RURALURBAN DYNAMICS

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RURAL-URBAN DYNAMICS

• Modelling and Predicting Land Use Changes in
  Peri-Urban Interface in Dar Es Salaam City,
  Tanzania

Mr. Aloyce Masanja Department of Urban Regional
Planning University of Dar es Salaam Tanzania
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Conceptual Framework
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RURAL URBAN DYNAMICSModelling and Predicting
Land Use Changes in the Peri-Urban Interface of
Dar es Salaam City in Tanzania

• The Project aim to model and explain the
  interaction between socio-economics and
  biophysical factors in the Peri-Urban interface.
• It takes into account two major land uses that
  are influenced by mankind agricultural and
  urban land uses.
• The model will simulate the changes of land use
  in the interface
• This project builds upon another study done by
  Mwamfupe (1994), Masanja (1999) in an African
  context and Lupala Masanja (2002). All the
  studies confirmed high level of rural to urban
  migration to the peri-urban interface,
  socio-economic activities and agricultural land
  transformation without guidance.
• The studies confirmed the urban growth without
  proper land use planning so poor infrastructure
  and other basic services.

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The Problem

• Urbanization, which is pushing agriculture to
  less suitable land with unintended results.
• The long term threat than agricultural land loss
  is urban encroachment into fragile ecosystem
  intensive land use with poor planning without
  data.
• Squatting is commonly found in watershed
  catchments areas, protected lands and lands
  subject to flooding or tidal inundations.
• The city proper has been growing at the expense
  of the peri-urban areas.
• The impacts are two fold damage to the
  environment and threat to health and well-being
  of residents who live there (vulnerability).

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The Objectives

• To identify the drivers of land use change in the
  peri-urban interface.
• To establish the links between human dimensions
  and land use change
• To develop databases on urban growth and land use
  change drivers.
• To develop models that depicting the existing
  land use pattern and predict the future land use
  change under different scenarios over time and
  space.
• To formulate policy implications and
  recommendations for future land use planning and
  management.

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Approach and Design

• Both qualitative and Quantitative Approach.
• Use of Landsat Images in classification of land
  use
• Modelling land use by use multivariate regression
  models, Focus Group Mapping, GIS model for
  databases.
• Use of Demproj model demographic change and
  prediction
• Participatory workshops for solution search

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Outputs

• An improved understanding of land use change
  drivers in the peri-urban environment.
• A qualitative approach as a working methodology
  for spatial structures indicating components of
  vulnerability drivers of land use changes.
• A GIS dadabases for planning and policy
  formulations
• A spatially explicit and dynamic models
  explaining aspects of land use changes.
• Maps indicating hot spot that indicates areas of
  future land use changes

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Contribution to the LUCC science

• The project contribute directly to the goals of
  the LUCC science plan foci 1,2 3
• The project aim to model empirically the
  relationship between socio-economic dynamics and
  biophysical factors in the peri-urban interface.
• The time series databases of satellite imagery
  and GIS model will contribute significantly to
  Focus 2 of LUCC science plan
• Modelling land use change with demographic change
  and migration will improve the understanding of
  the relationship of Rural-Urban Dynamics.

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Application of the Outputs Beyond the science
community

• Planners may use the dynamic data to evaluate
  environmental impacts, to delineate urban growth,
  boundaries or services, to develop land use
  zoning plans and to gauge future land use change.
  
• The data can be utilized by hydrologists to
  evaluate new water sources for future
  urbanization and analyse water pollution and
  problems common in urban areas.
• The amount and degree of water pollution in
  rivers, lakes and bays can be predicted in the
  basis of past and future trends in land use
  changes.
• Geologists can use the data on land use change to
  evaluate the availability of building materials
  such as sand, gravel, and cement. They can use
  the data to predict the impacts of future natural
  disasters and the potential damage they may
  cause.
• Biologists can use the data of land use change to
  compile maps on habitant species, distribution
  and land management. Prediction about future
  urbanization are critical to the protection of
  ecosystem and sustainability of communities.
• Policy makers can use the data to formulate
  policies and interventions for future development
  of the city.