Roger Liddle

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Europes Social Reality

• Frédéric Lerais
• Bureau of European Policy Advisers

Brussels, 8 May 2007
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What does the report do?

• 1. Discussion paper on Europes Social Reality
  to stimulate debate
• Citizens agenda (10th May Communication)
• Not a Commission policy statement or official
  consultation paper
• Consultation runs for the rest of the year 2007
• No hidden agenda on the part of the Commission
• No presumption of bigger role for Brussels
• 2. Analyse social well-being across EU27
• Beyond Growth and Jobs the social condition of
  Europeans
• Various studies on well-being
• OECD, WB
• Analysis of the factors behind
• Jobs, family, health, etc.
• Do MS, for all their diversity, face common
  challenges?

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Happiness indicators
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Anticipated life for future generations
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1. Trends 1.1 5 Important trends

• Social changes are driven by
• Globalisation but also by numerous internal
  factors
• Rapid transformation to a knowledge and service
  economy
• Development of Welfare State new opportunities
  new dependencies
• Demographics, Gender equality, and changing
  family
• Mass affluence and the individualization of
  values.

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1. TrendsGlobalisation is driving social change
in Europe

• Some loss of low skilled jobs subject to new
  international competition
• Some delocalization but not as much as people
  think and often
• Some outsourcing
• Increased migratory pressures
• Intense pressure on energy and natural resources
  need to tackle climate change.

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2.Towards a knowledge and service economy Fast
shifts in occupational structure

• In EU15 2/3 of all jobs in services (EU15) 40
  work in 'knowledge sectors'
• Between 2000 and 2004 1.7m fewer industrial
  jobs 1.1m fewer agricultural jobs 8m more
  service jobs.
• 50 of jobs demand high cognitive and/or personal
  skills
• Two thirds of new jobs are skilled
• Bleak prospects for unskilled unemployment rate
  three times higher than for graduates.
• 1 in 3 of the EU workforce is unskilled
• 1 in 6 still leaving school without skills
• Educational performance, particularly attainment
  of intermediate skills, in decline in some MS
• Problems for low skilled losing jobs in mid-life.

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3. Welfare state Impacts

• Outcomes
• Better health services and pensions plus the
  abolition of absolute poverty increasing life
  expectancy.
• Dramatic European achievement in terms of life
  expectancy 43.5 (1900) 75.5 (2000), 82 (2050)
• But, rise in dependency
• among 55-64 year olds over 40 of men and 60 of
  women have dropped out of the labour market
• Persistence of relative poverty
• 1 in 6 over 65s 12 million of 72 million
  pensioners at risk of poverty.
• 1 in 5 children 18 million of the EUs 94
  million children
• Single parent families 4.4 of all EU
  households
• Jobless households, 60 at risk of poverty
• and rising in several MS

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Pessimism about of welfare systems
'For each of the following please tell me whether
you think it applies to the (NATIONALITY) social
welfare system? Our social welfare system '
Answers 'It applies to' EU 25
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4. Demographic changes 4.1 Declining fertility
and ageing

• A fertility well below sustainable levels (2,69
  (60s) to 1,5)
• Biggest recent falls in fertility in southern
  Europe and new Member States
• Fertility rates higher in MS with better
  childcare, easier maternity and paternity leave
  and greater availability of part time work
• Women with jobs now more likely to have children
• Supporting the 'dual earner' couple now the prime
  task of family policy
• Some consequences
• Age related expenditures rise by 2.5 of GDP by
  2030 and 4.3 by 2050
• 28 of over 70s currently live alone 40 of over
  80s
• Up to two thirds of over 75 dependent on informal
  care
• Extended families weakening care for elderly at
  same time as to stay at work longer
• Yet (mainly) women carers under pressure.

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4. Demographic changes 4.2 Migration can be
source of new labour supply

• Profound impact
• Birmingham or Marseilles made up of more than 1/3
  of minorities
• 'Non-native Dutch population' forecast to be 14
  of total population by 2020 but 50 population
  of Amsterdam and Rotterdam
• This diversity enriches Europe migrant
  contribution to diet, sport, social welfare and
  public services
• Big problems of social integration remain.
• Discrimination, especially in labour market
• Poor educational attainment
• Problems of perception
• 60 of Europeans believe there are limits to how
  many people of minorities, other religions or
  cultures a society can accept ( 25 reject
  multiculturalism)
• Strong economy and Social Model is no guarantee
  of integration (Denmark)
• Debate and dialogue on common obligations of
  citizenship.

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The question of immigration
'For each of the following statements, please
tell me whether you tend to agree or tend to
disagree.'
Answers 'Tend to agree' EU 25
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5. Mass affluence and individualization

• Material needs increasingly satisfied
• New consumer demands for leisure, fitness,
  tourism, style
• New occupations driving Europe's transformation
  to a knowledge and service economy
• Information empowerment demand for more
  personalized and consumer accountable public as
  well as private services
• Growth of self-health
• Increasing consciousness of risk
• Changes in value
• Increasing secularization/ decline of religious
  belief
• Decline in social capital/ civic engagement/
  trust in politics
• Greater personal freedom tolerance of diverse
  sexuality and lifestyles.
• Changes in family composition

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To sum up

• All in All, Europeans should be optimistic about
  the EU's ability to prosper in a Global Age
• Critical common challenges
• Education and skills in the knowledge economy
  in some Member States educational performance in
  decline
• Generational inequity due to demographic change.
• Europe needs more migrants but considerable
  problems of social integration in many Member
  States
• Risks of social polarization increasing poverty
  and inequality declining social mobility high
  level of child poverty.

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Web-site

• For more information,
• to read the full BEPA report
• to follow the public consultation
• visit
• http//ec.europa.eu/citizens_agenda/social_reality
  _stocktaking/index_en.htm