POS 203: 12142006

1
POS 203 12/14/2006

• Course status.
• Final exam guide discussed at end of class.
• Paper due today via e-mail before class.
• Top scoring papers I will sponsor for RU
  library award.
• Consider submitting as conference papers (e.g.
  ISA).
• Exam Review Evaluations 1145 gt 1215.
• Final Exam Tuesday December 19th, 1100-130pm.
• Grades posted on RU Access 12/28 (early evening).
• Grades available via e-mail 12/22 (late evening).
• Course Agenda
• Lecture/Discussion.
• Presentations.
• Extent and limits of empire.
• Global futures.

2

• Extra Credit Option Due via e-mail by
  12/20/2006.
• Write a 2-3 page essay applying concepts from
  reading or lecture to
• Analyzing a film or video released during this
  semester or clear with Prof. Erickson first.
• Participation in a political event
  (demonstration, observation, internship, etc.).
• Political biography (your own)
• Example. Prof. Ericksons political socialization
  1980-1986.
• C below 5 points applied to midterm score, 3
  points for second assignment.
• B 3 points for first assignment, 1 point for
  second.
• A 3 points for first assignment.
• Extended extra credit option Due via e-mail by
  12/24/2006 2pm.
• Movie The Good Shepard (film website/IMDB).
• Status of Iraq, Polonium-210 investigation, as of
  12/23/2006.
• Review coverage in major news outlets (web
  based).
• Predict near future direction of events (to 5
  years out).
• Use specific concepts from Landman, Hauss, Howe.
• 4-5 sources.
• Only essays on above subjects will be accepted on
  12/24.

3

• Mayan.
• Cioffi-Revilla, Claudio and Todd Landman. 1999.
  Evolution of Maya polities in the ancient
  Mesoamerican system. International Studies
  Quarterly Dec99, Vol. 43Issue 4.
• Test theories of rise and fall of Mayan polities.
• Six year study.
• 72 polities, over 900bc to 1697ad.
• Implications.
• Two periods of expansion and contraction.
• Political integration and competition problem
  before conquest.
• Larger-scale organization necessary for growth.
• Can this model of collapse be extended to empires
  with holdings in Latin America, and Latin
  American nation-states?

4

• Pre-Conquest/Colombia Polities Mayan Polities
  1.

5

• Pre-Conquest/Colombia Polities Mayan Polities
  2.

6

• Pre-Conquest/Colombia Polities Mayan Polities
  3.

7

• Pre-Conquest/Colombia Polities Mayan Polities
  4.

8

• Conquest Impact.

9

• Hauss.
• Interconnected global crises.
• Dangers.
• War and violence.
• Environmental degradation.
• Economic interdependence and fragility.
• Global poverty and inequality.
• Catastrophic natural and technological disasters.
• Opportunities.
• Hauss contrasts old and new modes of thinking.
• Global democratization.
• Globalization positive aspects.
• Technological development.
• Zero-sum versus positive sum.
• Howe.
• Quote p. 128-129.

10

• Global Futures 1 War, Terror/Counterterror and
  Human Rights.
• Polonium-210.
• Alexander V. Litvinenko (NYT).
• Accused FSB of false flag terror attacks as
  pretext for launching second Chechen War - 1999.
• Terror 99 Website (English/Russian).
• Co-author, with Yuri Felshtinsky, of
• Blowing-up Russsia. Second Edition Acts of
  terror, abductions and contract killings
  organized by the Federal Security Service of the
  Russian Federation.
• Russian Security Apparatus FSB, MVD, EMERCOM,
  Antiterror.ru roughly equivalent to US
  ready.gov.
• Russian Political Paranoia (NYT).
• Polonium-210.
• What is it? NYT.
• How to buy it. United Nuclear.
• Assembling weapon. - Very difficult United
  Nuclear.
• CNN Video Clip 12/04/2006.

11

• Homeland Security.
• 9/11 Public Discourse Project
• Follow-on to 9/11 Commission
• Report Card, Iraq War Justification.
• Interview with Keane and Hamilton.
• Discourse Project Website.
• Report Card released 12/05/2005.
• A year later
• No follow-up and grades have likely all gotten
  worse.
• Washington Post 12/01/2006 article on
  commissions, study groups, and lack of response.
• NBC News (12/04/2006) Is the FBI doing its
  best to combat terrorism? Highest-ranking
  Arab-American agent says no, sues for
  discrimination.

