IR3001 week 11

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IR3001 week 11

• Security in the Middle East

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Images of the Middle East

• The most conflictual region in the world?
• On a collision course with the West?
• History of conflict (Lewis)
• Clash of Civilisations (Huntington)
• Political Economy confers exceptional status?
• Geostrategic needs vs. imperialism
• Resource Wars (Klare) - internal (water) and
  externally prompted (Oil)
• Is there a green threat of global proportions?
• Can the Arab-Israeli conflict ever be resolved?

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Post-1945 Conflicts

• Arab-Israeli conflicts (1948, 1956, 1967,
  1969-1971, 1973, 1982)
• Israeli-Palestinian Conflicts the Intifada
  (1987-1991), al-Aqsa Intifada (2000-)
• Three Gulf WarsIran-Iraq (1980-1988), Iraq
  invades Kuwait, but is expelled (1990-1991),
  US-led invasion of Iraq
• Afghan Tragedy 10 years of resistance to Soviet
  occupation (1979-1989), followed by civil war
  among warlords, and post-9/11 US led invasion
• Conflict over status of Yemen, civil war in
  Algeria (1992-1998), water skirmishes b/w Turkey
  and its neighbours, Kurdish uprisings

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Analytical Trends

• Unsatisfactory conflict resolution means repeated
  conflicts in the same area - legacy, restitution,
  instability
• Focus on Israel as common aggressor frames
  cooperation, but conflict among Arab/Islamic
  states and civil wars also take place
• The relationship with Israel has regional
  significance, but it is only one of many issues
• External dimension
• weak on UN enforcement (e.g.Resolution 242)
• heavy on great power interventionism - French,
  British, Soviet and US direct or indirect
  involvement

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Arms Proliferation

• Proliferation a function of statehood no army
  no independence
• a question of prestige and regional competition
• Weak regional institutions, little transparency,
  creates spirals of insecurity? Some arms control
  initiatives.
• Weapons of Mass Destruction
• Chemical weapons used by Saddam Hussein on
  Iranian troops, and Kurdish insurgents
• Only Israel has nuclear weapons - a key foreign
  policy goal is to keep its regional monopoly
• Iraqs WMD programme was halted in 1990s
• Iran has considered development of nuclear
  capacity since the days of the Shah (prestige and
  power projection)
• Key suppliers UK, France, Soviets, US

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Security Cooperation

• Alliances Arab states against Israel (1947-1979)
• Cold War Baghdad Pact/CENTO is a weak instrument
  of soviet containment (1955-1979)
• Some of the leaders of Non-alignment (flexible
  alliances with superpowers)
• the Arab League (1945 - ) discussion of all
  aspects of regional cooperation (excludes Iran,
  Turkeyand Israel)
• Islamic Conference Organization (1971-) is more
  inclusive, but weaker on security
• Euro-med partnership (1995-) includes EU, Israel,
  Malta, Cyprus and Palestinian Authority

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Assessing Security Cooperation

• Reluctance to be a zone of influence
• Postcolonial legacy
• Weak level of institutionalisation? Growing but
  not binding
• Trend from alliances to collective security?
• Change of dynamics at the end of the Cold War
• Weaker patronage, pressure to resolve
  Israeli-Palestinian conflict from the US
• Ambiguities
• More transparency and cooperation - but states
  compete for regional dominance
• Funding of Islamist groups in other states in the
  region Post-9/11 distancing

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Political Economy of Conflict?

• Energy supply recognised as the national interest
  in the US
• MENA is a geostrategic region
• Strong alliances with undemocratic Saudi Arabia,
  Iran (until 1979) and Iraq (until 1990)
• Selby Occupied Territories hold water reserves
  Israel needs
• Oil Power OPEC hikes prices up after 1973 Yom
  Kippur War, and 1979 Iranian Revolution
• can a cartel stand up to superpowers because of
  its resources?

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Internal SecurityIdentity clash or
representation crisis?

