TRENDS AND CHALLENGES IN SUBSAHARAN AFRICAN CITIES

1
TRENDS AND CHALLENGES IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN
CITIES

• OCTOBER 2003

2
MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS

• Target 11
• By 2020, to have achieved a significant
  improvement in the lives of at least 100 million
  slum dwellers
•  
• Progress will be monitored through...
• Indicators 30 and 31
•  
• (30) Proportion of people with access to improved
  sanitation
• (31) Proportion of people with access to secure
  tenure
•  
• United Nations General Assembly (A/56/326)
• 6 September, 2001

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AN URBANIZING WORLD

• Over the next 2 decades, more than 88 of
  population growth in developing countries will be
  urban
• By 2025, 78 of the worlds urban population will
  be in developing countries
• Increased urbanization is increasing the
  importance of cities and is driving
  decentralization.

4
CITIES ARE GROWING

• By 2015, there will be 23 mega cities with
  populations in excess of 10 million. Of these,
  19 will be in developing countries.
• By 2020, Africa will have 11 cities having more
  than 5 million inhabitants and more than 3000
  cities with populations in excess of 20 000 (an
  increase of almost 300 from 1990)

Cities Over 1 Million
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HOW BIG IS AFRICAN URBANISATION IN GLOBAL TERMS?
6

AFRICAN URBANISATION

• Africas urban population only constitutes 7 of
  the world urban population.
• Today, urban areas account for 34 of the total
  population
• Sub-Saharan Africas urban population will
  approach 440 million, or 46 of its projected
  total of 952 million by 2020.
• The average rate of urbanization in Africa is the
  highest in the world at 3.97 p.a.

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PATTERNS OF URBANISATION

• Urban population growth rates are not distributed
  evenly
• Highest growth rates found in Eastern Africa and
  West Africa
• Lowest growth rates are found in Southern Africa
• Structure of urbanization differs
• West Africa - few secondary cities, populations
  tend to concentrate in one or a few large cities
  
• East Africa - population growth more evenly
  distributed between secondary and tertiary cities
  
• African megacities
• By 2015 Lagos will have a population in excess of
  10 million inhabitants
• 70 African cities will have populations of more
  than 1 million people.

8
City Strategic Framework Building blocks for
integrated development
Inclusive City
Productive City
City Strategy (CDS)
Well- governed City
Sustainable City
9
Productive African Cities

10
AFRICAN URBAN ECONOMIES

• Structural change in African economies
• Urban economic activities in Africa constitute a
  growing share in GDP.
• Urban areas already accounts for 60 of the
  regions GDP.
• City product in African cities is generally
  higher than the national product.
• Key Challenges
• African cities and the global economy?
• Optimizing city productivity
• Understanding urban-rural linkages

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AFRICAN CITIES AND EMPLOYMENT

• Unemployment in African cities is the highest in
  the world, averaging around 24.
• Up to 54 of all employment is in the informal
  sector.
• Challenges
• Formality and informality
• Skilling for change

12
Inclusive African Cities

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THE URBANISATION OF POVERTY

• National and local authorities are not prepared
  for the unprecedented growth of cities and this
  creates an upsurge in urban poverty
• The cities of Africa have the highest rates of
  urban poverty in all regions, over 40 and
  rising.
• This poverty manifests itself in a number of ways
  including
• The establishment and growth of informal
  settlements
• Financial exclusion

14
INFORMAL SETTLEMENTS IN AFRICA

• Connection levels for all services in Africa are
  lower than in all other world regions
• Approximately 40 of residential accommodation in
  Africa is non-permanent, over 148 million people
  live in urban slums
• House price-to-income ratios
• The highest in the world at 12.5
• Double that of cities in highly industrialized
  countries
• Challenges
• Supply meets demand?
• Funding the backlog
• Land management and allocation systems
• Building Partnerships

15
CITIES AND FINANCIAL EXCLUSION

• Access to credit is severely constrained.
• The mortgage-to-credit ratio
• measures the size of the formal housing finance
  sector and its ability to provide households with
  funds
• Africa has a ratio of 8.4.
• Challenges
• Housing finance institutions are poorly developed
• Housing institutions face legal or institutional
  constraints which impede lending, particularly
  tenure.

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Sustainable African Cities

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AFRICAN CITIES AND HEALTH

• Poor infrastructure within urban areas gives rise
  to health problems within cities
• Cities become a source of disease and child
  mortality rises rather than falls

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AFRICAN CITIES AND THE ENVIRONMENT

• Brown issues
• Waste disposal systems
• Sanitation
• Green issues
• Urban greening
• Urban agriculture
• Challenges
• Reducing the urban footprint sprawl and impact
• Balancing competing agendas

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Well Governed African Cities

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GOVERNANCE

• Demographic change and the importance of cities
• Decentralization
• Political decentralization (Power, authority,
  demarcation)
• Financial decentralization (un-funded mandates)
• Administrative decentralization (effectiveness,
  efficiency, responsiveness)
• Challenges
• Transparency and accountability
• Addressing corruption
• Enforcing compliance
• Citizenry and community participation

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CONCLUSIONS

• Irrevocable shifts taking place
• Urbanization of Africa will create political and
  social challenges
• Present a critical opportunity for change
• Working together
• African solutions for Africans NEPAD focus
• Sharing lessons between cities
• Donor responsiveness to urban challenges
• The African voice on urban issues