What is to be done

1
What is to be done?
the Philippines confronts yet another political
crisis, July 2005
2
Outline

• Introduction perspective
• Part 1 Where are we?
• Part 2 What is to be done?
• Part 3 Where do we want to go?

3
Introduction Perspective

• Political landscapes
• Critical junctures shifting
• Listen

4
PART 1 WHERE ARE WE?

• Two immediate cases vs. GMA
• her family received "jueteng" payoffs
• wiretapped telephone conversation which may be
  evidence of fraud in the May 2004 election
• GMA admitted and apologized
• GMA-resign calls from various sectors
• Surveys register serious GMA unpopularity
• She will not resign

5
General situation

• Political stalemate
• Divisions in key sectors result in paralysis
• Differences in articulation of the problem
• Differences in solutions proposed
• Difficulty of getting to consensus
• Economy jittery
• Major development works squeaking through

6
Major positions and players

• 1. GMA should stay on and lets get on with the
  business of governing
• Loyalists in cabinet
• Lakas-CMD, NP, LP-Atienza
• LGU leagues
• El Shaddai

7
Major positions and players

• 2. GMA should resign
• Cory Aquino, some church leaders, some business
  leaders
• Hyatt 10
• LP-Drilon
• Erap-FPJ groups
• Left-oriented groups of various shades
• Lacson, de Villa, Roco, Bangon Pilipinas
• University groups, academics, students

8
Major positions and players

• 3. Neutral as to GMAs resignation
• Military establishment and leadership
• CBCP seeking truth gtgt with echoes of critical
  collaboration
• BBC and other business groups
• Some university groups and academics

9
Where do Filipinos stand and why is there no
moral outrage?

• Complex issues, confusion, multiple options and
  combinations
• Situation in constant flux
• Authenticity of evidence still in question
• People-power fatigue
• No acceptable alternative leader
• No credible champion
• Pragmatic considerations
• Piecemeal reforms

10
PART 2 WHAT IS TO BE DONE?

• Accountability of the President
• GMA herself, with regard to the tapes
• GMA as president, answerable to the people
• Political survival of GMA cannot be equated with
  the political survival of the state itself
• Search for solutions that will be most
  sustainable, that will not jeopardize future
  development as much hence the bias for
  constitutionality and non-violence
• Phases (1) immediate (2) long-term

11
Resolution of crisis

• Impeachment
• Truth Commission
• If GMA goes
• Constitutional succession VP Noli de Castro
• VP must also go, after which the constitutional
  means is special elections
• Revolutionary transition government High
  Commission Council of leaders Junta

12
At the base and over the long haul

• Let people discuss the issues and propose
  solutions, and begin building consensus
• Organize groups
• Mobilizations for truth
• Keep communication lines open with other groups
  dialogue
• Clarify visions for reform in concrete proposals

13
Dream situation

• Impeachment proceeds in Congress
• Establishment of a truly independent Truth
  Commission, with a clear mandate detailing its
  authority, powers, and relationship to the
  impeachment process
• Both impeachment process and Truth Commission run
  their courses
• Should GMA step down, VP agrees to heading a
  caretaker government with a strong cabinet and a
  clear endpoint, while charter change is
  discussed, proposed, and ratified

14
PART 3 WHERE DO WE WANT TO GO?

• Calls for charter change and institutional
  reforms should be distinguished from the
  resolution of the present political crisis
• Reforms electoral, political, bureaucratic
• Electoral reforms
• Automation
• Comelec revamp and reform of selection process
• Desynchronize local and national elections

15
Political reforms

• Political party system reforms possibilities for
  increased proportional representation in the
  legislature
• Campaign financing and regulation of private
  contributions
• Legislation to implement the constitutional ban
  on political dynasties
• Reinforce decentralization, and initiate gradual
  federalization
• Establish a type of parliamentary government that
  would correspond to Filipino culture
• Regulate political appointments by the Chief
  Executive

16
Bureaucratic reforms

• Strengthen and further professionalize the Civil
  Service
• Continue anti-corruption measures, e.g. programs
  of the Office of the Ombudsman
• Improve and Implement the Procurement Act
• Devolution and fiscal decentralization
• Support initiatives towards judicial reform