Alternative Futures Analysis in the Willamette River Basin

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Alternative Futures Analysis in the Willamette
River Basin
Dr. Stan Gregory Department of Fisheries
Wildlife Oregon State University
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Willamette River Basin, Oregon
Client Willamette Valley Livability Forum
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Other lands are better managed through a
combination of habitat protection and human
activity
Portland, Oregon
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And the river was modified for commerce
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Restoration is the design of an ecologically
sound and livable future
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not a return to past conditions
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Models of stream ecosystem structure and function
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Willamette River Basin 2nd to 4th order streams (
6500 km)
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Cutthroat Trout
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Cutthroat Trout
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EPT Richness
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1850 River Channel
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1995 River Channel
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1850 Floodplain Forest
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1995 Floodplain Forest
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Public Lands
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Conservation Priorities
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Conservation Priorities
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Restoration Priorities
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Restoration Priorities
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Possible Template for Restoration Willamette
River, Oregon
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Memories of Channels Past
1850
1850
1932
1850
1895
1895
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McKenzie- Willamette Junction
Springfield
Eugene
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EvoLand Conceptual Structure
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McKenzie Study Area 7,091 hectares 36
Urban 32 Rural, includes other
vegetation, agriculture, rural 13
Forest 10 Water 9 Roads 40,000 people Small
streams 1.3 Flood plain 0.0
Initial Conditions
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Initial Conditions
50-Yr Conservation Run
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• Initial Conditions
• 36 Urban
• 32 Rural
• 13 Forest
• 10 Water
• 9 Roads
• 40,000 people
• Small streams 1.3
• Flood plain 0.0

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• Conservation
• 36 Urban
• 5 Rural
• 41 Forest
• 10 Water
• 9 Roads
• 65,331 people
• Small streams 2.4
• Flood plain 1.9

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McKenzie Study Area 7,091 hectares 36
Urban 32 Rural, includes other
vegetation, agriculture, rural 13
Forest 10 Water 9 Roads 40,000 people Small
streams 1.3 Flood plain 0.0
Initial Conditions
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50-Yr Development Run
Initial Conditions
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• Initial Conditions
• 36 Urban
• 32 Rural
• 13 Forest
• 10 Water
• 9 Roads
• 40,000 people
• Small streams 1.3
• Flood plain 0.0

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• Development
• 55 Urban
• 5 Rural
• 21 Forest
• 10 Water
• 9 Roads
• 65,300 people
• Small streams 1.4
• Flood plain 3.0

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50-Yr Conservation
50-Yr Conservation Development
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Futuring Conclusions

• Growth boundaries cannot protect both farms and
  fish
• Without growth boundaries, development eliminates
  farms and fish

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Futuring Conclusions

• Ecological change is slow relative to economic
  change
• Restoration of aquatic ecosystems requires
  substantial conversion to forested floodplains
  and riparian areas

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Websites
Willamette Information http//willametteexplo
rer.info Future Scenarios Information
http//oregonstate.edu/dept/pnw-erc Landuse
Change Model http//biosys.bre.orst.edu/evola
nd
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