Global Warming Effects on New Jerseys Bays, Estuaries, and Wetlands

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Global Warming Effects on New Jerseys Bays,
Estuaries, and Wetlands Michael J.
Kennish Institute of Marine and Coastal
Sciences Rutgers University
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RANKING OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS 1. Habitat
Loss and Alteration 2. Eutrophication 3.
Sewage 4. Fisheries Overexploitation 5.
Chemical Contaminants Higher Priority
(Synthetic Organic Compounds) Lower Priority
(PAHs, Metals, Radionuclides) 6. Freshwater
Diversions 7. Introduced Species 8. Sea
Level Rise 9. Subsidence 10.
Debris/Litter (Plastics)
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• SUBSIDENCE
• Modified Shoreline Habitat
• Degraded Wetland
• Accelerated Fringe Erosion
• Open Water Habitat Expansion

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Coastal Bays

• Central and Southern New Jersey Coastline
• Lagoon-type Estuaries
• Discontinuous (Inland Bays)
• Surface Area 460 km²
• Depth 1-1.5 m
• Width lt5 km
• Watershed 5,200 km²

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Human impacts on shoreline alter response to
climate change
Pete Peterson, Mike Piehler, Rick Luettich and
Chris Buzzelli
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Impact of sea level rise on New Jersey
As sea level rises so does the potential flood
impact
We will lose some land.
Sea level rise (m)
0.61 1.22 2.90
Area lost (km2)
Total 171 442 1251 Wetlands
83 83 72 Forest 2
2 5 Beach 3 3
5 Urban 10 10 16
Industrial 1 1
2 Agriculture 0.2 0.2 4
What will be the economic and environmental
impacts? What should NJ do?
Cooper, Beevers, and Oppenheimer 2005
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Responses of Wetland Ecosystems their Functions

• Functions
• Biogeochemical
• Hydrological
• Habitat

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CHOWAN RIVER ESTUARY HIGH SEDIMENT BANK
PRE-HURRICANE ISABEL 9/18/03
SHORELINE EROSION STORM - 80 ft
LONG-TERM AVE. - 3 ft/yr
POST-HURRICANE ISABEL 9/18/03
from Riggs Ames 2003
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Shore-Zone Modification in Response to Sea Level
Rise Disturbance
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Estuaries Are Warming
Chesapeake Bay warmed 0.81.1 oC (1949-2002)
Surface temperature trends
Sub-surface temperature trends
Preston 2004 Env. Mgt.
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• SPECIES RANGE EXPANSIONS
• 36 of 39 Marine Invertebrate Species
• Poleward Range Expansions
• 24 of 24 Marine Zooplankton Species
• Poleward Range Expansions
• (Parmesan and Yohe. 2003. Nature
  421 37-41.)
• SouthernNorthern Coastal Bird Species
• at Cape Cod (20th Century)
• More Southern Overwintering Species
• (Valiela and Bowen. 2003. Ambio 32
  476-480.)

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Sav slide
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BIRDS MAMMALS REPTILES INSECTS
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NJ GLOBAL WARMING EFFECTS (2000-2100) Surface
Temperature Increase (1.4-5.8 Deg. C) Sea Level
Rise (0.5-1 m) Transgressing Ocean (Coastal
Inundation) Retreating Shoreline (gt20
m) Barrier Island Overwash Habitat
Fragmentation and Destruction Changing Aquatic
Communities (ltBiodiversity) Landward Shift of
Coastal Ecosystems (e.g., Wetlands) Coastal
Flooding Saltwater Intrusion Loss of
Croplands Displacement of Coastal
Residents
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The End
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Potential opening of outer banks from storms
From Stan Riggs
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Albemarle-Pamlico Sound(NOAA Sea-level Rise
Projects)
Albemarle Sound
Neuse River
Point Peter Rd.
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• Sea Lettuce

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US HAZARDS AREAS IN DARK RED ARE LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE LOSSES AT LEAST 45 TIMES GREATER THAN
LOWER RISK DARK GREEN ZONES
ABOUT 47 HURRICANES HAVE HIT THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST DURING THE 20TH CENTURY!
DATA FROM RISK MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS, INC
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