Japanese Trade Policy and Economic Development , Secrets behind an Economic Miracle

1
???????? ???????? ? ????????????? ???????? ?
?????? Japanese Trade Policy and Economic
Development---???????, ????????????
????????????? ???? Secrets behind an Economic
Miracle

• ????????? ????
• Junichi Goto

2
???????? ????????? Key Messages

• ?????? ??????? ?????????? ???????????? ???????
  ?????????????? ???????? ? ???????????? ? ???? ??
  ?????????? ????? ????, ???????? ?? ??, ???
  ????????? ?????? ?? ????? ?????? ??????? ?????
  ???? ??????????? ??????????. Japan achieved a
  miraculous economic development to become one of
  the richest countries in the world, although the
  World War II almost killed the Japanese economy.
• ????????????? ???????? ?????? ??????? ???????
  ?????????????? ??????????? ?????????????
  ????????, ???????? ???????? ????????????
  ???????. The Japanese economic development was
  generally supported by the expansion of
  international trade, especially exports of
  manufacturing goods.
• ???????, ????????? ??????? ???? ??????????
  ????????????? ????, ??????????? ? ???????????
  ??????????? ????????????? ? ???????? ???????? ?
  ??????? ??????????????? ??????????? ??????. The
  secrets behind the miracle lie in very effective
  economic and trade policies backed by powerful
  and impartial civil service.

3
?? ????????? ?????????? ???????? ???????? - ?
??????? ??????????? From fatal patient to
superstar

4
??????????, ????????? ?????? ??????? ??????
Destruction by the devastating World War II

• ???????????????? ?????? ?????? ? ????? ?????
  ????????? ???? ????? ????? ?? ???????? ??????????
  ?????? ????????????? ???????? ???????????
  ?????????????. The production index of Japan at
  the end of the war was only one-fifth of the
  prewar peak, and international trade was almost
  nil.
• ??????????? ???????? ??????? (?????, ?????, ????,
  ????????) ???? ??????????? ?????????? ?????????
  ??????????????? ??????? (????????????) ???. Most
  major cities, e.g., Tokyo, Osaka, Kobe,
  Hiroshima, etc., was almost destroyed by the
  carpet bombing of the Allied (American) forces.
• ????????? ?????????? ??????? ?????? ????????????,
  - ?????????????? ? ???????. People suffers from
  shortage in every essential goods, such as food
  and energy.
• ????????, ? ??????? ????????? ??????, ????,
  ???????, ????, ??? ??, ? ???????? ??????????
  ???????????? ?????? ????????????? ???????
  ???????. The situation facing Japan then was
  probably worse than many developing countries
  today.
• ???????? ?? ???, ???????? ????????? ??????
  ??????????????, ? ? 1968 ???? ?? ??????? ???
  ?????? ????? ?? ?????? ????? ? ????. However, the
  Japanese economy quickly took off, and in 1968,
  Japanese GDP was the third-largest in the world

5
(No Transcript)
6
??????? ????????????? ???????????? (???) ? 1946
The Priority Production System (PPS) in 1946

• ? ??????? ??? ???? ??????? ??????? ??????
  ?????????????? - ????????? ??????? ????
  ????????????? ? ???? ?????????? ?????? ????????
  ???????? ? ?????????????. The PPS tried to start
  reconstruction process by concentrating available
  resources on two critical industries, coal and
  steel.
• ???? ?????????????? ??????? ???????? ???????
  ?????????? ???????????? The recovery plan was
  called inclined production system
• ?.?. ??????????? ???? ??????? ????? ???????? ?
  ????????????? ??????, ? ????? ??? ????????????
  ????? ?????????????? ??? ?????? ????. i.e.,
  almost entire production of coal was put in steel
  production, and almost entire production of steel
  was put in coal production.
• ???? ??????? ?????????? ?? ??? ???, ???? ??
  ??????? ???????????? ??? ??? ???????? ??????
  ???????. The process was repeated until two vital
  industries revived.

