Predicting Technology

1
Predicting Technology

• Miklos A. Vasarhelyi
• Professor, Rutgers University
• Technology Consultant, Intelligent Financial
  Systems Group, ATT Laboratories

2
A What in Every home?

• "While every telegram consists in itself of a
  written record of what is being communicated,
  Bell's instrument uses nothing but the voice,
  which cannot be captured in concrete form, and
  therefore would be no record of what was said or
  agreed upon. We leave it to you to judge whether
  any sensible man would transact his affairs by
  such a means of communication."
• "Bell expects that the subscribers to this
  service will pay to have the instruments
  installed in their premises and will thereby pay
  for each call made, with a monthly minimum if no
  calls are made. We feel that it is unlikely that
  any substantial number of people will agree to
  such an arrangement in view of the telegraph
  offices which are now giving efficient round-
  the-clock service in every neighborhood and the
  smallest towns with charge only the actual
  messages according to length."

3
A What in Every home? (II)

• "In conclusion the committee feels that it must
  advise against any investment whatever in Bell's
  scheme. We do not doubt that it will find a few
  users in special circumstances such as between
  the bridge of a ship and the engine rooms, but
  any development of the kind and scale which Bell
  so fondly imagines is utterly out of the
  question."
• This magnificent example of managerial judgment
  was the forecast of a Western Union Committee
  report at about the turn of the century (courtesy
  of the Newsletter of the Council of Northern
  Electric Engineers.)

4
ATT 1969 Annual report

• In 1969, ATT announced in its Annual Report
  that "Picturephone service may be a billion
  dollar business by 1980.

5
Thomas Edison (customer survey)

• If they asked a user what they want in relation
  to candles they would have said longer burning,
  smokeless, candles . never the light bulb
• user are not very good champions of revolutionary
  change

6
Facts

• "It is estimated that half of the world
  population never made a phone call.
• About 50 of the US population has Internet
  access
• About 0.3 of the population of China has
  Internet access
• Iceland, Finland, and Sweden have larger Internet
  usage per capita than the US

7
Invention and Use

• Marconi invented radio in 1894
• Broadcasting started in 1920
• First advertising in 1922 toll broadcasting
• Technology is developed typically for a
  particular purpose
• ensuing uses far outweigh the original intent

8
Invention and Use (2)

• Internet is about 26 year old
• Information appliances are going to appear in
  droves
• Great time to be a Branded Services provider
• Great time to take advantage of IP Common Platform

9
Invention and business

• The technology facilitates / creates things
• the business model creates a real use
• different business models may create different
  types of products
• technology and business model are different
  things and both require creativity
• a bad business model or an immature technology
  can doom a good idea

10
Predicting technology

• the diffusion of telephony
• fax
• instant photography
• other predictions?
• video-telepresence
• video-phones
• Internet telephony
• satellite telephony

11
Some technologies transformeverything

• Weapons war
• Electric light
• Calculator Slide rule
• Color TV
• Internet
• bitable goods
• commodities
• secondary use???

12
Modern World

• Railroads
• Telephone
• Internal Combustion Engine
• Electric Power
• Radio, Television Movies
• Jet Travel
• Plastics
• Micro-electronics

13
Conclusions

• Large organizations resist and inhibit innovation
• User are not very good champions of revolutionary
  change
• Ensuing uses far outweigh the original intent
• Technology and business model are different
  things and both require creativity
• a bad business model or an immature technology
  can doom a good idea