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Air Platforms Safety and Affordability Technologies

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Adaptive Expert System for Autonomous Detection of Aviation Mishap Leading Indicators ... Mishap rates relatively stagnant for past 20 years. Human factors are ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Air Platforms Safety and Affordability Technologies


1
Air Platforms Safety and Affordability
Technologies
Main Rotor Blade Erosion Coatings
Executing Code ONR Code 35 EC Manager Ms.
Malinda Pagett, ONR Code 352 Product Manager Dr.
David Shifler, ONR Code 332 Product Manager Dr.
David Haas, ONR Code 352/NSWC Carderock
The 2007 Naval ST Partnership Conference is
presented by NDIA with technical support from
ONR DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A Approved for
public release distribution is unlimited.
2
EPE-FY09-03 Air Platforms Safety and
Affordability Technologies
  • ST funding is critical for the safe operation
    and availability of existing aviation assets.
  • The proposed EC focuses on two ST investments
  • Advanced Helicopter Main Rotor Blade Erosion
    Coatings
  • Adaptive Expert System for Autonomous Detection
    of Aviation Mishap Leading Indicators
  • EC Metrics
  • 15 - 20 reduction in H-53 rotor blade returns
    to the depot from a current baseline of 900 per
    year (approx 5.6M) 10x increase in rotor blade
    life from 1,200 to 12,000 hrs
  • 25 reduction in Class A/B mishaps (e.g., would
    equate to reduction of 36 Class A mishaps FY02-06)

3
Enabling Capability Problem Definition
  • Main Rotor Blade Erosion Coating
  • The leading edge degradation of rotor blades by
    sand erosion has become one of the largest
    logistics and maintenance burdens.
  • Rotor blade life reduced to 1,200 hours
  • Demand rates in 2004 52M (AH-64) 100M
    (UH-60) 35M (CH-47)
  • Rain also degrades rotor blades.
  • Ti leading edge protection exhibits a Corona
    effect which makes helicopters an easy target
    from small arms fire.
  • Adaptive Expert System
  • Extended plateau in DON aviation mishap rates
  • Mishap rates relatively stagnant for past 20
    years
  • Human factors are approximately 80 of mishap
    related causal factors.
  • DoD mandated reduction in number of aviation
    mishaps will not accept status quo SECDEF
    memo 22 Jun 06 (DON Aviation FY06- 24 Class A
    mishaps, 25 fatalities, 16 acft destroyed)

4
Enabling Capability Selection
  • Rationale for Technology Selection
  • Current main rotor system blades protection
    (tapes and paints) exhibited widespread rain
    erosion to substrate in less than 41 minutes.
  • Military Flight Operations Quality Assurance
    (MFOQA) is a principal mishap reduction
    initiative that will generate data quantities
    impractical for comprehensive screening by SMEs.
    Advanced automated analytical tools are required
    to maximize detection of mishap leading
    indicators for corrective action prior to mishap.
  • Why Now?
  • Rotor and engine technologies identified in
    NAVAIR Rotorcraft ST Workshop as high priority
    items.
  • To coincide with technology insertion opportunity
    for transition of Adaptive Expert System
    technology module to Phase 2 MFOQA program (PMA
    209) in FY13.

5
Advanced Helicopter Main Rotor Blade Erosion
Coatings
  • Technical Description
  • Technical evaluation of material coatings for
    erosion control on rotor blade leading edges.
  • Exit criteria
  • Abrasion resistance increase by 50.
  • Lifespan increase from 1,200 hrs in erosive
    environment to 12,000 hrs
  • BAA Areas of Interest
  • Integration with rotor blades in existing /
    future rotary aircraft
  • Mass balancing (c.g., mass moments of inertia, )
  • Aerodynamics (surface finish, )
  • Blade section properties (flap / twist stiffness,
    )
  • Strain compatibility with blade
  • Foreign Object Damage (FOD) resistance
  • Deicing and resistance to lightening strike
  • Material qualification
  • Material thermal mechanical properties, sand /
    rain erosion rate resistance to FOD, Solvents,
    Oils, Fuel, UV light, Fungus, Reparability
  • Segment of candidate materials leading edge in
    whirling arm rig for sand / rain erosion and
    impact resistance tests
  • Ground and flight tests Main rotor blades
    fitted with candidate materials

6
Advanced Helicopter Main Rotor Blade Erosion
Coating Current Solutions
  • 3M tape does not provide an adequate solution.
  • High volume-metric sand erosion rate
  • Rain drop impact creates tear quickly
  • With combined sand and rain erosion, damage
    caused by prior sand erosion propagates fast
    under severe water hammer stress
  • Polymeric coating offers 4x improvement over 3M
    tapes, but still not robust.
  • Easy to apply and repair
  • Good for sand erosion resistance as soft polymer
    absorbs impact energy by large elastic
    deformation
  • However, shear stress from rain drop impact
    creates further damage and a longer term erosion
    protection solution is still desired

7
Adaptive Expert System for Autonomous Detection
of Aviation Mishap Leading Indicators
  • Technical Description
  • Development of an Adaptive Expert System to
    automatically and rapidly analyze aircrew
    performance (1M flight hours annually) to detect
    human factors related mishap leading indicators.
    A critical element is determining if a successful
    feedback mechanism can be developed so the expert
    system adaptation process can take place. A new
    technique using anomaly detection and
    corroboration will be developed for use, in lieu
    of current feedback methods used with artificial
    neural networks (i.e., error minimization),
    because it more closely replicates the human
    reasoning process.
  • Exit criteria
  • Acceptance of results by Subject Matter Experts
    80 agreement between automated and manual
    methods
  • Correctly classify and grade 50 of flights
    during assessment with real-world data
  • BAA Areas of Interest
  • Developing the means to replicate the complex
    functionality of human intuitive reasoning to
    monitor the operations of an aircraft fleet in an
    automated fashion and identify indicators of
    potential mishaps using aircraft flight data
  • Notional Path for Development
  • Develop initial analysis model based on available
    operational data.
  • Assess expert system results with control data
    sets implement requisite changes and updates
    validate.
  • Assess validated model utilizing real-world
    aircraft data in a simulated squadron
    environment.

8
Adaptive Expert System for Autonomous Detection
of Aviation Mishap Leading Indicators Current
Solutions / Techniques
Observation
Recognition
Grouping
Examination
Association
Mathematical Relationships
A/C Flight Data
Compare similarities to known groups
SOM
Genetic Algorithms
Clusters
Data Mining
Rule Extraction
Trees
Unsuccessful Prediction
Optimization Adaptation
Corroboration
Sufficient Information
Successful Prediction
Functions performed by current state-of-the-art
techniques.
Neural Networks
Statistics
Knowledge Process 1
Genetic Algorithms
Regression
Knowledge Process 2
Knowledge Process 3
  • The proposed Adaptive Expert System approximates
    the
  • human reasoning process and extends the
    state-of-the-art by incorporating mechanisms for
    corroboration and adaptation within the expert
    system architecture.

Expert system transforms knowledge processes
into actionable output.
9
POINTS OF CONTACT
  • Enabling Capability Manager
  • Ms. Malinda G. Pagett, Code 352
  • 703-588-11047
  • malinda.pagett_at_navy.mil
  • Advanced Helicopter Main Rotor Blade Erosion
    Coating Program Manager
  • Dr. David Shifler, Code 332
  • 703-696-0285
  • david.shifler_at_navy.mil
  • Adaptive Expert System Program Manager
  • Dr. David Haas, Code 352/NSWC Carderock
  • 301-227-1397
  • david.haas_at_navy.mil
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