7
??????? 2 ????? ????? ????????? ??? ? ??????
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
percent
10.0
5.0
0.0
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
-5.0
year
8
??????? 1 ???????????? ????? ????????? ????? ????
???
????????? ???
(????????, ????.)
(????????, ????.)
??????
???
???????.
????????
??????
???
?????.
????????
1950
109
2883
377
234
131
1897
744
468
1960
440
5153
727
722
468
2852
1390
1302
1970
2033
10155
1249
1846
1949
4952
2254
3041
1980
10632
27319
5353
8185
9103
11996
9567
13296
1990
30522
58033
9946
15470
24718
23209
17377
24458
2000
47661
98247
14409
18752
37574
34796
24571
22844
(??????, ??? 100.0)
(??????, ??? 100.0)
??????
???
?????.
????????
??????
???
?????.
????????
1950
3.8
100.0
13.1
8.1
6.9
100.0
39.2
24.7
1960
8.5
100.0
14.1
14.0
16.4
100.0
48.7
45.7
1970
20.0
100.0
12.3
18.2
39.4
100.0
45.5
61.4
1980
38.9
100.0
19.6
30.0
75.9
100.0
79.8
110.8
1990
52.6
100.0
17.1
26.7
106.5
100.0
74.9
105.4
2000
48.5
100.0
14.7
19.1
108.0
100.0
70.6
65.7
(????????) IMF
9
??????? 3 ???? ?????? ? ??????? ???????? Share
of Japan in World Export
10
9
8
7
6
???????t
5
4
3
2
1
0
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
???r
10
36,654
13,971
1969
5,756
5,408
348
1999
47,548
35,268
12,280
1970
6,954
6,797
157
2000
51,654
40,938
10,716
1971
8,393
6,910
1,483
2001
48,979
42,416
6,563
1972
8,806
7,229
1,577
2002
52,109
42,228
9,881
1973
10,031
10,404
-373
2003
54,549
44,319
10,230
1974
16,208
18,076
-1,868
( ????????) ???????????? ???????? ??????
11
????????? ???????, ???????????? ?????????????
???? Some Secrets behind the Miracle

12
??????? ??????? ? ???????? ? ????????
??????????? ?? ?????? A puzzle export
incentive under import restrictions

• ? ?????? ???? ?????? ? ?????? ??? ??????
  ????????? ? ????? ???????? ?????????????
  ??????????????. In early years, Japanese imports
  were heavily restricted to protect domestic
  producers
• ????? ?????????? ????? ??????? ?? ???????????
  ???????????, ?????????? ???? ?????? ????, ???
  ???????. When domestic market is protected from
  foreign competition, domestic price of a good is
  higher than international price.
• ????? ???????, ????????????? ?????????????? ?
  ???, ????? ????????????? ????????? ?? ?????
  ??????? ???? ?? ?????????? ?????, ?????? ???
  ???????? ?? ???????. So, producers have incentive
  to sell to the domestic market for higher price
  than to foreign market.
• ??? ?? ?????, ???????? ????????????? ?????????
  ??? ?????? ? ????, ????? ?????????????? ????
  ????????? (????., ?????, ?????????? ? ??????????)
  ?? ??????? ?????. However, Japanese producers
  made every effort to export their products (e.g.,
  textiles, TVs and cars) to the world
• ??????? Why?

13
????????????? ????????? ????????? ????????
Various support programs for exports

• ??????? ???????????????, ????????????? ???????
  Export-promoting tax system
• ??????????? ?????? ?????????? ??????????? Special
  deduction of export income
• ??????? ?????????? ?????? Import tariff refund
• ??????????????, ????????????? ???????
  Export-promoting financing
• ?????? ?? ????????? ???????? ????? ?????????
  Pre-shipment export bill discount
• ???????? ???? ?????????-????????? ????????
• ?????? ? 1951 ?. ? ????? ??????????????
  ????????????? ? ???????????? ?????? ??? ?????????
  ??????????, ????????? ???????? ? ???????? ? ???.
• Japan Export-Import Bank
• Established in 1951 to provide medium and
  long-term loans for exports, import and foreign
  direct investment.

14
????????????? ???????? ???? Favorable foreign
exchange rate

• ? 1949 ?. ???? ???? ? ??????? ??? ?????????? ??
  ?????? 360 ??? ? ?????? ??????? ???. In 1949, the
  yen-dollar rate was set at 360 yen to one dollar.
• ???? ???? ?????????? ?? ??????? 1971 ????, ?????
  ??????? ???????? ??????? ??????????? ????????????
  ???????????. The rate was maintained until August
  1971, when the world currency system experienced
  major earthquake.
• ??? ????? ????? ???????? ???? ???? ???????????
  ???????????, ??? ?????????????? ??????????
  ????????? ????????. At the rate, Japanese yen was
  generally undervalued, which contributed to the
  expansion of Japanese exports.
• ?????? ? ???, ????????? ?????????? ???????????
  ?????? ??????, ??? ??? ??-?? ???????? ????????
  ?????????????? ? ???????? ????? ?????????????
  ??????????? ????? ??????????? ? ???????????.
  However, it is dangerous to maintain
  undervaluation of own currency, because such a
  policy makes eventual adjustment more drastic and
  painful one.
• ?????? ?????? ???????. Japan was just lucky.

