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1
IR3001 International Security

• Security Challenges
• in the Middle East

2
Introduction

• Part 1
• Trends in Conflict, Proliferation and Security
  co-operation
• Political Economy of Conflict
• Islamist opposition
• The War on Terror
• Part 2
• Focus The Palestinian Question

3
Images of the Middle East

• The most conflictual region in the world?
• On a collision course with the West?
• History of conflict (Lewis)
• Clash of Civilisations (Huntington)
• Political Economy confers exceptional status?
• Geostrategic needs vs. imperialism
• Resource Wars (Klare) internal (water) and
  externally prompted (oil)
• Is there a (global) Green Peril?
• Can the Arab-Israeli conflict be resolved?

4
Post-1945 Conflicts

• Arab-Israeli conflicts
• 1948, 1956, 1967, 1969-1971, 1973, 1982, 2006
• Israeli-Palestinian Conflicts
• Intifada (1987-1991), al-Aqsa Intifada (2000-)
• Three Gulf Wars
• Iran-Iraq (1980-1988), Iraq-Kuwait (1990-1991),
  US-led invasion of Iraq (2003-)
• Afghan Tragedy
• 10y resistance against Soviet occupation
  (1979-1989), followed by civil war (warlords)
  post-9/11 US-led invasion
• Conflict over status of Yemen, civil war in
  Algeria (1992-1998), water skirmishes b/w Turkey
  and its neighbours ( in Israel/Palestine),
  Kurdish uprisings

5
Analytical Trends

• External dimension
• weak on intl law enforcement (e.g. UNSC Res 198,
  242, 338)
• heavy on intervention direct or indirect
  involvement by France, UK, USSR and US
• Internal dimensions
• Focus on Israel as common aggressor frames
  co-operation, but conflict among Arab/Islamic
  states civil wars also occur
• Relations with Israel have regional significance,
  but it is only one of many issues
• Unsatisfactory conflict resolution ? repeated
  conflicts in the same area legacy, restitution,
  instability

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Arms Proliferation

• Proliferation
• function of statehood no army no independence
  
• Postcoloniality armed forces for internal
  security
• Question of prestige and regional competition
• Weak regional institutions, little transparency,
  creates spirals of insecurity? Some arms control
  initiatives.
• Weapons of Mass Destruction
• Chemical weapons used by Saddam on Iranian troops
  Kurdis (US blocks UNSC Res.)
• Only Israel has (undeclared) nuclear weapons a
  key foreign policy goal is to keep its regional
  monopoly
• Iraqs WMD programme halted in 1990s
• Iran considered development of nuclear capacity
  since the days of the Shah (prestige and power
  projection)
• Egypt Jordan now also exploring nuclear
  programme
• Key suppliers UK, France, Russia, USA

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Security Cooperation Alliances

• Arab states against Israel (1947, 1973)
• Cold War Baghdad Pact/CENTO is a weak instrument
  of Soviet containment (1955-1979)
• Non-aligned Movement (flexible alliances with
  Superpowers) (E.g. Nsasers Egypt)
• Arab League (1945-)
• discussion of all aspects of regional
  co-operation
• excludes Iran, Turkeyand Israel
• Arab Unification projects (e.g. UAR, 1958-1961)
• Organization of the Islamic Conference (1971-)
• more inclusive, but weaker on security
• Gulf Co-operation Council security and economic
• Euro-Med Partnership / ENP (1995-)
• framework for bilateral relations e.g. EU,
  Israel, Malta, Cyprus PA

8
Assessing Security Cooperation

• Reluctance to be a zone of influence
• Postcolonial legacy
• Weak level of institutionalisation?
• Growing but not binding
• Focus on collective security?
• Change of dynamics at the end of the Cold War
• Weaker patronage, pressure to resolve
  Israeli-Palestinian conflict from the US
  (short-lived)
• Ambiguities
• More transparency and co-operation, but states
  compete for regional dominance
• Funding of Islamist groups in other states in the
  region Post-9/11 distancing

9
Political Economy of Conflict

• Energy supply recognised as US national interest
• MENA is a geostrategic region
• Strong alliances with undemocratic Saudi Arabia,
  Iran (until 1979) and Iraq (until 1990)
• Oil Power
• OPEC hikes prices up after October War (1973),
  and Iranian Revolution (1979)
• can a cartel stand up to superpowers because of
  its resources?
• Water
• Occupied Territories hold water reserves Israel
  needs (Selby)

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Internal SecurityIdentity clash or
representation crisis?

