Preparing for Future Crises: Research Lessons

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Preparing for Future Crises Research Lessons

• Arjen Boin, Ph.D.
• Louisiana State University

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Outline

• Introduction
• Peering into the future rise of transboundary
  crises
• Future challenges patterns and shifts
• Key lessons from crisis research
• The need for resilience

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Defining Transboundary Crises

• We speak of a transboundary crisis when the
  functioning of multiple, life-sustaining systems
  or critical infrastructures is acutely threatened
  and the causes of failure remain unclear.

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A Few Examples

• Kobe, Chernobyl, Canadian Ice Storms, Buenos
  Aires blackout, 9/11, SARS, Asian tsunami,
  Hurricane Katrina, China Earthquake (2008),
  Houston Blackout (Ike)
• Going on now Financial crisis, Mexican flu

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Characteristics of TC

• Transboundary crises
• Cross geographic and functional boundaries
• Causes are not clear
• No clear beginning or end
• Periods of rapid escalation
• Unpredictable trajectory
• No ownership

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Damage potential TC

• The damage potential of transboundary crises
• Indirect damage accumulates through crippling of
  CIs and increased duration

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Increased frequency Driving Trends

• Changing threat agents
• Increased societal vulnerability

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Increased societal vulnerability

• Growing complexities and interdepencies
• Changing societal and political climate
• Rising economic vulnerabilities
• Design failures (the unintended consequences of
  prevention-oriented strategies)

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Changing Threat Agents

• (Bio) Technology jumps
• New forms of terrorism
• Climate change
• Global shifts
• Demographics

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Paradoxes

• While public leaders can do less to prevent
  crises, they are increasingly held responsible.
• Trends increase vulnerability of modern
  societies, while increasing crisis management
  capacity.

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Transboundary Crises Coping Challenges

• We know that
• Prevention is hard if not impossible
• New forms of adversity are likely
• Failure is not an option (politically, socially
  and economically)
• Government is not geared towards dealing with
  transboundary crises

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Challenges for Crisis Leadership

• Preparing in the face of indifference
• Making sense of crisis developments
• Managing large response networks
• Meaning making Whats the story?
• Learning from failure, while being held
  accountable

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A. Preparing for Crisis

• The costs of permanent preparedness
• Planning vs flexibility
• The politics of preparedness

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B. Sense making why it is hard

• 1) Most organizations are not designed to spot
  impending crises
• 2)Social/political construction of threat
  perceptions
• 3)The impenetrable policy agenda (many issues
  have crisis potential)
• 4)Psychological factors (stress pathologies)

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C. Managing large response networks

• Making critical decisions
• Working with limited information
• The coordination challenge Who does what?
• Communicating to the public

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Meaning making Offering answers

• Whats the story? Reducing public and political
  uncertainty
• Bush after 9/11, Bush after Katrina
• Core claim its not about the true story, its
  about the best communicated story
• Leaders have to get their story out in an arena
  dominated by competition
• Failure can be costly

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Learning

• Learning is expected (DHS)
• Learning is also difficult puzzling and powering
• Pessimists learning from crises is
  counter-productive
• threat-rigidity hypothesis
• Organizations cannot learn
• Sticking to successful lessons of the past
• Politics of accountability

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Lessons from Crisis Research

• Avoidable failures
• Pointers principles

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Avoidable Failures

• Thinking it cannot happen here
• No planning
• Too much belief in the plan
• The paralyzing quest for information
• Waiting for communication
• Command and Control
• Fighting the media
• Playing the Blame Game
• Thinking its over (too soon)

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An Effective Response System

• Short term resilience of citizens, first-line
  responders, and operational leaders
• Long term strategic leadership as a crucial
  variable

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The importance of resilience

• Resilience rapid recombination of available
  resources
• Modernization undermines and facilitates
  resilience
• Primary condition trust (social capital)

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Strategic Leadership Priorities in the First Phase

• Support and facilitate emerging resilience
• Organize outside forces
• Explain what is happening
• Initiate long-term reconstruction
• Bottom line Immediate relief is not an option

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Engineering resilience A leadership
responsibility

• Basic response mechanisms in place
• Training potential responders (how to think for
  themselves)
• Continuous exercising
• Planning as process
• Create mobile units media-style
• Prepare for long-term aftermath
• Create (international) expert network

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Basic response mechanisms

• Warning
• Mobilization
• Registration
• Evacuation
• Shelters
• Emergency medical care
• Search and rescue
• Information dissemination
• Law and order

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Strategic leadership training

• The art of assessment
• Work with the media (monitoring messaging)
• Capitalizing on emerging networks
• Identifying capable partners
• Working with experts

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The art of assessment

• What do we have left?
• What can it do?
• How can we put it together?
• What can we no longer do?
• What do we need?

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Critical constraints

• The symbolic need for a command control myth
• The institutional vulnerability of modern
  mega-cities
• The culture of the risk society
• The politics of crisis management

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Thank you!