15
?????????? ??????? Export contest

• ? ???, ????? ????????????? ???????, ?????????????
  ?????? ????? ????????? ????????? ??????????
  ????????? ????? ???? ? ???, ????? ??????????
  ?????? ?? ??????????? ? ?? ??????????????. In
  order to encourage exports, the Japanese
  government set up many export contests among
  firms to combine the benefits of competition and
  cooperation.
• ???????, ??????? ? ????? Rewards, rules, and
  referees
• ??????? ???????? ?????? ? ??????? ? ????????
  ????????? Rewords preferential access to credit
  and foreign exchange
• ??????? ??????????? ? ???????? ???????????
  ?????, ??????? ???????? ????????????? ????????
  ????????. Rules the one who achieved the largest
  values of exports is the winner of the contest
• ????? ??????????????? ?????????, ?????????????
  ??????? ???????? ? ???????????????? ??? ??? (???
  ??????? ?????? ???????????? ? ???????????????).
  Referees government officials who have designed
  and supervised the contest (generally very
  competent and impartial)

16
??????????? ? ??????????????? ???????
??????????????? ?????? Powerful and impartial
civil service

• ??????????? ??????? Powerful
• ????????? ????????? ????????????? ????
  (??????????? ??? ?????? ????????? ???????????)
  Parliament is symbolic. (Almost all laws are
  prepared by bureaucrat)
• ?????? ?????????? ? ???? ???????, ????? ? ??????
  ?????????? ??????????? ????????????????
  ???????????. In addition to enacted laws,
  administrative guidance is oftend used and very
  effective.
• ??????????????? ? ??????????? ??????? Impartial
  and effective
• ?? ????? ?? ????? ???????????? ????? ???????????
  ???????? ?? ???????????????-??????????????
  ???????? De fact head of the ministry is
  administrative vice-ministe
• ??? ?????? ????????? ??? ??????????? ??
  ??????????????? ?????? Three classes of entrance
  examinations
• ????????? ???????? ? ?????????? ????????????
  ????. Prestigious university is cheaper.
• ??????????? ? ????????? ??????? ?? ?????? ?????
  ????? ??????? ?? ?????? ??????? ???????????
  ???????? (? ???? ???? ?????? ????????!). Smart
  sons of very poor family could (and often did)
  become top of the bureaucracy.

17
???????????????? ?????? ???????? ?? ?????????
Manufacturing sector scale economies

• ?????? ??????? ???????? ???????? ????????
  ???????????? ???????, ?????, ??? ????????
  ??????????. Japan put an emphasis on exports of
  manufactured goods, such as cars.
• ??? ???????????????? ??????????, ???????????? ?
  ???????????? ???????, ?????????? ???????? ??
  ????????? (??? ?????? ????? ???????????? ???
  ???? ??????? ???????????????? ????????)
  Production technology of manufacturing sector is
  often characterized as scale economies (the more
  you produce, the less is your average production
  cost)
• ??????? ???????? ????????????? ?????????????? ?
  ???, ????? ??????????? ?????? ?????????, - ??
  ?????? ??? ???????????, ?? ? ??? ???????? ?????.
  So, Japanese producers had incentive to produce
  more, not only for domestic market but also for
  foreign market.
• ????? ???????, ??????, ????????, ??????????
  ???????? ?????????? ? ??? ??????????? ?????, ? ??
  ???????. Thus, for example, Toyota produces cars
  for both domestic and export market.

18
???????? ?????? ? ?????????????
???????????????????? ?????? A Caveat weak and
inefficient agricultural sector

• ????????????? ??????? ???????? ?????? ?????????
  ?????? ? ????????????? ??????? (????.,
  ???????????? ???????? ??????????? ?
  ?????????????????). The above success stories
  only apply to manufacturing sector, such as cars
  and VCRs.
• ???????? ????????? ?????? ??????????? ?
  ???????????? ???? ???????? ?? ???????????
  ???????????. The agricultural sector of Japan has
  been heavily protected from foreign competition.
• ???, ?? ????????? ??????? ? ?????? ??????????
  ??????????? ?????? ?????? ?? ?????? ????, -
  ????????? ???????? ??????? ???????. For example,
  until recently, Japan had imposed almost total
  ban on the import of rice, a staple food for the
  Japanese.
• ??? ??????? ????????? ????, ??? ????????
  ????????? ?????? ?????? ???? ?????
  ??????????????????? ?? ??????? ?????. There are
  no sign of hope to make Japanese agriculture
  sector more competitive in the international
  market.
• ???????? ???????? ? ???????? ????????? ??????
  ??????????, ????????? ?????? ??????????
  ????????????? (???????? ?????? ??? ???????????? ?
  ?????????? ??????????? ??????????????
  ????????????). The current situation of Japanese
  agriculture shows how bad excessive protection
  can be (huge loss to consumers and the
  continuation of very inefficient production.