• Nationalism was historically key to independence
  and state-building
• Dominance of Pan-Arabism hides ethno-religious
  diversity
• Populist developmental dreams betrayed by
• Economic failures
• growing Authoritarianism
• Authoritarianism, Democracy and Radicalisation
• Non-recognition of ethnic minorities (Turkey)
• Rise of Islamism as main opposition to regimes
• Pressures to democratise in the 1990s lead to
  cosmetic results (façade/pseudo-democracy)
• Internal stability often maintained through mixed
  strategies of co-optation, compromise and
  repression

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Islamist Politics

• Islamism is not Islam
• Islamism range of political social movements
  aiming to bring Islam back
• Armed/revolutionary groups are v. small minority
• Bids for power Iran, Sudan, Algeria, Turkey
• Populist roots
• emphasis on lack of corruption, authentic values,
  empowerment and resistance to foreign
  interference
• The New Bogeyman of Global Politics?
• Green Peril arguments began in early 1990s,
  ultimately in 1979
• Only took root in West after 9/11
• But groups are varied in goals and tacticsNo
  unified regional network
• Can Islamism be fought with traditional security
  tools?

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Islamism(s) Roots of Regional Movements

• Choueiri
• resistance movements in name of Islam are
  cyclical in history
• Response to times of economic and political
  crisis
• Modern Islamism born in Egypt in 1920s Hassan
  al-Bannas Muslim Brotherhood (Ikhwan
  al-Muslimun)
• Setting up a Muslim state free from imperialist
  meddling
• Purification of society through Muslim values
• Creation of groups elsewhere to recreate a
  powerful community
• Methods education, infiltration of power
  channels, assassination of political leaders
  (later)
• 1960s Repression under Nasser ? Sayyid Qutb
• obligation to overthrow governments living in
  ignorance,
• radical interpretation of jihad
• From 1970s
• economic/political crisis of postcolonial devt
  projects ? varied groups mushroom across Middle
  East
• 1990s pressures for democratisation mean new
  opportunities

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9/11 and the War on Terror

• Increase in globalisation of radical Islamist
  activity
• Greater focus on international events Bosnia,
  Chechnya
• Training and ideological gateway in Afghanistan
• Greater focus on US as enemy Israel, Iran,
  troops in Saudi Arabia
• Attacks on US assets in Middle East (USS Cole,
  embassy bombings) first attempt on the World
  Trade Centre (1993).
• 9/11 reflects Islamist terrorisms focus on
  high-profile, high-casualty attacks
• US response is confrontation, but agenda becomes
  coupled with confronting rogue states Axis of
  Evil unrelated to 9/11
• Successful dismantling economic networks,
  increased information-sharing
• Undermining civil liberties at home and abroad
  Patriot Act, Guantanamo Bay, rendition flights,
  Abu Ghraib torture scandal
• Both wars in Afghanistan and Iraq are won easily
  militarily, but poor record on post-conflict
  reconstruction
• Can democratisation be imposed? Prepared for
  outcomes (Islamists often win elections)? can
  authoritarian regimes elsewhere still be
  supported?

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From Palestine Mandate to Israel

• Mixed population (mostly Arab Palestinian) under
  the control of the Ottoman Empire (Turkish) until
  WWI
• British encourage Arab rebellion against Ottomans
  
• Post-WWI betrayal of the British who deny
  promise of independence and gain mandate to rule
  Palestine
• McMahon-Husayn (1915-16) promises to Faysal
• Sykes-Picot Agreement (1916) colonial creation
  of boundaries
• Balfour Declaration (1917) promises to Zionists
• Zionism becomes influential under British mandate
  - mass migration is encouraged, but divide and
  rule policy with Arabs is tool of control
• Continued clashes lead to complete reversal in
  British policy in 1940
• This happens at the very time a safe asylum is
  most needed - estimated 6 Million Jewish victims
  in Holocaust
• Gave Zionism international support in the
  aftermath of WWII and a new impetus for a safe
  homeland

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Independence and the 1948 War

• Use of violent tactics (1946-47) to force Britain
  out
• International mediation fails and issue goes to
  the UN
• Partition plan for Palestine is rejected in 1948
  under Arab pressure
• Jewish Council pushes for creation of Jewish
  state when British Mandates runs out (15 May
  1948).
• 8 hours before mandate runs out Ben Gurion
  declares the creation of the State of Israel
• Arab neighbours (Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Jordan and
  Egypt) attack on the 15th to prevent a fait
  accompli
• Ambiguous Arab attitudes towards Palestine
• Surrounded and outnumbered, Israel resists
  invasion
• 600,000 Palestinians become refugees
• Israel gains UN membership in May 1949
• Agreed boundaries create recognised Israeli
  territory