• Nationalism is key to independence and
  state-building
• Dominance of Pan Arabism hides ethnic and
  religious diversity
• Populist developmental dreams betrayed by growing
  authoritarianism
• Pressures to democratise in the 1990s lead to
  cosmetic results
• Non recognition of ethnic minorities (Turkey)
• Rise of Islamism as main opposition to regimes
• Internal stability often maintained through mixed
  strategies of cooptation, compromise and force

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Defining Islamist Politics

• Islamism is not Islam a minority opinion
• Islamism is a set of political and social
  movements aiming to bring Islam back into
  politics and society.
• Bids for power Iran, Sudan, Algeria, Turkey
• Has populist roots emphasis on lack of
  corruption, authentic values, empowerment and
  resistance to foreign meddling
• The new bogeyman of International Relations?
• Green Threat arguments began in early 1990s
• Only took root in Western political consciousness
  after 9/11
• But groups are varied in goals and tactics

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Roots of a Regional Movement

• Choueiri resistance movements in the name of
  Islam are cyclical in history
• Response to times of economic and political
  crisis
• Modern Islamism born in Egypt in 1920s Hasan
  al-Bannas Muslim Brotherhood
• Setting up a Muslim state free from imperialist
  meddling
• Purification of society through Muslim values
• Creation of groups elsewhere to recreate a
  powerful community
• Methods education, infiltration of power
  channels, assassination of political leaders
• 1960s Sayyid Qutb - obligation to overthrow
  governments living in ignorance, radical
  interpretation of Jihad
• From 1970s economic and political crisis of
  postcolonial development projects means varied
  groups mushroom throughout the Middle East
• 1990s pressures for democratisation mean new
  opportunities

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Structures

• Islamism is a loose set of movements
• informal connections e.g. former Afghani
  resistance fighters spreading through the MENA
• connections between al-Ikwan groups
• sponsorship links
• No unified regional network
• Violent Groups organised as independent cells,
  creating new cells, etcNo unified leadership
• Non-violent groups organised as social movements
  marketing, education, social welfare
• Some groups have charity and violent wings
• Some popular support, but Islamism represents
  neither a unified religious viewpoint.
• Can it be fought like a state?

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Fighting the War on Terror through
Democratisation?

• What makes democratisation meaningful?
• If forced, will it seen as an alien tool of
  exploitation?
• Is it bound with liberal economics, and who
  profits from it?
• Fighting for it in Iraq, but not in Saudi Arabia
• Are we prepared for the outcome? (majority in
  Iraq is Shiia, Islamists win elections)
• BUT meaningful democratisation could mainstream
  Islamism and thus neutralise its violent elements

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From Palestine Mandate to Israel

• Mixed population (mostly Arab Palestinian) under
  the control of the Ottoman Empire (Turkish) until
  WWI
• British encourage Arab rebellion against Ottomans
  
• Post-WWI betrayal of the British who deny
  promise of independence and gain mandate to rule
  Palestine
• Sykes-Picot Agreement colonial creation of
  boundaries
• Zionism becomes influential under British
  mandate mass migration is encouraged, but divide
  and rule policy with Arabs is tool of control
• Continued clashes finally to complete reversal in
  British policy in 1940
• This happens at the very time a safe asylum is
  most needed - will contribute to scale of
  holocaust
• Holocaust estimated 6 Million Jewish victims
• Gave Zionism international support in the
  aftermath of WWII and a new impetus for a safe
  homeland

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Independence and the 1848 War

• Use of violent tactics (1946-47) to force Britain
  out
• International mediation fails and issue goes to
  the UN
• Partition plan for Palestine is rejected in 1948
  under Arab pressure
• Jewish Council pushes for creation of Jewish
  state when British mandates runs out (15 May
  1948).
• 8 hours before mandate runs out Ben Gurion
  declares the creation of the state of Israel
• Arab neighbours (Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Jordan and
  Egypt) attack on the 15th to prevent a fait
  accompli
• Ambiguous Arab attitudes towards Palestine
• Surrounded and outnumbered, Israel resists
  invasion
• 600,000 Palestinians become refugees
• Agreed boundaries create recognised Israeli
  territory
• Israel gains UN membership in May 1949

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The Six Day War - 5-11th June 1967

