation
• Thomas Schelling and Robert Aumann got the Nobel
  prize in 2005 for their use of game theory in
  analyzing conflicts
• We will use game theory to study the issue of
  international cooperation

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The Free-Rider Problem

• This problem is associated with the provision of
  an international public good
• US and France have to simultaneously decide
  whether to contribute to a UN peace-keeping
  mission

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The Externalities Problem

• This problem is associated with global conflict
  involving externalities
• This is a slight variant of the problem of
  providing international public goods

20
The Externalities Problem

• US and Japan have to simultaneously decide
  whether to cut back on greenhouse gases

21
Solutions to the problem

• Building strong international institutions
• Repeated interaction
• (building a history and future possibilities of
  cooperation)
• Interacting on multiple fronts

22
Conflict and Negotiations

• Insights from Bargaining Games
• Who makes the first offer in the negotiation
  process determines the outcome to a certain
  extent
• (setting the tone of negotiations has some
  effect on the outcome so arriving late at the
  bargaining table may not be a good idea)
• Patience is a crucially important factor in
  securing good deals in negotiations
• Even a slightly more impatient player might end
  up with a deal that is comparably much worse
• (sometimes political exigencies at the national
  level lead to impatience in diplomatic
  negotiations)

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Conclusion

• A lot of detailed information is needed to
  perform a cost-benefit calculus and choose the
  best method to resolve conflict
• It is important to invest in the proper gathering
  of this information and be sure that the gathered
  information is correct.
• Otherwise the cost-benefit calculus will yield
  incorrect results, which may adversely affect
  crucial decisions

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Conclusion

• International cooperation is inherently difficult
• Creative solutions may be needed to achieve such
  cooperation in order to enhance global security
• Persistent dialogue might be needed to strike
  advantageous deals and resolve conflict
  situations