Introduction and History

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Introduction and History

• Origin of the Report
• Distinguished International Panel
• Process for Report Development
• How This Report is Different

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The Scientific Expert Group

• Peter Raven, United States (Co-Chair)
• Rosina Bierbaum, United States (Co-Chair)
• Ulisses Confalonieri, Brazil
• Jacques Jack Dubois, United States
• Alexander Ginzburg, Russian Federation
• Peter H. Gleick, United States
• John P. Holdren, United States
• Zara Khatib, United Arab Emirates
• Janice Lough, Australia
• Michael MacCracken, United States
• Ajay Mathur, India
• Mario Molina, Mexico
• Richard H. Moss, UN Foundation, United States
• Keto Mshigeni, Tanzania
• Nebojsa Naki Nakicenovic, Austria
• Taikan Oki, Japan
• Hans Joachim John Schellnhuber, Germany
• Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, Hungary
• Jae (James) Edmond, special technical advisor,
  United States

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Overview A Sense of Urgency

• Climate issue at scientific/political turning
  point
• Global climate change accelerating caused
  mainly by humans
• Average temperature 0.8 C above pre-industrial
  value
• Increased incidence of extreme weather events
• Accelerating sea-level rise, reduction in summer
  sea ice
• Ecosystem boundaries moving
• Political recognition of changes urgency of
  situation
• Expect continuing increases at 0.2-0.4 per
  decade with potential abrupt changes in climatic
  patterns and major impacts on economic and social
  systems
• Climate change will make achievement of MDGs
  harder
• Pressure building for resolute international
  action

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Climate Change Early Warning Signs
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Potential Tipping Points
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Overview Key Findings

• Exceeding 2-2.5 C above 1750 levels would entail
  sharply increasing risk of intolerable impacts
• Avoiding this will require prompt action
• Two-pronged strategy avoid the unmanageable
  (mitigation) and manage the unavoidable
  (adaptation)
• Mitigation and adaptation measures should be
  integrated and reinforcing
• This report provides a roadmap for an accelerated
  global response to climate change.

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The Roadmap - Mitigation

• Avoiding the Unmanageable
• To avoid exceeding the 2-2.5 C limit will
  require stabilizing atmospheric concentrations at
  the equivalent of no more than 450-500 parts per
  million of CO2 (compared to about 380 ppm CO2
  equivalent today)
• That in turn requires global CO2 emissions to
  peak no later than 2015-2020 at not much above
  their current level and decline by 2100 to about
  a third of that value

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Emissions Scenarios
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The Roadmap - Mitigation

• Choose win-win solutions to avoid exceeding
  2-2.5 C and advance MDGs, including
• Shifting to non-fossil fuel supply options
• Designing and deploying only coal power-plants
  types that can be affordably retrofitted to
  capture and sequester CO2
• Increasing efficiency in transportation and
  commercial/residential buildings sector
• Expanding use of biofuels in transportation
• Promoting reforestation and afforestation
• Achieving a tripling to quadrupling of public and
  private investment in energy research,
  development and demonstration

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The Roadmap - Mitigation

• Set a new global policy framework
• Achieve international agreement on target of no
  more than 2-2.5C temperature increase
• Negotiate multi-decade emissions reductions
  needed to achieve agreed target
• Agree to measure and reduce national energy and
  emissions intensity
• Respect common but differentiated
  responsibilities
• Establish a price on carbon emissions in all
  countries
• Bolster mechanisms to pay for incremental costs
  of low-emitting technologies for low-income
  countries

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The Roadmap - Adaptation

• A World Vulnerable To Climate Change
• Most impacts are expected to be negative,
  especially for the poorest, most vulnerable
  nations
• Water resources, coastal infrastructure, health,
  agriculture, and ecosystems are expected to be
  challenged in virtually every region of the globe
• International, regional, and national
  institutions are ill-prepared to manage climate
  change impacts. Enhanced preparedness/response
  strategies are a global priority

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Climate Change Vulnerabilities
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The Roadmap - Adaptation

• Action Plan for Adaptation
• Initiate regional vulnerability assessments that
  identify challenges and immediate adaptation
  priorities advance the sectoral toolkits
• Develop technologies and disaster mitigation
  strategies to manage changes in water resources,
  coastal infrastructure, health, agriculture and
  environmental refugees
• Avoid new development on coastal land less than
  one meter above high tide
• Bolster the Adaptation Fund to help the most
  vulnerable countries adapt
• Improve the flow of information between
  individuals and groups to support collective
  action and decisionmaking on adaptation

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The Opportunity Addressing Climate Change and
Advancing Sustainable Development

• Responding to Climate Change Can and Must Advance
  the MDGs
• Clean and affordable energy supplies are
  essential for achievement of MDGs
• Decentralized, domestic energy sources (e.g.
  biofuels) can generate jobs and avoid balance of
  payments drain for oil imports
• Sustainable land-use policies are vital for
  agricultural and forestry
• Integrated mitigation-adaptation strategies can
  help drive investment and growth
• Create and rebuild cities to be climate
  resilient, reduce emissions, and manage natural
  resources
• Harness advanced building designs for maximum
  resource efficiency improved health
• Use captured carbon from power plants for
  enhanced oil recovery and crop growth
• Reduce health impacts and land degradation of
  residential fuelwood use by replacing it with
  modern energy supplies

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The UN Role

• Facilitate international negotiations on a new
  global framework for mitigation and adaptation
• Develop an international process to assess
  technologies and refine sectoral targets for
  mitigation, involving public private sectors.
  The Montreal Protocols Technology and Economic
  Assessment Panel provides an effective model
• Multilateral agencies work with governments to
  strengthen national capacity (CSD, WHO, FAO,
  UNHCR, MDBs)
• Create a UN system-wide plan for financing and
  deploying climate-friendly energy technologies
• Enlist educational capacity-building
  capabilities of UN institutions to provide
  information about climate change and
  opportunities for adaptation and mitigation
• Factor climate change in MDG Poverty Reduction
  Strategies

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Two Starkly Different Futures

• Societys current path leads to increasingly
  serious climate-change impacts, including
  potentially catastrophic changes that will
  compromise development objectives and threaten
  living standards
• The other path leads to a transformed energy
  system and improved stewardship of the worlds
  soils and forests to reduce emissions, create
  economic opportunity, reduce global poverty, and
  achieve sustainability
• Humanity must act collectively and urgently to
  change course through leadership at all levels of
  society -- There is no more time for delay