Progress in the scenario building process of Project 3'2

1
Progress in the scenario building process of
Project 3.2
2
Stakeholders of the scenario writing process

• -

3
Information flows in the scenario writing process
4

• Brainstorming workshop
• Brussels, June 22-23

5
Scenario typology

• Baseline scenario
• Prospective scenarios
• Prospective policy scenarios
• Roll backward scenarios (desirable and
  undesirable)

6
1. Baseline scenario
Main driving forces - ageing of population in
Europe, especially in certain areas - increasing
role of transnational private actors -
concentration of financial services in a few
world cities - accelerating rate of diffusion of
innovations challenge to whole of society by the
knowledge revolution - increasing duality
between rich and poor (social polarisation) -
possible trading of environment for development,
in particular in core East-European areas.
7
2. Prospective scenarios and prospective policy
scenarios
a) Prospective scenarios
8
(No Transcript)
9
(No Transcript)
10
(No Transcript)
11
b) Prospective policy scenarios
12
(No Transcript)
13
3. Roll-backward scenarios
a) Desirable roll-backward scenarios
14
(No Transcript)
15
b) Undesirable roll-backward scenarios
16
MASST MODEL (Macroeconomic, Sectoral, Social and
Territorial)
17
State of the art in the MASST model
MASST is an econometric model estimating the
determinants of local development. Local
development is divided between two components,
the national component and the local differential
shift component. The Masst model estimates both
of them. The structure of the model is
represented in the following chart
18
Conceptual underpinnings
19
(No Transcript)
20
Scenario Sketches
21
Baseline Scenario

• Two sketches with rather similar character
• long-term trend evolution of the European
  territory, focussing on aspects of the European
  periphery
• - EUROREG (Warsaw)
• - Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (Halle)

22
Prospective Thematic Scenarios

• Roll forward scenarios emphasising the long-term
  evolution in one specific field and its
  territorial impacts
• Two scenario sketches
• - Spatial impacts of climate change (IGEAT)
• - Europe in a context of high energy prices
  (Tersyn)

23
Prospective Policy Scenarios

• Prospective policy scenarios aim at highlighting
  the territorial impacts of changes in public
  policies
• Four scenario sketches combining two main policy
  variables (Dr. Illes and colleagues Budapest)
• - Cohesion and structural policies of the EU and
  national governments
• - Policies concerning the liberalisation and
  mobility of labour and capital

24
Roll backward Scenarios

• Starting from a final long-term image and
  investigating the processes and policies likely
  to lead to it.
• Two desirable scenarios sketches (NISR The Hague
  and National Technical University Athens)
  presenting a long-term image similar to the
  achievement of ESDP principles and assuming
  substantial changes in public policies
• One undesirable scenario sketch (NISR The Hague)
  presenting a chaotic final image reflecting
  inefficient and contradictory policies