Assimilative Capacity Study Overview Barrie Land Developers Association April 26th, 2005

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Assimilative Capacity StudyOverviewBarrie Land
Developers AssociationApril 26th, 2005

• Rob Baldwin
• ACS Project Manager

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• Assimilative Capacity is defined as
• the capability of the watercourse and/or lake to
  resist the effects of landscape disturbance
  without impairment of water quality

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• Background
• MOE requested the development of a TOR for both
  Lake Simcoe and Nottawasaga River
• Studies are pieces of an overall program being
  developed by the Province (IGAP)
• Growth pressures significant in Simcoe, Barrie
  and Orillia
• Studies providing the direct linkage between land
  use and water quality

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• Study Purpose
• Assess the assimilative capacity of the
  watercourses and receiving water bodies for Lake
  Simcoe basin and Nottawasaga River watershed.
• Produce an assimilative capacity model to predict
  the impacts of land use change on water quality

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• Study Delivery
• Lead agency is the LSRCA with partnership and
  assistance from the NVCA
• Provincial ministries involved include MMAH, MOE
  and MNR
• Two committee governance structure with Steering
  and Technical Committees being shared

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• Communications Working Group
• CA, Agency and Municipal Reps.
• Peer Review Committee
• Reports through the Technical Committee
• Consist of recognized academics and specialists
  in the various disciplines

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• Timing CRITICAL
• Must be completed within year timeframe
• Start Date Well Underway
• End Date
• Draft final reports due to the Steering Committee
  and Ministries on November 30/05
• MOU expires December 31/05

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• Funding
• 100 funding from Province
• 1,000,000 for Lake Simcoe Studies
• 500,000 for Nottawasaga River Studies
• MOU between LSRCA and MOE
• All consultant contracts will be between the
  LSRCA and the consultant

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ACS Workplan

• Technical Overview

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ACS Workplan

• Watershed Model Process

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• Problem Identification
• Characterize the general water quality issues in
  both study areas
• Draft list of indicators/nutrients for each area
• Identify key point and non-point sources
• Data gaps that exist

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• Develop Numeric Qualitative Targets
• Select indicators at a facilitated workshop with
  broad representation
• Establish numeric targets for selected indicators
  (e.g. phosphorus, TSS)
• Establish water uses for tributaries in both
  study areas

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• Source Assessment - Modeling
• Detailed inventory/assessment of nutrient sources
• Requires detailed land use/vegetation mapping
• Key activity is detailed computer water quality
  modeling - CANWET

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• CANWET Canadian ArcView Nutrient Water
  Evaluation Tool
• Phase II Pilot project Provincial Investment
• Devp in partnership with the NVCA
• Already one pilot watershed in each area is
  completed
• Undergoing ongoing development and enhancement at
  University of Guelph and Penn State
• US version used to develop TMDLs

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• CANWET Model Cont.
• Will be used to predict daily/monthly/yearly
  loads for selected parameters
• Will assist in developing TMDLs
• Will develop the baseline or existing
  conditions for each subwatershed
• Primarily tool to be used in evaluating various
  land use scenarios and OP committments

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ACS Workplan

• Lake / Mixing Zone Model Process

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• Problem Identification
• Characterize the general water quality issues in
  both study areas
• Draft list of indicators/nutrients for each area
• Identify key point and non-point sources
• Data gaps that exist

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• Lake and Mixing Zone Model
• Two distinct differences
• Lake Simcoe is confined large lake
• Nottawasaga Bay is part of larger Georgian Bay
  and Lake Huron
• Different models applied for each
• Lake Simcoe 2 models applied empirical and
  mechanistic
• Nottawasaga Bay mixing zone model

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• Develop Numeric Qualitative Targets
• Nottawasaga Bay
• Consultant will present mixing zone models to
  Technical Committee for selection
• Mixing zone model will be completed
• Various parameters (ie. P, bacteria) can me
  modeled in mixing zone
• Determination of extent of mixing zone to be
  confirmed
• Determine targets for various parameters

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• Develop Numeric Qualitative Targets
• Lake Simcoe
• Empirical model will be updated to include recent
  data by MOE
• Consultant has been retained to develop a 3D and
  hydrodynamic model for the lake
• Determine annual P loads
• Consider other parameters (zebra mussel, large
  bays)

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• Lake Simcoe Specific Deliverables
• Includes revisions, updates and expansion to the
  existing empirical model
• Updated P loads
• Development of a new mechanistic model
• Detailed model to understand lake processes, role
  of zebra mussels, large bays
• Results will be used to refine LSEMS water
  quality management objectives

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• Nottawasaga River Specific Deliverables
• Mixing zone model for the Nottawasaga Bay area
  where the Nottawasaga River enters the bay
• Understand mixing zone processes and dynamics of
  Nottawasaga Bay

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ACS Workplan

• TMDL Development and Load Allocation

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• TMDLs Total Maximum Daily Loads
• Developed by US EPA
• Quantified measure of the total daily load for a
  parameter
• Sum of all loading sources point, non-point and
  natural background
• Are developed based on the existing conditions
  and watersheds capacity
• Used as a tool in guiding growth management,
  monitoring

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• Load Allocation Reduction
• Determining the load allocations or define
  acceptable loading (with safety margins)
• Final determination of TMDLs for
  catchment/subwatershed areas
• TMDLs developed in respect to standards
• Load allocation/reduction analysis
• Load limit for each catchment/watershed/lake/mixin
  g zone

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ACS Workplan

• Application and Implementation

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• Implementation Plan
• Analysis of existing approved OP commitments
  associated land use change in respect to TMDLs
  and existing conditions
• Analysis of BMPs (present and future)
• Site level assessment of proposed land use change
• Pollutant/nutrient loading reduction strategies
• Process to revise/adapt TMDLs

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• Model/s Tool/s
• The models are intended to be tools to
• Improve land use planning decisions at
  provincial, municipal and local levels
• Assist in decision making/review of proposed
  projects and undertakings in respect to various
  legislative and/or municipal req's. (ie. EAs)
• Provide direction for stewardship activities
• Predict impacts/benefits and assist in monitoring
• Can be used to generate predicted costs of
  various stewardship practices and BMPs