• Tensions with Arab neighbours are mounting
• Egyptian, Jordanian and Syrian troops mass at
  borders
• Israeli pre-emptive strike destroys Egyptian air
  force
• After Six days, territory controlled by Israel
  has almost doubled - new land known as Occupied
  Territories
• Interpreted as humiliation by the Arab World
• UN resolution 242 condemns land acquisition
  through war by Israel (with little effect - has
  never been enforced by SC)
• Another 500,000 Palestinians displaced
• Sinai returned to Egypt in 1979 through peace
  deal, other Territories remain under Israeli
  control
• Camp David Accords (1978) Sinai for peace and
  recognition
• The price Egypt is isolated, Sadat assassinated
  in 1981.

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The 1973 Yom Kippur War

• Egypt and Syria launch offensive
• to regain territories lost and annihilate Israel
• Palestinian autonomy for regional pride
• Israel wins again, but not as confidently as
  1967
• Israel keeps control of the OTs, but casualties
  are high, and the UN still refuses recognition
• Israeli dependence on the USA becomes obvious.
• OPEC oil embargo demonstrates Arab power
• Palestinians become a political force
• Palestinian violence with PLO and Abu Nidal (e.g.
  1972 Olympic Games)
• Rise of right-wing Likud party in Israel and more
  systematic approach to colonisation of the OTs

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The Lebanese War 1982-2000

• Violence in Israel by PLO incursions from South
  Lebanon Israeli army believes that a short war
  to wipe out PLO can be decisive and invades
• Operation Peace in Galilee (6 June 1982)
  successfully expels PLO (goes to Tunisia),
• but Israel does not withdraw (officially for
  security reasons)
• South Lebanese Muslim resistance becomes
  organised to expel Israel (Hezbollah)
• War helps descent into civil war in 1980s.
• Atrocities Israeli complicit in massacres of
  Palestinian refugees in Sabra and Shatila
• Palestinian resistance grows in OTs from 1987,
  the Intifada demonstrations attract a worldwide
  audience and sympathy

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The Peace Process

• land for peace formula, i.e. a 2-state solution
• US brokers early negotiations, but Israel does
  not recognise PLO and refuses to deal with a
  Palestinian delegation
• Madrid Summit (1991) creates a foundation for
  discussion and secret negotiations sponsored by
  Norway
• Election of Rabin (Labour) in 1992 leads to
  recognition of Palestinians as a people, and
  fosters talks
• 1993 Oslo Accords lay the foundations for peace
  peace for and recognition of Israel in exchange
  for partial withdrawal from OTs and Palestinian
  autonomy.
• Many problems remain Israel makes less
  compromises than the Palestinians, issue of right
  of return for refugees
• Rabin assassinated by Jewish extremist in Nov
  1995 process starts to unravel thereafter
• Arafat can return to OTs and set up the
  Palestinian Authority
• Under Netanyahu, peace process will be
  effectively reversed

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Current Issues

• February 2000 election of controversial A. Sharon
  leads a more violent approach to issue of
  Palestinians
• Leads to a second Intifada (sparked by Temple
  Mound visit by Sharon)
• Hamas and Islamic Jihad adopt terrorist tactics
• Israeli forces go for invasion and extra-legal
  killings
• Sept 11th gave Sharon the opportunity to justify
  his position
• Building of the Security Wall officially, to
  keep terrorists out, in reality mostly about
  securing some the OTs as Israeli territory for
  any future negotiations
• All initiatives for a settlement have failed.

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Conclusions

• Focus of conflict has moved from Arab-Israeli
  (external) to Israeli-Palestinian (internal)
• The price of war agenda on both sides is
  controlled by extremists while most people want a
  settlement
• Israel has been unable to really secure peace,
  territory security
• Palestinians are still refugees, or occupied, or
  with only partial rights (Arab citizens of
  Israel)
• The price of peace
• Different visions of Israeli society could lead
  to internal problems once peace is secured
  relies on a war economy supported by the US for
  its standard of living
• Palestinian state is likely to be small, without
  key resources, poor and ruled by the PA which has
  shown itself to be corrupt and authoritarian