Supply Curves

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Supply Curves

• September 23, 2008

Ryan Pletka Black Veatch
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Agenda

• Review of CSAs vs REZs
• ZITA inputs to modeling
• Supply Curves

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Zone Identification Process
All RenewableResources
Preliminary ScreeningCriteria
CandidateStudyAreas
REZ Identification
Environ- mental and Other Land Exclusions
Non-REZ Resources
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Nevada
California
Hypothetical, for example only
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Nevada
California
Hypothetical, for example only
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Nevada
California
Hypothetical, for example only
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Nevada
California
Hypothetical, for example only
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Nevada
California
Hypothetical, for example only
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Nevada
California
Hypothetical, for example only
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Zone Identification Process
All RenewableResources
Preliminary ScreeningCriteria
CandidateStudyAreas
REZ Identification
Environ- mental and Other Land Exclusions
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ZITA Information Needed for Modeling

• REZ Information
• REZ definition and a list of all resources
  included in the REZ
• Precise location of transmission interconnection
  point for the REZ
• Central collector point for all resources within
  the REZ
• Centroid or other point

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ZITA Information Needed for Modeling

• Resource Information for Each Resource in Each
  Zone
• Resource type and technology
• Block size (e.g. 500 MW of wind generation
  capacity)
• Performance Information
• Capacity Factor (annual)
• Temporal Profile (12x24 or more precise ... to
  evaluate complementary-ness).

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ZITA Information Needed for Modeling

• Resource Information for Each Resource in Each
  Zone (Contd)
• Cost Assumption
• Capital Costs -- /kW (inclusive of construction
  financing and interconnection to collector point)
• Operations and Maintenance (Fixed - /kW/yr
  Variable (/MWh)
• Fuel (if applicable)
• Financial Assumptions
• Economic life, financing structure, taxes,
• Incentives and depreciation

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Properly Characterizing Resource Cost

• Renewables costs vary tremendously based on
  resource quality
• Limited number of very good renewable project
  sites
• Costs rise as low-hanging projects are
  developed
• Supply curves capture these effects

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Supply Curve Concept Example
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Supply Curves are a Visualization Tool

• Type of Renewables
• Locations
• Timeframes
• Economic Metrics
• Busbar Generation Cost
• Energy / Capacity Value
• Transmission Cost

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Example Geothermal Supply Curve
Source RETI DRAFT 1B Report Generation Cost
Only
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Example Biomass Supply Curve
Source RETI DRAFT 1B Report Generation Cost
Only
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Example Wind Supply Curve
Source RETI DRAFT 1B Report Generation Cost
Only
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Example Solar Supply Curve
Source RETI DRAFT 1B Report Generation Cost
Only
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Example Arizona Supply Curve (Demand Limited)
Note 2025 assumptions exclude current tax
incentives
Generation cost only no TOD energy or capacity
value