12

• Global War on Terrorism
• Militarism and Imperial Overstretch.
• Permanent superbases in Iraq?
• Newsweek. (05/01/2006) Stuck in the Hot Zone,
  Don't dream about full exits. The military is in
  Iraq for the long haul.
• DOD Domestic Surveillance.
• Rolling Stone (04/20/2006) The Pentagon's New
  Spies, The military has built a vast
  domestic-intelligence network to fight terrorism.
  
• NBC News (12/14/2005) Is the Pentagon spying on
  Americans?
• NBC News (11/22/2006) Dems want to see
  citizen-monitoring database - Pentagon has been
  keeping tabs on groups perceived as security
  threat
• Counterintelligence Field Activity.

13

• Selective Service.
• Draft? Selective Service What happens in a
  draft?
• Danger of breaking the sword of the republic
  (McCaffrey 10/2006).
• Iraq Study Group (ISG).
• Housed with the USIP.
• About ISG.
• Report released 12/06/2006.
• Report.
• Analysis and debate.
• Brookings Institute. An Analysis of the Iraq
  Study Group Report (held 12/07/2006).
• International News Coverage.
• Independent UK Apocalypse Now.
• Regional War?
• Saudis threaten to intervene if US leaves (WP,
  NYT1, 2).
• CNN clip from yesterday..

14
Islam Overview.

• Islam/Middle East and Central Asia
• Maps.
• Countries where Al Qaeda was/is active.
• Sunni/Shiite.
• Doctrinal difference stem from disagreement over
  succession to Muhammad, after death 632 AD.
• Merit or Bloodline.
• Majority decision merit, Abu Bakr (close
  associate of Muhammad) appointed first Caliph.
• Bloodline supporters for (cousin and son-in-law
  of Muhammad) Ali ibn Abi Talib.
• Shiite shiat Ali supporters of Ali.
• Violent interaction 656 - 680 AD, Ali and sons
  killed by Sunni faction.
• Shiite (Shiite, Shia, Shia) 10-15.

15
Islam - Global Pattern of Diffusion.
16
Middle East/Sunni/Shiite
17
Middle East/Sunni/Shiite
18
Ibrahim al-Jaafari
19
Iraq - Sunni/Shiite.
20
Ibrahim al-Jaafari
21
Ibrahim al-Jaafari
22
(No Transcript)
23
Operation Enduring Freedom (Afghanistan)

• CENTCOM. US Army.
• Enduring Freedom Operations.
• Global Security.
• Difficulties of combined counterterror/counterinsu
  rgency operations.
• Coalition casualties.
• Iraq Coalition Casualties Enduring Freedom
  section.
• Civilian casualties.
• Estimates.
• Marc Herold, Prof. University of New Hampshire.
• Project on Defense Alternatives.
• Cooperation with Pakistan security apparatus.
• Tribal Areas.
• Video1 Return of the Taliban PBS Frontline
  10/03/2006.
• Video2 In the Footsteps of Bin Laden (CNN Fall
  06)
• AQ assassination of Masud 9/11.

24
Afghanistan
25
Afghanistan
26

• Global Futures 1
• Global Environmental Crisis.
• Anthropogenic Ecocide.
• Human generated destruction of planets ability
  to sustain life.
• Example
• Report Arctic Climate Impact.
• What happens when India and PRC get larger middle
  class and an automobile culture.
• Video Clip CNN.
• Day After Tomorrow?
• Interruption of the North Atlantic
  thermocline/conveyor.

27

• Global Futures Population Projections.
• Source United Nations. 2004. World Population in
  2300.

28

• Global Futures 4 Resource Competition.
• Source Center for Strategic and International
  Studies 2004.

29

• Global Futures 5 National Intelligence Council
  2020.
• Report.
• International Futures Model.

30

• Global Futures Catastrophic Natural Events.
• Global warming and extreme weather events.
• Near Earth Objects (Asteroids/Comets).
• NASA Near Earth Objects.
• Video Clip Killer Asteroids.
• Asteroid 1950 DA.
• Catastrophic Natural Events and the possible
  perfection of the technical means of forecasting
  and prevention.

31
Evaluation

• Instructor Name Christian Erickson.
• Course Number P0S 203-01.
• Please take time to fill out both forms
• SIR II Form.
• SIR II Report Number 094589.
• Narrative evaluation forms.
• Good luck with finals!!!
• Have a great winter break!!!