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The Six Day War 5-11th June 1967

• Tensions with Arab neighbours are mounting
• Egyptian, Jordanian and Syrian troops mass at
  borders
• Israeli pre-emptive strike destroys Egyptian air
  force
• After six days, territory controlled by Israel
  has almost doubled new land known as Occupied
  Territories
• Interpreted as humiliation by the Arab World
  (Naksah)
• UN SC Res. 242 condemns land acquisition through
  war (with little effect never enforced
  ambiguity)
• Another 500,000 Palestinians displaced
• Sinai returned to Egypt in 1979 through peace
  deal, other Territories remain under Israeli
  control
• Camp David Accords (1978)
• Sinai for peace and recognition
• The price
• Egypt is isolated, Sadat assassinated in 1981PLO
  radicalised

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The 1970s

• Egypt and Syria launch offensive in 1973 (October
  / Ramadan / Yom Kippur War)
• Israel wins again, but not as confidently as
  1967
• Crossing of the ubur
• casualties are high, UN still refuses recognition
• Highlights Israeli dependence on US support
• OPEC oil embargo demonstrates Arab power
• Palestinians become a political force
• Palestinian violence with PLO and Abu Nidal (e.g.
  1972 Olympic Games)
• Rise of right-wing Likud party in Israel and more
  systematic approach to colonisation of the OTs

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The Lebanese Wars 1982-2000, 2006

• Violence in Israel by PLO incursions from S.
  Lebanon IDF believes short war can wipe out PLO
  ?invades
• Operation Peace in Galilee (6 June 1982)
  successfully expels PLO (goes to Tunisia),
• but Israel does not withdraw
• South Lebanese Muslim resistance becomes
  organised to expel Israel (Hezbollah)
• War helps descent into civil war in 1980s
• Atrocities Israeli complicit in massacres of
  Palestinian refugees in Sabra and Shatila
• Withdrawal in 2000, but as Hezbollah launches
  rocket attacks, Israel decides (again) that a
  short war can be decisive in securing its border
  in 2006
• End result of the short war is indecisive
  militarily, but serious blow to Israeli
  (military) reputation

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The Peace Process

• Palestinian resistance grows in OTs from 1987,
  the Intifada demonstrations attract a worldwide
  audience and sympathy
• Negotiations
• PLO Tunis Declarations implicitly recognise
  Israel renounce violence
• US brokers early negotiations, but Israel does
  not recognise PLO and refuses to deal with a
  Palestinian delegation
• Madrid Summit (1991) creates a foundation for
  discussion and secret negotiations sponsored by
  Norway
• Election of Rabin (Labour) in 1992 leads to
  recognition of Palestinians as a people, and
  fosters talks
• 1993 Oslo Accords lay foundations for peace
• land for peace formula 2-state solution,
  partial autonomy with creation PA
• Many problems remain Israel makes less
  compromises than the Palestinians, issue of right
  of return for refugees, Jerusalem, etc.
• Arafat can return to OTs and set up the
  Palestinian Authority (PA)
• Rabin assassinated by Jewish extremist in Nov
  1995
• process starts to unravel (Netanyahu explicitly
  rejects reverses it)

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Current Issues

• February 2000 election controversy Sharon leads
  a more confrontational approach
• Second Intifada (sparked by Temple Mount visit by
  Sharon)
• Hamas and Islamic Jihad adopt terrorist tactics
  focused on civilian casualties
• IDF adopt military incursions extra-legal
  killings
• Security Wall officially, to keep terrorists
  out but also secures some OTs for final
  status negotiations (creating facts on the
  ground)
• Palestinians giving up on a peaceful solution by
  voting for Hamas to head the PA?
• Failure of accountability under Arafat
• Corruption and authoritarianism foster support of
  Islamism
• negotiations with Israel seem futile
• Little US pressure for resolution under Bush Jr

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Conclusions

• Regional security is complex
• Weak institutionalisation, rivalries for military
  power and influence
• Lack of mutually agreed resolution to conflicts
  fosters further conflict
• External involvement for economic and
  geostrategic reasons
• Islamism domestic, regional, international
  dimensions
• The question of OTs remains a major factor for
  opposition to Israel
• The region remains undemocratic, with gross
  economic inequalities, ethnic and religious
  divisions, and a growing sense of siege